540
FXUS61 KALY 300804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
404 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, some of which could be strong to severe, mainly south and
east of Albany. Monday will be cooler and less humid with
isolated showers possible. Fair and warmer conditions return for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 4 AM EDT, cluster of showers/thunderstorms across SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley with some embedded stronger
cells with gusty winds. This cluster should continue tracking
east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis
suggests MU CAPES (mainly elevated) of ~1000-1500 J/kg for areas
west of the Hudson River. Showers/storms should move across the
remainder of the Mohawk Valley, Lake George/Saratoga region
over the next 1-2 hours, and northern portions of the Capital
Region.

Eventually, these showers/storms should weaken around/shortly
after sunrise. However, lingering outflow may become initiation
for additional convection later this morning across the Capital
Region. Schoharie County and southern VT, which should then
track east/southeast and strengthen upon reaching areas south of
I-90, where MU CAPES may reach 2000+ J/kg within an area of 0-6
km shear ot 40-45 KT. SPC has placed areas south/east of Albany,
from southern VT/Berkshires southwest into the central/southern
Taconics, SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT within a
Slight Risk for severe T-storms due to these overlapping severe
parameters. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be the main
severe threat from these storms, although there remains a very
low risk area for tornadoes across western New England extending
into eastern portions of the mid Hudson Valley, where low LCL`s
and greater low level shear will exist.

Main cold front will then track southeast this afternoon, and
could trigger additional isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms, however there remains uncertainty how
much recovery there might be from any earlier storms.

Any thunderstorms could contain torrential downpours today given
PWAT`s 1.50-1.75" and some possibility for
training/backbuilding of cells.

High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s in many valley
areas today, and possibly the upper 80s across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley, where heat indices could briefly reach the
mid 90s before cooling from thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers/thunderstorms should taper off this
evening across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Additional
isolated/scattered showers may develop later tonight as upper
level trough approaches. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy and
turning less humid with low temps mainly in the 50s.

Upper level trough will traverse the region Monday, and may
produce isolated showers, especially for areas east of the
Hudson River. There could be enough instability for some thunder
within the tallest convective elements. Otherwise, it will
become breezy and less humid, with max temps mainly in the 70s
in valley areas and 65-70 across higher terrain areas.

Mainly clear and quite cool Monday night, with low temps in the
upper 40s to lower/mid 50s for most areas. Some portions of the
southern Adirondacks could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Mostly sunny and warmer for Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies
and milder temps Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday rebounding into
the lower/mid 80s for lower elevations and mid/upper 70s across
higher terrain. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered off the New England coast as
southerly return flow resumes across the region. A warm front will
lift northward across the area. The best forcing will remain to our
north and west so another dry day is expected. Highs will rise into
the lower to mid-80s across the valleys and mid to upper 70s across
the higher elevations with continued comfortable humidity levels.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking well
northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front during this time. Instability looks
rather weak so the severe weather threat looks low at this time.
Precipitable water values may increase to over 1.50 inches, so some
heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor trends over the coming
days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very warm and humid day for July
Fourth with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across many valley
areas with some lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s to
lower 80s in the higher elevations).

The front looks to lift back northward as a warm front Friday into
next weekend as another upper trough approaches from the west. This
will keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms around each day for
the rest of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z/Mon...IFR/MVFR cigs will linger into the start of
the TAF period at all sites before trending back to VFR levels
toward daybreak or later Sunday morning. Rain showers should
approach the TAF sites between 08-12z/Sun from the west. Have
included VCSH at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. There is some uncertainty on
how heavy these showers will be and if vsbys will be reduced.
Will monitor and amend if necessary.

Additional rain showers are possible Sunday afternoon,
especially from KALB and points south and east. Best
thunderstorm chances are at KPOU/KPSF and maintained PROB30
groups there. Trended KGFL/KALB to VCSH with more isolated
coverage at these sites. Cigs should remain VFR Sunday
afternoon, but cigs/vsbys may lower in any shower or
thunderstorm.

Mixed VFR/MVFR cigs are possible in the wake of the frontal
passage Sunday evening with MVFR most favored at KPSF at this
time.

Wind will remain south to southwesterly at around 10 kt
overnight into Sunday morning with a few higher gusts. Wind
will become west to northwesterly behind the cold front passage
Sunday afternoon and early evening at 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20
to 25 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Abundant moisture (PWAT`s 1.5-2 inches, especially areas
south/east of Albany) and relatively warm cloud depths will
promote efficient rainfall rates in showers and thunderstorms
today. Rainfall rates could reach or exceed one inch/hour within
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Albany this
afternoon.

Localized flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
will be possible where thunderstorms occur. Isolated flash
flooding is also possible where multiple heavy downpours occur.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL