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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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191 FXUS62 KTAE 280147 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 947 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The main highlights to tonight`s forecast were tweaking rain chances based on current radar trends, and the 0Z HRRR. Only isolated activity is apparent at this time, but look for additional development the next few hrs. This evening`s balloon data depicts a very moist airmass characterized by Precipitable Water of 2.14". Meanwhile, a well-defined shortwave is evident on vapor imagery over the Lower MS Valley. This feature is attendant to a frontal boundary draped across the Northern Gulf Coast and will maintain elevated rain chances into tomorrow morning. Expect the greatest convective coverage roughly along/south of I-10 where instability is greatest, especially near the coast and offshore. Lastly, minimum temperatures were slightly adjusted based on this morning`s minT`s and the latest MOS guidance. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An upper shortwave trough and weak surface frontal feature will maintain cloud cover this evening as ample moisture and weak ascent remain situated over the region. This will keep temperatures in the mid 70s for our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 70s to perhaps low 80s in our FL counties if cloud cover is thicker than forecast. Generally scattered to broken cloud cover is expected to prevail tomorrow as the frontal feature continues to weaken over the area, though it should provide enough forcing to spark widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area tomorrow afternoon. Similar to today, the cloud cover should keep temperatures on the "cooler" side with our inland areas seeing highs in the low to mid 90s with our coastal regions possibly seeing highs in the upper 80s. However, ample surface moisture will yield heat indices in the 100s, possibly meeting heat advisory criteria particularly along our western FL Panhandle counties, eastern FL Big Bend counties, and southeasternmost SW GA counties. Fire: South southwest transport winds generally 10-15kts with gradually increasing mixing heights each day will yield good to elevated dispersions areawide with pockets of high dispersions possible. Widespread high dispersions appear possible on Saturday as mixing heights see a notable increase areawide. Chances for showers and thunderstorms exist each day beginning along the coast in the mornings before moving inland in the afternoon. Some storms tomorrow may be strong to possibly severe with gusty and erratic winds within && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Fairly wet pattern continues into the beginning of the weekend as a broad upper level trough weakens but a moist airmass remains in place. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to follow a largely diurnal trend with coverage transitioning from sea to land through the day with afternoon heating. The region will be on the western periphery of a surface high so light to moderate southerly flow should push showers and thunderstorms inland through the day as they move in and develop off of the water. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The beginning of the period remains wet as deep-layer moisture remains in place. The surface high across the western Atlantic weakens into next week as an upper level ridge begins to build across the south. With the local area being on the eastern side of the ridge, some reduction in storm chances are expected but with precipitable waters still remaining around 2 inches, and the daytime heating under the influence of the ridge adding plenty of instability, daily chances for showers and storms are still likely. With showers and thunderstorms taking longer to develop each afternoon, and rain chances slowly decreasing after Monday, expect a gradual warm up. By Tuesday or Wednesday, widespread highs could be back in the upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The main forecast challenge will be timing showers, rain, and thunderstorms against the backdrop of a moist, unstable air mass with southwesterly low-mid level flow. We are currently left with areas of stratiform rain and rain-cooled air. A broken line of thunderstorms is currently making headway across the western Panhandle, but it is likely to be weakening as it reaches ECP and DHN in the next few hours, thanks to the rain-cooled air. A lull in activity is expected this evening. In the hours before sunrise, look for a resurgence of convection over the warm nearshore Gulf waters, most likely affecting ECP well before sunrise. The convection should eventually spread to the other terminals during the valid period, but it is unclear for now what mix there will be of convective elements with and without lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting SW winds around 12 kts with 3-ft seas and a dominant period of 5-6 seconds. Overnight rain chances were adjusted for the latest radar and hi-res model trends. The latter shows redevelopment late tonight and spreading towards the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Lightning, gusty winds, and waterspouts would be the main concerns. From CWF Synopsis...Lingering frontal system will be in place across the southeast with moist southwesterly flow leading to scattered shower and thunderstorm redevelopment overnight into tomorrow morning. Elevated rain chances remain in place through the weekend until the front washes out. Winds and seas will remain around 10 to 15 knots through early Saturday before winds become lighter through the rest of the weekend and early next week. Seas will drop as well though lingering long period swells from disturbed weather across the southern Gulf will delay lower seas until next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 South southwest transport winds generally 10-15kts with gradually increasing mixing heights each day will yield good to elevated dispersions areawide with pockets of high dispersions possible. Widespread high dispersions appear possible on Saturday as mixing heights see a notable increase areawide. Chances for showers and thunderstorms exist each day beginning along the coast in the mornings before moving inland in the afternoon. Some storms tomorrow may be strong to possibly severe with gusty and erratic winds within and near these storms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Widespread rainfall amounts through next week will be around 1 to 2 inches but with a fairly moist airmass in place localized higher amounts are possible through the next few days, especially in any slow moving or training thunderstorms. Widespread flooding risks are low but will likely be confined to nuisance flooding and/or where slow moving storms affect poor drainage areas or urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 78 90 75 93 / 40 80 10 70 Panama City 78 88 79 90 / 60 70 30 50 Dothan 73 90 74 92 / 40 70 20 60 Albany 75 92 74 94 / 30 70 20 50 Valdosta 76 93 74 96 / 20 70 20 60 Cross City 76 92 75 94 / 40 70 20 70 Apalachicola 79 87 80 90 / 60 70 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Dobbs/IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...Dobbs