Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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679 FXUS61 KCAR 250754 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 354 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today, followed by a warm front lifting north through the area tonight. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure should return Friday into Saturday. A cold front may approach later Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure continues to build into the area this morning, clearing skies from northwest to southeast. Scattered rain showers continue across the Downeast region early this morning, but will gradually shift eastward and exit the region as the parent low pressure continues to drift away into the Canadian Maritimes. Areas of dense fog have developed this morning across the north, particularly in river valleys where winds are the most calm. As the sun rises this morning, fog will be quick to dissipate, followed by sunny and warm weather through the day today as highs approach the low to mid 80s through most of the forecast area today. For tonight, a warm front will lift northwards through the area, shifting winds southwards and increasing cloud cover over the area. This will keep low temperatures warm through the CWA, with lows only falling into the lower 60s. Rain showers may begin to move into the area from the west late tonight ahead of the next system. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday... Cold front and subtle upper level shortwave trough approach Northern Maine from the west. This will bring some showers (35-65 percent chance north of Millinocket) and perhaps a storm to Northern Maine during the day Wednesday. Not concerned about any strong storms. Likely dry Downeast. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s. With dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, it`ll be a bit muggy. Breezy from the W/SW. Wednesday Night and Thursday... Cold front moves through the area from north to south late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, then stalls/falls apart Downeast late evening. Meanwhile, a potent upper trough with good jet support approaches from the west, and we will likely see a surface low pressure develop and ride NE along the front through our area late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Expect a shot of moderate to heavy rain along and especially just north of wherever this low tracks, along with a few embedded storms. There is some uncertainty still on the track of the heaviest rain, but most likely location is somewhere over central or south-central portions of Eastern Maine. This looks like roughly a 6 hour shot of heavier rain late Wednesday night to early Thursday day, which could exceed an inch in the heaviest areas. Not expecting any more than localized minor nuisance flooding. Drying out from west to east by late Thursday morning, with a chance of showers and perhaps an isolated storm in the afternoon. Temperatures a bit below average with highs in the vicinity of 70 Thursday. Thursday Night... Generally dry Thursday night, though can`t rule out a few lingering showers in the evening. Upper trough passes through in the evening with increasing subsidence later in the night along with high pressure beginning to build in from the west. Fairly cool with lows in the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid 50s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Active weather pattern with progressive westerly flow continues into the extended period. High pressure builds in for Friday, with abundant sunshine, highs in the low to mid 70s, and low humidity. However, the high pressure quickly moves east Friday night and Saturday as the next potent upper level trough with good upper jet support approaches from the west. Some timing uncertainty with the upper trough and associated cold front. Most models/ensembles hold off the best rain chances until Saturday night or Sunday. If the cold front moves through late Sunday, Sunday could be a prolific thunderstorm day, but if the cold front moves through early Sunday, the storm threat would be minimized since it wouldn`t correspond to maximum daytime heating. Too early to tell. Fairly warm, muggy airmass ahead of the weekend cold front, but nothing out of the ordinary. Tentatively looking for the upper trough to kick off to the east Monday, but some models pinch off and upper level low over our area which would keep the weather unsettled for longer if this were to occur. Likely cooling down for Monday. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Northern terminals to remain largely VFR through the day today into the night tonight. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR vis at Aroostook terminals, specifically KCAR and KPQI, likely pending areas of river fog development, but will quickly clear by around 12z. Calm winds overnight to increase to around 5 kts out of the W today, then S around 5 kts tonight. Downeast terminals will gradually improve to VFR as MVFR deck continues to shift eastward along with scattered rain showers. Fog not as likely at these terminals with light N winds persisting through the early morning hours. N winds continue today around 5 to 10 kts, becoming S tonight. LLWS possible at BGR and BHB late tonight. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a small chance of MVFR ceilings at times over Northern Maine. S/SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR developing in the evening, with IFR/LIFR likely after midnight. Rain developing, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Variable wind 5 kts. Thursday...IFR/LIFR early in rain, becoming mostly VFR by midday. NW wind 5-10 kts. Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. W/NW wind 5-10 kts, becoming light Friday night. Saturday...VFR, with a chance of MVFR late. S wind 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas on the coastal waters will likely remain around 5 to 6 ft early this morning, gradually falling to 4 to 5 ft by later this afternoon. As such, the small craft advisory continues until 2 PM this afternoon. Wind gusts will mostly remain below 20 kts, though a couple gusts between 20 and 25 kts are possible on the coastal waters. Intracoastal waters should remain below 4 ft with gusts below 20 kts this afternoon. All marine zones should sit below SCA criteria through the night tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions likely Wednesday through Thursday, most likely due to seas around 5 ft, but also possibly due to a south wind. Another decent shot at small craft winds and seas Saturday night and Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...AStrauser/Foisy Marine...AStrauser/Foisy