Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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879 FXUS65 KABQ 201750 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Modified moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been seeping into New Mexico, and as it spreads farther west it will act as a moderator to the temperatures with daytime highs running a few degrees cooler than yesterday and several degrees below normal. In addition, more shower and thunderstorm activity will spread farther west, and a few strong to severe storms will be possible in northwestern parts of New Mexico where large hail and damaging winds may accompany. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Storms will not be quite as numerous this weekend with the best chances for rain expected over west central areas of New Mexico and temperatures warming back to normal. Fewer storms and warmer temperatures can be expected into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A deepening upper level trough on the west coast, a broad upper high over the east central US, and a tropical system passing westward over northern Mexico have all worked in consort to bring deep Gulf moisture over the forecast area. Today, precipitable water values from 125-175% of normal are expected, except over 200% of normal from Gallup to Farmington. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight. Along and west of the central mountain chain, bulk shear values from 20-35 knots will be conducive for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening, especially from around Gallup north and northeastward to the Four Corners and Farmington area, where instability will be greater and a shortwave trough is forecast to cross in southwest flow aloft this afternoon. Will issue another Flash Flood Watch for the south central mountains this afternoon and tonight, where thunderstorms will again be capable of producing a quick quarter inch of rain. This is enough to produce flash flooding on new burn scars, and the antecedent moisture is definitely in place after 1 to over 3 inches of rain fell in the Ruidoso area on Wednesday. Late this afternoon and evening, the gap wind is again forecast to become fairly strong in the Albuquerque area, where gusts around 50 mph are again expected. On Friday, a stronger shortwave trough will eject northeastward from the west coast across the central Rockies, drawing even better moisture northward over NM in the process. PWATs are forecast to climb from 150 to over 200% of normal with the highest values along and west of the central mountain chain. The greatest instability and shear will be found along the continental divide and over north central areas, where some strong to severe storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall. With the unseasonably rich moisture in place and all the convection, high temperatures today and Friday will vary from near normal along the western border to as much as 16 degrees below normal further east. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The upper high will stretch and elongate more over the southern states Friday night into Saturday. This will lead to a reduction in wind speeds aloft while also limiting synoptic perturbations into NM, but it will also redistribute the moisture as well, generally pushing the deeper PWATs westward. This looks to concentrate higher moisture over west central to southwestern zones of NM while some drying occurs in northern zones. Also, a more garden variety of airmass thunderstorms would be expected Saturday afternoon with more separation between cells that could keep temperatures warming closer to late June averages. The monsoon high will then contract and center itself more directly over NM into Sunday and Monday. Blended guidance seems to keep the southwestern mountains favored each day, but essentially isolated to scattered storms are expected to initiate from there and over the central mountain chain. While the footprints of rain will be reducing daily, much more sluggish storm motion would be expected with a threat for locally heavy downpours. This trend continues into the middle of next week with the high pacing on top of NM, temperatures rising slightly above average and moisture getting recycled daily for isolated to scattered storms, generally over the climatologically favored initiation points. A surface wind shift could bring some additional moisture to the northeastern zones Tuesday and Wednesday before the monsoon high weakens and becomes less defined over NM on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Abundant moisture over the region and isolated SHRA this morning will give way to increasing coverage of SHRA/TS this afternoon. Near full sunshine across northwest NM with unstable conditions will allow activity along and west of the Cont Divide to erupt by 1pm then move slowly northeast around KGUP and KFMN. This activity may last for the entire night but with the greatest impact period between 4pm and 8pm with locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hail. Slower convective initiation is expected for areas along and east of the central mt chain with more periods of rain, showers, and low stratus through tonight. A slug of moderate stratiform to locally heavy rainfall is still expected to move north along the central mt chain from near KSRR to KCQC and KLVS overnight thru Friday morning. This activity will have periods of IFR stratus and patchy fog. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Deep Gulf moisture will remain over the forecast area with widespread wetting precipitation and a threat of locally heavy rainfall again today and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will continue today over western and northern areas, while the strong gap wind continues in the central valley and strengthens for a time this evening. Peak gusts should reach around 50 mph in Albuquerque below Tijeras Canyon this evening. After widespread below normal temperatures today and Friday, a mid level high pressure system over the eastern US will migrate westward over NM this weekend through the first half of next week warming temperatures above normal. A monsoon-like weather pattern will then continue with daily rounds of scattered thunderstorms favoring central and western areas. Rain amounts are forecast to decrease significantly starting Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 91 61 87 62 / 70 70 80 80 Dulce........................... 83 48 79 50 / 60 70 80 80 Cuba............................ 81 55 79 54 / 20 60 80 60 Gallup.......................... 90 52 88 54 / 60 80 60 70 El Morro........................ 84 57 82 54 / 30 50 70 70 Grants.......................... 87 54 84 55 / 20 50 80 70 Quemado......................... 86 59 84 56 / 20 20 70 60 Magdalena....................... 82 60 79 61 / 20 60 80 40 Datil........................... 80 58 78 57 / 20 50 80 50 Reserve......................... 91 55 86 53 / 10 20 60 50 Glenwood........................ 94 67 89 66 / 10 20 60 40 Chama........................... 78 46 74 48 / 70 60 80 70 Los Alamos...................... 78 59 75 59 / 40 70 90 60 Pecos........................... 74 56 73 56 / 50 70 90 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 47 75 51 / 50 60 80 50 Red River....................... 70 44 67 45 / 60 70 80 50 Angel Fire...................... 70 43 71 47 / 50 40 80 50 Taos............................ 80 53 77 53 / 30 60 70 50 Mora............................ 73 50 72 51 / 50 60 90 50 Espanola........................ 86 61 83 59 / 20 50 90 50 Santa Fe........................ 78 59 77 60 / 20 70 90 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 60 81 58 / 20 70 90 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 64 83 66 / 40 60 70 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 64 84 67 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 64 86 60 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 66 84 65 / 20 50 50 50 Belen........................... 91 63 88 63 / 20 40 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 89 64 85 64 / 20 50 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 91 61 87 59 / 30 40 50 40 Corrales........................ 90 65 85 63 / 20 50 50 50 Los Lunas....................... 91 63 87 61 / 20 40 50 40 Placitas........................ 85 63 83 65 / 30 60 60 50 Rio Rancho...................... 89 65 84 65 / 20 50 50 50 Socorro......................... 92 67 88 67 / 20 50 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 58 77 60 / 30 60 80 40 Tijeras......................... 83 60 79 63 / 40 60 70 40 Edgewood........................ 81 58 78 60 / 30 50 90 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 56 79 58 / 20 50 90 40 Clines Corners.................. 74 55 74 55 / 30 60 90 40 Mountainair..................... 82 57 79 60 / 40 40 80 40 Gran Quivira.................... 82 57 79 58 / 40 50 80 30 Carrizozo....................... 83 63 81 63 / 40 60 70 30 Ruidoso......................... 72 58 73 53 / 60 80 90 30 Capulin......................... 75 55 77 55 / 30 30 50 10 Raton........................... 78 56 80 57 / 30 30 50 20 Springer........................ 80 57 81 59 / 50 40 70 20 Las Vegas....................... 72 56 72 56 / 60 70 90 40 Clayton......................... 81 61 82 64 / 20 20 30 5 Roy............................. 77 59 77 61 / 50 60 70 20 Conchas......................... 83 63 84 66 / 40 50 60 20 Santa Rosa...................... 77 61 80 63 / 50 60 70 20 Tucumcari....................... 83 63 84 66 / 30 40 40 10 Clovis.......................... 79 64 84 64 / 60 40 30 10 Portales........................ 79 65 85 64 / 50 50 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 80 64 83 65 / 40 50 40 20 Roswell......................... 83 69 87 69 / 70 70 40 10 Picacho......................... 75 61 80 60 / 80 80 80 20 Elk............................. 73 58 77 56 / 80 80 80 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>206-211. Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219. Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-229. Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...42