Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
860 FXUS65 KTWC 252047 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 147 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area. && .DISCUSSION... Skies have seen more clearing this afternoon across southeastern Arizona in the wake of an exiting mesoscale convective vortex. While some associated subsidence and delayed insolation should cause convection to be more isolated today, ample precipitable water and surface dew points exceeding 60 degrees will allow for a few stronger thunderstorms. Though deep moisture through the atmospheric column should diminish the strong outflow threat across much of the area, drier mid-level air in eastern areas of the state will allow for higher DCAPE values with a marginally higher strong wind gust potential. Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall rates with a slight chance of a strong wind gust potential under wet microbursts will be the main threats (along with lightning) with any isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Additional convection later this evening can`t be ruled out as outflows out of Sonora and northwest Chihuahua move across the International Border late. Going forward, the upper level high will shift west over the next few days and become more centered over southeastern Arizona. This should bring temperatures back up a few degrees but below excessive levels. Mid-level subsidence and the shift in the moisture trajectory should bring overall thunderstorm chances down a bit each day, but with adequate surface heating and moderate atmospheric moisture isolated to scattered convection will be possible. Ensemble probabilities back off on widespread precipitation potential through the work week, then reintroduce stronger probabilities by early next week as the upper high shifts back east. && .AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z. Isolated-scattered -TSRA across KOLS-KDUG, with very isolated activity possible further north through KTUS this afternoon and evening. Additional activity possible at KOLS-KDUG through 26/08Z as thunderstorms move in from the south. Brief MVFR conditions possible with thunderstorms. Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from storms. KSAD area may see a few winds gust up to 25 kts tomorrow afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms. Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible. Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson