212
FXUS63 KDDC 191003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms for much of the morning today and cooler
  temperatures through the afternoon.

- Warming trend for the end of the week and hot temperatures
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

07z observations and upper air analysis has a line of strong
storms located in the Oklahoma and far northern Texas panhandle
with a large area of stratiform rainfall to the north extending
from Elkhart to Salina. This line of rain is basically
straddling slow moving cold front. In the upper levels we
continue with southwest flow in the 500 mb layer with a
shortwave in the vicinity of the front which is providing the
lift to keep the storms going.

Overall today for much of the morning we should see the
widespread rain continue. Models have had a hard time picking up
on the location of the front as all of them have the boundary
much further north into Kansas and as such that is where they
are putting the highest rainfall. We should see some northward
propagation of the front by late morning and with continued
lift in the 700 mb layer we could receiving another 0.25-0.75
inches of additional rainfall with the highest POPs (60-70%) along
the KS-OK border and lower POPs as you move north. With rainfall
estimates from Tuesday`s storms showing localized amounts of 2-5
inches the flood watch will continue for much of southwest
Kansas. Rain should become more spotty in nature by the
afternoon as the main forcing in the upper levels weakens and
exits with the main area of light rain along the KS-CO border.
With the extensive cloud cover, rainfall, and east to northeast
winds the temperatures today will be much cooler for mid June
standards as highs will get into the 70s.

Rain should diminish and wrap up by tonight and the clouds will
break up as we go into Thursday which will start our warming
trend. With more sunshine and boundary layer winds picking up
out of the south we should see highs reach into the 80s.

Ensemble trends into the weekend show the large high in the
eastern CONUS retrograding into the central plains which will
lift the polar jet stream up to along the CONUS-Canadian border.
This will cut down our chances of rain dramatically for the rest
of the long term outlook and increase our confidence in a
stretch of hot weather. We will have certain probabilities of
>90 degree highs (90-100%) for southwest Kansas Saturday-
Wednesday and high probabilities (60-80%) of >100 degree highs
Monday-Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

MVFR to IFR flight category through 18Z as a large area of
scattered rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will move
across southwest Kansas. After 18z cloud ceilings should slowly
increase and the coverage of rain will diminish. All terminals
should be in VFR flight category by late afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ030-031-044>046-
063>066-076>080-085>088.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro