Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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478 FXUS63 KTOP 261949 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Up and down pattern continues for the next week, with alternating 1-2 day stretches of hotter/cooler temperatures. - Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms with this active pattern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Last night`s cold front has pushed south into Oklahoma, leaving behind a cooler and somewhat drier air mass in place for today. We`ll continue to see some slight dry air advection through tonight, as the East Coast upper trough deepens. By tomorrow, southeasterly winds will return as surface high pressure shifts farther east. Isentropic ascent north of the old frontal boundary will result in showers and weak thunderstorms developing across central Kansas towards sunrise. These will gradually shift east throughout the day. The clouds and showers will keep high temperatures in the 80s, potentially even the 70s in western areas if showers can move in by late morning and linger through the afternoon. Late Thursday night as the next upper trough shifts across the Rockies and onto the Plains, a better signal exists for thunderstorms to develop across western Kansas and move east into the area. Instability across north-central KS is just high enough with this round (~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) that a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Potential decreases farther east as instability tapers off. Once the morning convection tapers off, another hot and humid day is on tap for Friday. Heat indices are likely (70%) to reach the 100-107 degree range, though the amount of lingering cloud cover does lead to some uncertainty. By evening, the next cold front will begin to move into northern Kansas. There is still some uncertainty as to exact position of the front and associated surface low, which results in questions with storm coverage and timing. Regardless, convergence along the front will result in thunderstorm potential increasing during the evening hours. Stronger mid-level flow and more southeasterly winds will result in better effective wind shear than our last few thunderstorm events, so some severe thunderstorms will certainly be possible given plenty of moisture and instability. The exact potential and ceiling will be dependent on the aforementioned surface pattern as well as mesoscale factors that won`t be resolved until Friday. Beyond Friday, we`ll see another couple days of cooler weather for Saturday and Sunday behind the cold front. Expecting highs in the 80s, with perhaps even some local 70s on Sunday as strong high pressure moves in from the north. Low PoPs linger south of I-70, though the better chances stay even farther south towards the stalling boundary across Oklahoma. By early next week, another trend towards hot and humid conditions is expected as ridging strengthens over the Southern Plains and southerly near-surface flow develops. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Northerly winds around 10 kts will continue through early evening, before weakening and becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning. Few to scattered VFR cumulus lingers for another few hours this afternoon before clearing. VFR conditions continue overnight, though some showers and weak thunderstorms may approach KMHK towards the very end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese