Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021945
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
145 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Thunderstorms will be possible today, but quiet and warm weather
is expected through Thursday. Cooler air arrives sometime Thursday
while low rain chances return on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
The Rest of Today:
Busy day is unfolding though impacts have been low so far. Large
UL trough/ low is slowly shifting east with its center over far NE
NV. Jet streak is rounding the base of the main trough, which is
beginning to impinge across NM. At the surface, a dryline is
sharpening across the eastern portion of our CWA with a secondary
tongue of moisture moving up along and west of the Divide. The
eastern boundary has been slow to trigger convection across the
CWA but probably because UL forcing-for-ascent hasn`t arrive yet.
It does appear to have arrived for the western moisture tongue as
scattered thunderstorms have developed, especially across the
Gila. These storms will gradually shift east over the remainder
of the afternoon and evening while the eastern boundary shifts
into ABQ/ MAF`s CWA. A few strong storms will be possible with
damaging winds the main concern. Some flooding could also occur as
northeasterly storm motion has already favored some minor
training of storms. After dark, convection will begin to wane
and/or exit.
Remainder of the Period:
A Pacific front will push through tonight along with the
preliminary UL trough. A portion of the UL trough will lag behind,
which will keep the CWA at the base of the larger trough. Tuesday
and Wednesday will be breezy each afternoon while highs remain
above average though a degree or two cooler than what we`ve seen.
A secondary s/w will swing the base of the trough late Wednesday
into Thursday, which will force a fairly strong Fall cold front
southward. Models have slowed the progression of this front, and
Thursday is looking warmer. Friday does show cooling with more
pronounced cooling on Saturday courtesy of a secondary push of the
Fall air mass. These two cold fronts will switch our winds to the
east. This may open us up to the Gulf, but models are struggling
on where to place moisture and the UL pattern. Will we have an UL
ridge over us as we head into the weekend or will a weak,
introverted trough move in from the south along with healthy
moisture? The former keeps us dry while the latter gives us some
healthy rainfall. The answer changes with every model run. Either
way, NBM QPF probabilities are down since yesterday as are POPs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Primarily VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with
variable skies. Bases will generally be AOA 090. TSRA/SHRA will be
possible this afternoon and evening for all sites. As of this
writing, a broken line of showers and storms was trying to
develop toward the AZ border. These are expected to shift
gradually to the east and northeast. Storm development will be
possible elsewhere too. The main impacts from any storms will be
gusty winds and brief reductions in visibility though instances of
hail cannot be ruled out. Confidence on timing is a bit low,
however, so amendments will be added as storms approach terminal
sites. Outside of storms, winds will be breezy from the south to
southwest (200-240) with speeds to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots.
Winds should ease after dark while any remaining storms or
showers dissipate.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Minimal fire concerns for the period, but drier air will push in
from the west, which will bring min RH values into the teens for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will top out around 10 MPH. A cold
front is expected to arrive Thursday, but timing is uncertain.
Vent rates will generally run very good for Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 66 88 63 87 / 20 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 58 81 59 81 / 40 0 10 10
Las Cruces 55 82 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 57 80 54 81 / 20 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 43 58 41 59 / 30 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 52 80 51 78 / 20 0 0 0
Silver City 47 72 49 74 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 51 83 49 82 / 20 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 80 49 80 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 63 85 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
Dell City 59 86 59 85 / 30 0 0 10
Fort Hancock 62 88 62 87 / 40 0 10 10
Loma Linda 58 78 59 78 / 20 0 0 10
Fabens 62 87 60 86 / 20 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 58 83 55 83 / 20 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 60 83 60 83 / 20 0 0 0
Jornada Range 55 81 52 81 / 20 0 0 0
Hatch 53 83 50 82 / 20 0 0 0
Columbus 56 85 54 83 / 20 0 0 0
Orogrande 57 80 55 81 / 30 0 0 0
Mayhill 47 70 46 72 / 20 0 0 10
Mescalero 46 68 44 70 / 30 0 0 10
Timberon 44 67 44 68 / 30 0 0 10
Winston 42 73 40 72 / 20 0 0 0
Hillsboro 48 80 49 78 / 20 0 0 0
Spaceport 51 80 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 40 71 41 73 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 48 78 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 43 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 51 77 50 77 / 20 0 0 0
Animas 49 83 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 51 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 52 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 51 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown