Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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391 FXUS64 KCRP 252259 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 559 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening for the Southern Coastal Bend - Potential for some tropical funnels again tomorrow morning Due to the higher afternoon temperatures and abundance of moisture in the region aiding upper 70s dew points, areas along the Southern Coastal Bend are seeing heat indices around 110-114F. This prompted the issuance of a Heat Advisory through this evening due to the risk of heat stress related conditions. There will be a similar potential to reach criteria tomorrow though there is uncertainty the duration so the decision will be to hold off for now. This will be monitored closely tomorrow for the a potential issuance. With the presence of tropical moisture and passing shortwaves through the area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow similar to today`s evolution. With winds being relatively light again tomorrow morning and reminiscent of this morning, tropical funnels will be possible again tomorrow. A few developed here at the office through the course of the this morning into the afternoon before the winds picked up. Any tropical funnels that do develop should be very brief and should typically not reach the ground though this remains a responsibility. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts with heat indices 105-110 - Daily rain chances, greatest Friday and Sunday (30-40%) A broad west-east oriented ridge over the southern CONUS will be accompanied by an inverted shortwave along the Texas Coast Thursday then move inland westward over South Texas on Friday. This will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances from 20% Thursday (PWATs 2") to 20-40% on Friday (PWATs 2.2"). The ridge will amplify and become more circular over the southern Great Plains early next week. Moisture will remain well above normal with a series of inverted shortwaves allowing for daily low rain chances (20-30%) Saturday through Monday. One of these shortwaves is associated with a current disturbances being monitored by the NHC. The NHC has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation as this tropical wave moves from the western Caribbean to the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Heat index values will generally range from 105-110 across South Texas each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight, with periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility expected in the early morning hours for COT, VCT, and ALI. VFR conditions will return in the mid- morning hours. Generally light southeast winds will persist. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Still expect low chances (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms offshore accompanied by generally weak onshore flow through tomorrow. Weak to moderate flow will develop tonight then persist through late this week before increasing to moderate Friday afternoon through Saturday. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 93 79 93 / 0 10 0 20 Victoria 78 93 76 93 / 10 20 0 20 Laredo 78 98 78 97 / 10 0 0 10 Alice 77 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 20 Rockport 83 92 82 93 / 0 10 0 20 Cotulla 80 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 78 93 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 83 90 82 90 / 10 10 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244-342>344. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...LS/77