Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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956 FXUS64 KSJT 010816 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 MCS rolling across the Big Country early this morning and will likely be clearing the eastern portions of the area before sunrise. So far it has pretty much stayed below severe levels and it is likely to stay this way. Outflow from the storms have surged south well ahead of the storms and into the Concho Valley and Heartland with gusts over 40 mph hear at the San Angelo airport. Given the fast movement, this outflow appears like it will continue to push south and out of the area later this morning, removing 1 focus for convective redevelopment this afternoon. Latest CAMs do not show a lot of development for the afternoon across West Central Texas, with just a little across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos late this afternoon working its way east into the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau for the evening. Given the air mass, will keep some small POPs in for the afternoon hours with a little better chances for the western portions of the area for tonight. Temperatures are pretty close to normal, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 HRRR does show another outflow settling south into West Central Texas for Sunday, with better chance for more convection Sunday afternoon. Other CAMs are not as aggressive. Will generally carry slight chance to chance POPs for Sunday and later forecasts can fine tune based on whatever boundaries that get spawned today and where they end up tomorrow. Otherwise, upper level ridge gradually builds into the area for early in the week and this allows temperatures to soar to near or above the 100 degree mark through mid week. Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day with highs 102 to 106 in some areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. A complex of storms is moving southeast out of Lubbock towards our area. Have included a TS group for KABI with VCTS for KSJT as a gradual but slow weakening trend is expected as this complex progresses. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to build north during the early morning hours, mainly impacting our southern sites. Confidence in this stratus building all the way to KSJT is medium-low at this time but a brief MVFR group may need to be added with the next update. Ceilings will lift back to VFR by the late morning with wind gusts picking up out of the southeast during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 69 89 72 / 20 20 30 20 San Angelo 93 69 92 73 / 20 20 20 10 Junction 94 71 95 75 / 20 20 10 10 Brownwood 87 69 88 72 / 20 20 20 20 Sweetwater 89 69 91 72 / 20 30 30 20 Ozona 91 69 90 72 / 20 30 10 10 Brady 86 69 88 72 / 20 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...50