152
FXUS64 KTSA 170527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Latest water vapor imagery shows the forecast area sandwiched in-
between mid/upper-level ridging along the eastern CONUS and a
deepening trough over the Pacific NW/Great Basin regions. A few
diurnally-driven showers tried developing across portions of
northwest AR earlier this afternoon/evening. However, despite the
very warm temperatures, with very weak forcing in the low/mid-
levels, they were unable to sustain themselves more than just a
few minutes. With the sun setting, the existing low precipitation
chances will diminish completely over the next hour or sooner and
the remainder of the evening will remain rain-free.

Overall, the forecast for the remainder of the night remains on
track, with very little changes made from the afternoon forecast
package. Another abnormally warm night is expected with low
temperatures bottoming out in the low-mid 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Several of the CAMS suggest a broken line of showers/thunderstorms
will begin to propagate northward from the Gulf during the day
Monday. There is a slight chance (20 percent) some of this
activity could move into far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon
or early evening, but more likely will begin to dissipate.
Regardless, increasing low level moisture, coupled with strong
afternoon heating, may allow for a few isolated storms to develop
across far SE OK/NW AR. Overall coverage again will likely remain
limited. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
with heat indices approaching triple digits in some locations.

Slightly cooler conditions are expected during the Tuesday-Thursday
time frame as winds become more easterly. Increasing high clouds
are also expected from tropical system, which is forecast to move
westward across south Texas. Rain chances will remain low, and
again be confined to far southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday.

Warming trend returns late week into the early part of next weekend
as upper ridge builds back over the southern Plains. A weak frontal
boundary may approach from the north on Sunday and therefore kept
slight chance NBM PoPs for NE OK/NW AR.

Parts of northeast Oklahoma have received little rainfall over the
past two weeks and with no significant rain forecast through the
extended period and potentially beyond, abnormally dry conditions
may become a concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Clear or mostly clear conditions will prevail through the
overnight hours with light southerly winds mostly in the 5-10 kt
range. During the day Monday a few low level cumulus clouds may
develop once again near 5 kft with some high cloudiness as well
late in the day. Winds will be breezy Monday, gusting to 20-25 kts
out of the south for most terminals. An isolated pop up shower may
occur for the northwest AR terminals (10-15% chance), but the main
impacts would be from gusty and erratic outflow winds. Confidence
is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  75  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   92  75  90  73 /  20   0  20   0
MLC   90  73  89  71 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   93  73  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   89  70  87  68 /  20   0  20   0
BYV   90  71  88  68 /  20   0  20   0
MKO   90  74  89  71 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   91  73  89  70 /  10   0   0   0
F10   90  73  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   88  71  87  70 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06