Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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606 FXUS62 KTBW 161839 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 239 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Weather pattern will look very similiar each day this week. PTC 8 which is expected to push into the Carolinas and slowly push north will help to keep west to southwest winds to Florida. The biggest story for us will be the lack of shower activity across the area. This is due to lower PWs that will be over the state. Our average PW this time of year is around 1.8 while it looks like we will be measure more around 1.5 to 1.7 each day. It might not seem that big of a difference but that slightly lower PW will keep chances of rain mainly between 20 to 40 percent each day. An upper level trough looks to push through sometime on Friday which will shift our upper level flow to the northeast. However, those lower PWs will still be around keep shower chances between 20 to 40 percent for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Clouds have broken up and we finally see VFR conditions at all airport in the CWA. This trend looks to continue over the next 24 hours with light winds generally staying below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The forecast will remain mostly the same each day this week. We will continue to see weak westerly flow each day with winds around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances will remain on the lower end each day hovering around 20 to 40 percent. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 90 76 90 / 10 20 10 30 FMY 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 20 60 GIF 75 91 75 93 / 20 50 10 50 SRQ 76 90 76 91 / 20 20 10 30 BKV 71 90 71 91 / 10 30 0 30 SPG 79 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close