926
FXUS64 KBMX 290729
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

High pressure builds in across the region today leading to mostly
clear skies for much of the day. A weak upper level shortwave will
push southeastward through the Mid-MS Valley late in the
afternoon/evening hours, which should lead to increasing clouds
tonight and a few isolated to scattered showers/storms in the far
western counties after midnight tonight. This trend continues into
Thursday as the shortwave continues to push through the Southeast.
Overall, thinking the antecedent relatively dry air mass and low
level ridging should temper the coverage of any thunderstorm
activity, but there`s enough signal to include at least 30% chance
for thunderstorms across the western portions of Central AL and 20-
30% elsewhere across much of the area.

25/Owen

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

We will remain in a largely mesoscale driven weather regime through
the long term portion of the forecast. Most POPs through the period
will be in the chance to slight chance category, as convective
systems to our west lose steam as they reach central Alabama. If we
were to pick out a period with somewhat enhanced rain chances, it
would be Saturday afternoon to Sunday. Otherwise, low confidence in
timing and placement of upper impulses leads to generally climo
level POPs. No extremes are anticipated in temperatures.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

VFR conditions expected across the area tonight through Wednesday.
High pressure builds into the region with drier air in place.
Winds will be variable and light through roughly 16-18z before
increasing out of the northwest to 5-8kts. Winds will then become
light to calm around 00z Thursday.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions expected today with min RHs dropping near 30% for a
good portion of the area. Northwesterly winds should generally be
less than 7-10mph, but if we start to see increased mixing during
the day there could be a few wind gusts and RHs may drop lower.
Moisture begins to increase Thursday through Friday with min RHs
remaining near or above 50%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  20
Anniston    86  60  81  59 /   0  10Isolated thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday and Thursday,
but expect most of the area to be dry. Recovery RH values tonight
will be in the 80 to 90 percent range, with light 20ft winds. Minimum
RH values tomorrow afternoon will be in the 30-45 percent range
with 20ft winds from the northwest at 4-6mph. Moisture gradually
increases Thursday and Friday, with minimum RHs above 40 percent
and 20ft winds becoming southeasterly. 20 20 Birmingham 87 64 80
63 / 10 10 20 20 Tuscaloosa 89 65 81 63 / 10 30 30 30 Calera 88 64
81 63 / 10 20 20 20 Auburn 86 64 81 63 / 0 10 10 20 Montgomery 89
66 83 66 / 10 10 10 20 Troy 89 66 85 64 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25/Owen
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...25/Owen