020
FXUS65 KBOI 252012
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
212 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...As an upper level
low departs the area to the east, relatively dry NW flow aloft
will move over the region tonight. The flow will slowly become
west Sunday night, then southwest Monday, as a strong and large
upper level low strengthens off the coast. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms will continue in eastern Valley County this
evening, after which we should be dry through Monday night.
Temps will warm up to just a few degrees below normal Sunday and
then 5-10 degrees above normal Monday. Winds will be breezy out
of the NW this evening (gusts 20-30 mph common in most areas,
with gusts 30-40 mph in the western Magic Valley), then settle
down into typical diurnal winds through Monday night.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...The upper level low off
the coast will begin to move inland Tuesday, with the trough
axis moving onshore late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening.
SW flow ahead of the trough will advect warm air into the region
Tuesday, and highs are forecast to be around 10 degrees above
normal (mid to upper 80s for lower elevations). Models are in
excellent agreement with the forecast through Thursday, so it is
with higher-than-normal confidence that we can forecast the
trough to move through our area Wed night. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to precede the trough beginning
Tuesday aft/eve in most areas (50-80% chance in the mountains,
20-30% in lower elevations). A cold front will move through
Tuesday night, bringing gusty NW winds. Additional showers and
storms are forecast Wed aft/eve as the trough moves overhead.
There`s a 20-30% chance of showers across the higher terrain in
the northern part of the CWA Thursday as cold air aloft should
promote weak convection. Friday and Saturday are expected to be
dry due to an upper level ridge approaching from the west.
Models disagree on the amplitude of this ridge, so we are
confident that temps will warm back up some, but confidence is
low on exactly how much warming we will see going into next
weekend. At this time, we expect to be back up to near or a
little above normal by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR through Sunday for most areas. Mountain obscuration
due to widespread MVFR ceilings through this evening, with areas
lingering north and east of KMYL through Sunday morning. Scattered
mtn showers and isolated valley showers through Sun/02Z. Snow levels
6500-7500 feet. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt
through 03Z this evening, relaxing to less than 12kt for most sites
overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR through Sunday. NW winds gusty at times through this
evening.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....DG