Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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407 FXUS62 KTAE 232357 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 757 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Hot temperatures will once again be present across the entire area as the region remains on the eastern periphery of a deep upper level ridge centered over Texas with 588-594 dm 500mb heights over the tri- state area. 850mb heights around 18-20 degrees Celsius will also allow for deep mixing and high temperatures to reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees once again on Monday. This mixing has so far kept much of the areas dewpoint temperatures from reaching the low to mid 70s areawide, which has effectively kept advisory level heat indices at bay so far today. This deep layer mixing is expected to occur again on Monday, which has swayed the decision to not issue a heat advisory for portions of Florida. These temperatures will continue to be monitored closely this afternoon as the seabreeze surges north and brings with it higher dewpoints. If advisory level heat index values develop later this evening, this will increase the confidence to issue one for Monday as well in subsequent forecast updates. Another wrench into the forecast for Monday`s high temperatures is the passage of a cold front from an upper level system currently moving that is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. through the northeast today. This cold front is expected to increase rain chances, and bring a broken line of showers and thunderstorms through the region during the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest chances for thunderstorm coverage appears to be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend as the front converges with higher dewpoints from an inland surge of moisture from the seabreeze. The largest impact from these storms will likely be gusty winds and frequent lightning, but will overall bring much needed rain to the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Upper level ridging to our west and semi-zonal flow ridging gives way due to a trough building to our north. This will lead to light northwesterly flow through the period. At the surface, high pressure sits just to our northeast which should squander widespread shower and thunderstorm developing while nurturing unseasonably hot conditions. The best chance for rain and thunderstorm chances should be along the seabreeze. Highs for Tuesday along the coast will be in the low to mid 90s and the increase to the upper 90s to near 100 along and north of I-10. The heat indicies will generally range from 100 to 110, which may lead to another Heat Advisory for the FL counties and and up into the first tier of counties north of the FL/GA and FL/AL border. Confidence is too low to hoist one now as we need to see how dew points trend on Monday. Opted to lower them a hair based on how this afternoon (Sunday afternoon) performed. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Broad upper level troughing will hold through at least the work week, with the cluster analysis showing some weak zonal or weak ridging trying to develop Friday into Saturday. Expect northwesterly flow aloft to hold while southwest to westerly flow comes in at the surface. The toasty trend continues through this period, though precip chances increase a hair over land due to the potential disturbances passing overhead. This could tweak the temperature forecast a bit, but for now left general NBM guidance in. In terms of precip, generally scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with scattered to widespread storms being possible if those disturbances make it to us. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Convection has dissipated for tonight and will not be of concern again until Monday. Highest confidence in TSRA on Monday is at DHN and ECP per the CAMs. Have indicated VCTS for all terminals except VLD on Monday afternoon and evening; VLD remains on the edge of all the activity attm. West to Southwest winds around 5-10 kts thru the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Mainly southwesterly winds should hold through Monday before teetering between westerly and southwesterly afterwards. Seas will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. However, long-period swells will continue through the period as a disturbance sits off northeast Mexico. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be possible over the waters with the highest chances east of Apalachicola. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The main fire weather concerns over the next few days will be the ongoing hot temperatures expected during the afternoon and evening hours across the region. Along with hot temperatures, mixing heights will surge to around 6000 feet for much of the area. This combined with transport winds around 10-15 mph will lead to high dispersions, especially along the I-75 corridor where headline values are expected. Overall, expect southwesterly transport winds on Monday with the potential for a broken line of scattered thunderstorms to develop along the Florida state line and push south throughout the afternoon and evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No major changes to the forecast as moisture will continue to infiltrate the region due to. A large trough will sit over the east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected over the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 98 77 97 77 / 30 10 50 10 Panama City 94 78 91 79 / 10 0 40 10 Dothan 99 76 96 75 / 10 0 40 10 Albany 100 77 96 75 / 10 0 30 20 Valdosta 100 76 98 76 / 20 10 40 20 Cross City 95 75 94 76 / 30 20 40 20 Apalachicola 92 78 90 79 / 10 10 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...LF MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR