Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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158 FXUS61 KBGM 272228 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 628 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A quiet end to the work week is expected with seasonal temperatures. The next system moves in this weekend with periods of rain and thunderstorms, mainly Saturday and Saturday night. Showers linger into Sunday with dry conditions returning early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With the evening updates, continued the mention for patchy fog overnight. However, confidence remains low with some dry advection this evening with dewpoints falling into the 40`s. 235 PM Update... High pressure will remain in control through at least Friday. For tonight, winds become light and skies eventually clear out. This will allow for good radiational cooling, which could lead to patchy fog or low stratus. Forecast soundings show a shallow inversion at the surface but are then dry just above the surface and throughout the rest of the profile. So confidence is low that fog will develop, but maybe lingering moisture from rainfall yesterday will contribute some. Otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 40s and low 50s. This forecast did go slightly below guidance due to the clearing skies, though high clouds will move in late tonight. Friday will be pleasant with sunny skies and temps climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight, temps fall into the 50s and 60s. High pressure will drift eastward, and weak shortwaves will pass through the region ahead of the next system. Passing showers will be possible after midnight. Coverage remains uncertain as guidance differs on how quickly showers spread east across the region. Due to this, this update favored a blend of HREF and NBM guidance as well as some manual edits for PoPs during the overnight period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 215 PM Update... There are no significant changes with the 12Z model guidance for this period. SPC and WPC both have the region in a marginal risks for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. The more likely potential hazard will be localized flash flooding. As far as severe thunderstorms...there is a strong low level jet the pushes in Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings are showing very little if any instability during the day Saturday. At this time, the thinking is for possibly some embedded thunder among heavy rain showers, but severe threat looks quite low. 315 AM Update... Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year with values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 220 PM Update... Cold front will exit the region Sunday morning, but with upper trough pushing overhead, some diurnal showers (possibly lake enhanced) will be possible during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging in the low to upper 50s. Surface high pressure moves in overhead on Monday, bringing dry and warm conditions through the first half of the week. The pattern becomes zonal mid week with several perturbations pushing through the flow that will bring our next rain chances Wednesday and through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through this entire TAF period. West- northwest winds will remain through the afternoon hours with speeds around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts. These winds will diminish into the late evening hours below 10 kts before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will remain calm through at least early Friday afternoon. Fog may be possible at most terminals, exception being AVP and SYR, in the early morning hours on Friday. However, confidence is low because model guidance is suggesting very little fog, but forecast soundings show a possibility for fog or low stratus. For now, this was handled by tempo groups. Outlook... Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY terminals. Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG SHORT TERM...ES/MPK LONG TERM...ES/MPK AVIATION...BTL