760
FXUS64 KEPZ 210546
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1046 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1031 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2025

 - Tonight a second cold front pushes in with strong east winds,
   Dangerously cold windchills for most of the region through the
   night into Tuesday morning. Slight chance for light snow for
   the Sacramento Mountains tonight.

 - Dry and cool for the week ahead, with slow warming back to
   normal and above for the weekend. Winds look to be breezy to
   windy for the weekend. The week ahead looks to stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2025

A large long wave UL trough covers the entire CONUS this
afternoon, which is allowing arctic air to seep south along and
east of the Rockies. A s/w trough over the Four Corners will drop
south this afternoon and tonight, which will reinforce the arctic
air in place across the Borderland. Temperatures in the teens and
20s with near zero in the mountains will combine with breezy
easterly winds to create dangerously cold wind chills by morning
with lowlands ranging 0 to 5 west of the Divide and 5 to 15
elsewhere with below zero in the mountains. I upgraded the cold
weather advisory to an extreme cold warning across Hidalgo County
where NBM, HREF, and current forecast all indicate wind chill
values will drop below 5. Elsewhere, the cold weather products
inherited look good. Lowland highs are forecast to be below 40 in
the lowlands with another cold night expected for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Winds will be much lighter, however, so it will not
feel as cold. Nevertheless, cold weather advisories may be needed
again for mountains and some lowland locations.

Meridional to NW`ly flow aloft continues through Friday before
flow begins to become zonal then SW`ly going into the weekend. A
weak s/w will pass nearby on Thursday but to little consequence.
Temperatures will moderate to around 5 or so degrees below normal
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, but the zonal to SW`LY flow
will push temperatures well above normal going into Saturday and
Sunday. A large closed low will also be forming toward CA or NV,
which will make for breezy afternoons this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2025

The gusty east winds are here. We will continue to see low end
gusty winds for the next 2 to 4 hours, before winds slow a little
and the wind gusts drop off. By late Tuesday morning, our winds
will become light and variable. We have some high and mid clouds
moving along the International Border, but most of the clouds will
be gone in the next few hours, so that we will have unlimited
ceilings for most of the day on Tuesday. Temperatures and
windchill values will be very low Tuesday morning, so anyone
working outside on the ramps or a tarmac should dress
appropriately.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2025

Cold, dry arctic air will be moving into the region again this
evening from east to west. Temperatures will be noticeably colder
for tomorrow afternoon but min RH values will stay in the upper
teens to lower 20s. Temperatures recover for Wednesday and then
hold steady into Friday with min RH values in the lower to mid
teens. The front will bring breezy conditions to the area tonight
and into the morning but will decrease throughout the day. Winds
will remain light through Friday. Venting will be poor except in
the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  21  38  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            14  35  17  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               18  37  17  50 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               11  36  13  51 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft                0  25  13  37 /  10  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    15  37  17  51 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              11  37  19  55 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   15  38  13  52 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                14  39  12  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       21  37  22  48 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                15  37  12  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             16  41  14  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               14  31  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   17  38  17  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             18  36  17  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           19  38  22  50 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            12  36  12  50 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    15  40  13  53 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 21  38  17  50 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                14  34  15  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                   3  39  21  52 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero                 1  32  14  47 /  10  10   0   0
Timberon                  0  31  12  47 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                   1  38  12  52 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                11  38  19  52 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                11  38  12  52 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts              8  43  19  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                    8  37  13  53 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                     0  46   5  61 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               11  43  18  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  13  36  18  50 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   16  41  12  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  14  38  12  53 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           16  39  16  55 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               17  37  20  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM MST Tuesday for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern
     Hudspeth Highlands.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST Tuesday for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM MST Tuesday for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
     7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the
     Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
     Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST Tuesday for Northern Dona
     Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
     Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice