788
FXUS64 KEPZ 010526
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1126 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Generally dry and hot conditions will continue into next week.
Highs over the weekend will be in the 90s to near 100 for the
lowlands, but come the middle of next week, the hottest days of
the year are likely starting Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Models at least through midweek in good agreement with
deterministic and ensemble means. Tonight will see mostly clear
skies with similar low temperatures to last night. Dryline will
push toward the Rio Grande by morning, however. Early impact in
the forecast could be a few storms popping over the Sacs Sat
afternoon as that dryline takes some time to retreat east. Some
good instability in the moist side of the boundary, so a low end
severe storm isn`t out of the question in eastern Otero county.
High temperatures tomorrow will approach 100 around ELP and the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, with mid to upper 90s for the remainder
of the lowlands.

A stronger westerly flow sets up for Sun/Mon which will keep
moisture east of the area and surface winds increase to 15-20 mph.
The weak wave that brings this increased winds will drop highs a
degree or two for Sunday compared to Saturday. Little change for
Monday, but highs will warm back toward the highs of Saturday
which means a few triple figures return for the lowest elevations.

Starting Tuesday, an upper low sets up over Northern Baja which
then helps a fairly amplified ridge to setup over the Borderland.
Hottest days of the year expected come Wednesday and Thursday. H85
temps on both the EC/GFS are around 34C-36C with the ensemble
means not much different. This would translate to highs 100-108
for the lowlands. NBM temps only 102/104 Wed/Thu for KELP and
these look low, so raised up a degree or two which may still not
be enough. One thing that may help keep highs from getting to 108
would be overnight lows will still be falling into the lower to
mid 70s and light winds under ridge may prevent full mixing.
There is also agreement that there will be some moisture pushing
back to the west. Moisture still looks fairly shallow with
trajectories not coming off the Gulf of Mexico, but right out of
central Mexico. With the extreme heat, could still see some
isolated thunderstorms forming over the mountains and pushing onto
the lowlands.

By Friday, GFS is lifting low into the Four Corners region while
the EC lifts it north, but keeps it out in the CA area. EC seems
more reasonable given the strength of the ridge. The main impact
from these differences will be how hot Friday will be. Still looks
like most lowland areas will reach at least 100-105. Again, went
above NBM guidance, but may still be not hot enough if that ridge
remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

VMC through forecast period. Shallow moisture intrusion from the
east reaching the Rio Grande Valley overnight and shifting surface
winds to the SE 130-160 AOB 6 knots. TS activity tomorrow afternoon
once again limited to the east of KELP, so no direct terminal
impacts expected. Surface winds shifting back to 220-250 at 10-15
knots tomorrow afternoon as dry air returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Hot and generally dry conditions through the next 5 days. A couple
of storms are possible over the Sacramento Mts Sat afternoon as
some moisture briefly pushes in overnight and lingers until mid
afternoon before pushing east. Winds will be on the increase for
Sunday and Monday with speeds of 15-20 mph expected along with
high temperatures over the lowlands around 100 and RH`s of 3-8%.
RFTI`s will generally be 4 with some 5`s thrown in around the
windiest areas. The hottest days of the year will arrive Wed as a
strong upper ridge builds in and highs will reach around 105 for
the lowest elevations, but most lowland areas will be right around
100 degrees. These temperatures are expected to continue into the
end of the week with some isolated storms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  62  94  61 /   0   0  30  10
Las Cruces               98  61  99  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  60  96  60 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               73  48  73  48 /   0   0  20   0
Truth or Consequences    95  62  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              88  57  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   97  56  97  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                94  57  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       97  66  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                98  61  97  58 /   0   0  30  10
Fort Hancock            100  60 101  60 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               90  61  91  61 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   99  62 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             95  58  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           97  67  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            96  57  96  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    98  57  98  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 96  62  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                95  62  95  61 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  82  51  85  52 /  10   0  30  10
Mescalero                84  51  84  48 /   0   0  20   0
Timberon                 82  50  82  48 /   0   0  20  10
Winston                  87  54  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                93  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                95  55  95  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  52  89  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   91  54  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    96  55  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               90  57  90  45 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  90  58  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   94  57  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  94  59  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           94  58  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               89  58  89  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher