351
FXUS64 KAMA 172348
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move
east/northeast this evening. The line is currently across the
western Texas Panhandle and has been producing lightning and very
strong wind gusts upwards of 60 to 75 mph. With the widespread
nature of the storms, have updated and increased PoPs across the
west and north central through the rest of the evening.
Thunderstorm activity should begin to decrease towards 10 PM this
evening with the severe storm threat slowly decreasing as well
during this time.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

- Severe thunderstorms possible in the west. Damaging winds and
  perhaps quarter size hail.  Heavy rain.

- Isolated severe storms possible in the southeast Wednesday
  afternoon.

- More thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thunderstorms have developed across the mountains of New Mexico
early this afternoon.  These storms should continue to increase in
coverage as the lift from the base of the upper level positively
tilted trough moves northeast across eastern New Mexico atop a low
level moist airmass.  A line of thunderstorms is expected to
approach the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by late this
afternoon.  Some of these thunderstorms may be severe as they cross
over into the western Panhandles with damaging winds the main
threat.  Some hailstones to the size of quarters will also be
possible.  As the storms move toward the central Panhandles they are
expected to weaken as the upper level lift from the trough will be
moving northeast into Kansas and instability will be weakening.
However, storms could linger all the way across the eastern
Panhandles late tonight.  Gusty southerly winds this afternoon are
expected to decrease some this evening. However, a low level jet may
keep some areas gusting through much of the night even outside of
thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to lie across the
southeast Texas Panhandle.  This trough may become a focus for
additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon into the
evening.  Again, a storm or two may become severe with damaging
winds the main thereat given the adequate shear and instability.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thursday remains dry at this time as a ridge pokes up over Texas
ahead of the next upper level low moving into California.  Showers
and thunderstorms should return to the Panhandles Friday and
Saturday ahead and along with the passage of this upper low as it
moves through the 4-corners region and out into northwest Kansas by
Saturday night.  A cold front should push through the Panhandles
Saturday night behind this system effectively shutting off the rain
for Sunday and Monday.

Highs through Friday are expected to remain above average.  Highs
may remain around average on Saturday depending on how cloudy and
rainy it ends up being.  Sunday and Monday should then be below
average behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thunderstorms are possible at KDHT and KGUY at the beginning of
this TAF cycle. Cannot rule out the storms getting to KAMA, but
confidence is not high enough to mention at this time. Brief
visibility reductions along with heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible with any storms. After the storms move through, VFR
conditions are forecast through the rest of the TAF cycle. Winds
will remain out of the south with gusts up to 20 to 30 kts after
sunrise tomorrow.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  93  67  95 /  30  20   0   0
Beaver OK                  64  95  66  95 /  60  10  10   0
Boise City OK              57  88  55  89 /  70   0   0   0
Borger TX                  66  98  68 100 /  40  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  93  63  95 /  60  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  63  92  65  94 /  30  20   0   0
Clarendon TX               65  95  68  97 /  20  20  20   0
Dalhart TX                 57  88  56  90 /  80   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  92  58  93 /  70   0   0   0
Hereford TX                63  93  63  96 /  50  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                66  95  69  98 /  40  20  20   0
Pampa TX                   65  93  68  96 /  40  20  10   0
Shamrock TX                67  95  68  98 /  20  20  20   0
Wellington TX              68  98  70 100 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...05