934
FXUS63 KDLH 051125
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will be exiting to the west through the morning

- Another round of showers and storms will be possible this afternoon.
  Some storms may be severe with hail up to 1" in diameter and
  damaging winds of 60 mph.

- Continued off and on chances of showers through the end of the
  week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Current conditions:

Showers are exiting to the east this morning as a cold front moves
into western WI. Browsing through some of the derived rain totals
the majority of the region saw 1-2 inches with a few spots slightly
higher due to brief thunderstorms. Hydro gauges do show a few jumps
in response to this rains. Primarily through the St. Croix up into
the Nemadji. We`ve manage to scrounge up a few reports of some very
minor flooding on roadways near the Nemadji. We are going to keep
the Flood Watch going through the early morning hours as we collect
more reports, but I expect that we should be able to start trimming
away if not completely expire the product before noon.

Today:

Active weather doesn`t stop for today. An upper level wave will be
moving across the region today providing another round of showers
and storms. Lack of a boundary for storms to fire off of with this
system will keep the activity more scattered in nature. Diurnal
heating will see some recovery in instability today as highs climb
into the low 70s. There should be enough residual moisture around to
allow for MLCAPEs of a could hundred J/kg. Bulk shear is a little
lacking with low speeds of around 20 kts. Regardless, cooling
temperatures aloft will see favorable mid and low level lapse rates
for storms to fester in. Unidirectional westerly winds also lend
itself to some increased damaging wind threat. A few low topped
supercells could also produce some hail up to 1" in diameter. SPC
has the vast majority of the region highlighted in a marginal threat
(1 out of 5). Look for these showers and storms to populate in the
afternoon. Additionally, the scattered nature of these showers make
it difficult to judge which areas may see flooding impacts. But by
in large rain totals will be on the lower side with the HREF LPMM
highlighting a few areas seeing up to an inch of rain.

Thursday:

Noticeably cooler temps are expected for Thursday as northwesterly
flow brings our highs down into the upper 50s and low 60s. A
tightening pressure gradient will also lead to some gusty winds
close to 30 mph. Diurnally driven cumulus from the cyclonic flow
aloft will also generate some isolated showers. Lack of instability
in the forecast will keep thunderstorms chances low (less then 10%).

Into the Weekend and early next week:

Temperatures return to normal for Friday and into the weekend. Upper
level ridging out west keeps cyclonic flow aloft allowing for
continued rain chances (primarily in the afternoon) through the
weekend. At this time there are no signals for severe storms or
flooding concerns. High pressure and drier conditions briefly appear
on Monday. Beyond Monday there is not a good consensus among the 00Z
suite of deterministic guidance. For now, we are carrying 20% PoPs
for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front is exiting to the east this morning with widespread
showers out ahead of it. There are no lightning concerns this
morning. As the front moves off to the east rain showers will taper
off and we will return to VFR conditions. Westerly winds fill in
behind the front today with some diurnally driven showers and storms
in the afternoon. Severe weather chances have increased a bit with
some strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers are moving across western Lake Superior this morning and are
expected to exit by late morning. It`s a bit hard to get a good read
on the fog out over the Lake as upper level clouds mask the low
feature. West winds should be pushing the fog away from the near
shore but webcams haven`t been too much help this morning either.
For now, we have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 9AM.
This afternoon will see additional showers and storms populate.
Some of these storms may be severe with hail up to 1" in
diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph. This activity is expected
to wane as the sun goes down. Westerly winds increase on
Thursday and may be hazardous to small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>146-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt