835
FXUS64 KSHV 052005
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
305 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening and
into the overnight hours ahead of an incoming frontal boundary from
the north. Outlooks still do not highlight much in the way of severe
weather developing with this activity, but a few storms becoming
strong will still be a possibility overnight. If stronger storms do
develop, the primary threat will possibly be damaging winds.

The incoming boundary looks to stall and become quasi-stationary,
trapping in place persistent rainfall chances through the day
Saturday, with the greatest chances being south of the Interstate 30
corridor. Thunder will be likely throughout, but widespread
organized severe weather is not yet in the cards.

Low temperatures tonight will range considerably depending on
rain cooling effects and cloud cover. Further north, lower 70s and
even a few upper 60s will be possible, with mid to upper 70s
south. Tomorrow, with rainfall having finally overtaken the
region, highs will only reach the lower 90s with a few sites
possibly only in the upper 80s.

Rainfall looks to taper off Saturday evening and possibly remain
quiet through the entire night, as temperatures fall into the upper
60s north to middle 70s south.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Sunday morning will see a renewed round of showers and storms move
into the ArkLaTex, with precip chances continuing throughout the
course of the day. By this point, the upper level pattern will be
somewhat in flux, with the high off to our east over the Florida
peninsula, the trough responsible for the boundary forcing this
new moisture to the north over the Plains and Midwest, and of
course Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico, which looks to be returning to
hurricane strength by this time as is treks northwest towards the
Texas coastline.

The bottom line for the ArkLaTex is that we are closely monitoring
Beryl, as the latest model runs suggest it will arc to the northeast
upon its landfall, bringing impacts to the ArkLaTex early next week,
likely beginning late Monday into Tuesday depending on the extent of
the rain field. When combined with the existing moisture in the form
of convection being stirred up by our stationary boundary, this will
bring with it the possibility of flash flooding across much of the
Four State Region, especially east Texas and into north Louisiana
and southern Arkansas, with the ERO for Tuesday featuring a Slight
Risk including the aforementioned regions, and further upgrades
are not being ruled out as of this writing.

Depending on the structure, organization and coverage expanse of
Beryl as it treks northeastward, severe weather impacts to the
ArkLaTex are not out of the realm of possibility. However, there are
too many variables at this time to say much beyond that we will be
closely monitoring the development of this tropical system.

The nature of Beryl`s interactions with the upper level troughing
will be of enormous consequence for the latter days of this extended
forecast. In broad strokes, it seems reasonable at this point to
anticipate a breakdown in the TC`s organization as it gets absorbed
into the trough. This troughing looks to remain very much in
place due north as ridging over the Intermountain West and ridging
over the Atlantic coast help hold it in place, continuing to
deluge the ArkLaTex with daily chances for showers and storms
through next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable throughout
if not below average, with highs in the lower 90s possible only
climbing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, while lows
remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

/26/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the 05/18Z TAF period,
although brief periods of MVFR cigs/reduced vsbys will be possible
this afternoon through early to mid evening in and near scattered
convection that is developing near and behind a weak sfc front and
various outflow bndrys. Have inserted VCTS into all terminals
except LFK for the afternoon, and tempoed thunder mention with the
potential for MVFR cigs, reduced vsbys, and wind gusts to 30+ kts.
This convection should eventually shift S into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA
by late afternoon/early evening before ending. In their wake, low
AC cigs and convective debris will linger over much of the region
through the evening/overnight hours, before thinning late. Patchy
FG and low MVFR/IFR cigs may develop after 09Z across portions of
Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, before lifting by mid-morning. Elsewhere,
areas of stratocu and brief MVFR cigs will be possible by mid and
late morning Saturday, before eventually scattering out for the
afternoon. VRB or NW winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become
light NE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  77  93 /  50  50  10  40
MLU  73  91  74  90 /  60  50  10  50
DEQ  69  91  68  90 /  10  10   0  30
TXK  73  93  73  93 /  30  20   0  30
ELD  71  91  70  90 /  40  20   0  30
TYR  74  91  74  93 /  40  40  10  30
GGG  74  91  74  92 /  40  50  10  40
LFK  75  91  74  93 /  40  70  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15