Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
043 FXUS64 KEPZ 121758 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1058 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026 - A passing low to our south will keep some clouds over the region and bring a low chance for light showers over southern Hudspeth county this evening; but the rest of the region will remain dry and clear. - High pressure noses in from the west to keep the region`s weather fair and dry, with fewer clouds, lighter winds, and temperatures warming to slightly above normal through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026 Currently a lingering upper level low is slowly pushing eastward across northern Mexico. The circulation and weather associated with this low is pulling some moisture and clouds northward across locations near the border. The main effect from this trough will be to spin some clouds up across the southern part of our region. There will be a chance (30 to 40%) of light rain for parts of southern Hudspeth County this evening, otherwise the clouds will be the only impact we see from the system just to our south. After today a some what interesting, but not impactful weather pattern will set up. For Tuesday through around Friday we will have a weather traffic jamming or what is called a block pattern to our west. A Rex block looks to develop along the west coast. A Rex block occurs when an upper level ridge becomes centered to the north of an upper level trough. Because of the flow around the high and low, this type of pattern "gets stuck" in the flow and that will be the case this week. We will see an upper level ridge anchored over the Pacific Northwest, while at the same time we will see an upper level trough anchored to the west of the Baja of Mexico Tuesday through Friday. Mean while to our east will be a series of upper level troughs moving through Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Between the Rex block to our west and the upper level troughs to our east, that will give us a dry northwest flow aloft for much of this week. This will give us little chance for precipitation and only modest warming each day. As a matter of fact we will see a couple of shots of cooler air try and push into the region, but right now their impacts look to be minimal. High temperatures through Friday will run 2 to 5 degrees above average each day. For next weekend we will see upper level high pressure try to build into the western U.S. which will keep our weather dry and warm us up a few more degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026 A weak upper level storm system to our south will keep clouds across airports near the International Border, expect occasional mid and high ceilings for KDMN, KLRU and KELP of SCT-BKN050-080. The clouds will linger into the evening hours and then become less as we go into the overnight hours. Winds today will be light and some what variable and those light and variable winds will continue tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026 We are moving into a quieter weather pattern. Temperatures will be a little above normal and no strong wind events are expected through this coming weekend. We will be dry with only a slight chance for rain today in southern Hudspeth County, but then dry through Sunday. We will be dry min RH`s wise, but not too dry. Each day through the weekend looks to have min RH`s near 20% in the lowlands and in the 30`s in area mountains. Ventilation rates on Tuesday will be poor to fair and then improve a little on Wednesday with fair to good vent rates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 33 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 33 56 32 58 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 26 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 25 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 45 26 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 30 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 27 58 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 26 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 25 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 34 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 24 60 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 33 61 30 65 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 32 53 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 32 60 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 28 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 33 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 22 59 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 24 63 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 28 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 27 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 25 58 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 23 55 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 22 53 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 22 58 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 30 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 23 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 22 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 25 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 25 59 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 29 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 25 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 23 58 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 26 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 33 56 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice