Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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845 FXUS62 KTAE 260744 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 344 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Ridging finally starts to break down a bit today with some troughing over the eastern US. A shortwave will approach the western parts of our area late this afternoon into the evening with another shortwave early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and storms will once again develop this afternoon into the early evening. There may be a few more showers and storms today compared to the last few days with PWATs around 2 inches and a little extra forcing. There will be some mid-level dry air still present, though not as much as yesterday. However, DCAPE will still be in the 1000-1300 J/kg range, which is still enough for some strong downbursts. Late in the afternoon, there will be a slight uptick in deep layer shear over our AL and FL Panhandle counties, which could slightly boost intensity in these storms late in the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest in southeast Alabama and the Florida counties, but lower across southwest Georgia. This is where some drier air remains in place. We`ll have a lull in storms during the late evening, but as the next shortwave approaches, we`ll still have sufficient instability to see isolated showers and storms over the Central Time Zone counties. Temperatures are a little trickier. With NBM under-doing highs yesterday (even after nudging upward), have gone above guidance again today, particularly in areas that will mix out more efficiently. This is mainly over the AL/GA counties where highs may reach the triple digits again. The FL counties will be in the middle to upper 90s with heat index values up to 110. Thus, have issued another Heat Advisory today for most of our FL counties and Brooks, Lowndes, and Lanier Counties in GA. This is a bit uncertain as we`ll have to see when thunderstorms develop if they affect daytime heating. But, leaned forward on this given we`re now several days into this heat wave and nighttime temperatures haven`t cooled efficiently, which could be leading to compounding heat impacts, especially for vulnerable populations. Lows tonight will only fall into the middle to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Troughing is expected across the area Thursday into Friday, allowing for higher coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms across the area. High temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler as a result, ranging from the low to mid 90s both days. Heat indices will still range from near 103-109 degrees each afternoon thanks to ample moisture overhead, and heat advisories might be needed. Ridging will build back overhead for the weekend and into early next week, causing high temperatures to soar back into the mid to upper 90s or near 100 once again. Heat indices are forecast in the 107 to 115 degree range in the afternoons over the weekend, and heat advisories seem likely. While showers and storms will still be possible each day, overall coverage should be less due to the ridging overhead. On Monday, a weak front approaches the region from the north before stalling out. This feature may cause a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon and Monday night. Low temperatures will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 70s each night which will limit any real cooling off or respite from the afternoon heat. Each day the heat wave goes on, the more dangerous the cumulative effects of the heat become. Please take care of yourselves and take heat safety seriously. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. The exception may be brief MVFR vsbys at TLH for some patchy fog around 10-13z. Scattered TSRA will develop near most sites this afternoon, except ABY. Some gusty winds are possible with these storms. Storms will fade by 00z. Generally light SW winds are expected, maybe gusty in the afternoon at ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 West to southwest winds generally less than 15 knots are expected through the period. Seas will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be possible over the waters with the highest chances east of Apalachicola. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 West to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue over the next several days. This combined with very high mixing heights will lead to good to excellent dispersions each afternoon. Daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms will remain possible each day, bringing a threat of gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning. Min RH values will fall into the 30s across the Georgia and Alabama zones with 40s and 50s in the FL zones today, increasing Thursday and Friday. Dangerous heat continues as well with highs well into the 90s and heat index values of 105-110. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding concerns where slow moving storms could produce several inches of rainfall over small areas. However, a widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. Otherwise, there are currently no river flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 77 92 75 / 50 30 60 30 Panama City 91 79 89 78 / 40 30 50 40 Dothan 98 75 92 74 / 40 30 60 30 Albany 100 76 94 74 / 20 30 50 30 Valdosta 98 76 95 74 / 40 20 50 30 Cross City 94 77 92 76 / 50 10 50 30 Apalachicola 90 80 88 79 / 40 30 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115- 118-127. High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday morning for FLZ112. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ159>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Young MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...DVD