Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260939
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas today. As a result there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Several storms may
produce damaging winds...hail and heavy rainfalls. West to
southwest winds will bring warm dry weather with above normal
temperatures Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will cause
cooler temperatures this weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
East to southeast winds will advect low level moisture into
southern New Mexico and west west Texas today and this will
result in surface dewpoints around 45 to 50 across central and
eastern zones by late afternoon. The combination of of warm
temperatures and moisture will destabilize the air mass causing
CAPE`s to rise to around 700 to 1400 J/kg by late afternoon. In
addition water vapor content will be well above normal with
precipitable water around .75 to 1 inch for central and eastern
areas. Thus risk for deep convection will exist. Deep layer
surface to 6 km shear will be over 40 kt as 40 kt mid level
westerly winds overlay low level southeasterlies indicating
possible updraft rotation and enhancement. Wet bulb zero heights
will be near 9000 feet while DCAPE`s will be mostly above 1000
J/kg. These factors all suggest a few storms could produce strong
damaging winds and/or large hail. In addition precipitable water
water amounts suggest several storms may produce torrential rains
especially if it includes a rotating updraft.

Main question is extent of storm coverage due to uncertainties in
effectiveness of any storm initiation mechanisms. The GFS model
hints at weak embedded waves aloft in flow while NAM and
especially ECMWF keep most convection suppressed under weak ridge
aloft. Low level convergence focused on surface dry line trough
will exist though it may be too far west of greater instability.
Finally little convective inhibition expected so surface heating
may initiate a few storms with subsequent outflows sustaining
activity. All things considered will forecast mainly isolated
storms this afternoon with mostly scattered activity this evening
per mesoscale and convection allowing models.

By Wednesday low level flow becomes west to southwest under
westerly winds aloft band this scenario will advect warmer dry air
mass into the CWA. Thus expect dry weather with above normal
temperatures Wednesday through Friday. A passing upper wave and
associated surface cyclogenesis to the northeast may also cause
breezy to marginally windy conditions Friday though wind speeds
should stay below advisory criteria most areas.

Pacific cold front will move across the CWA later Friday causing
cooler below normal temperatures Saturday. Models continue to have
significant disagreements after Saturday with ECMWF having a
colder wetter solution Sunday due to deeper upper trough moving
into the area. Blended model solutions and ensembles suggest this
may be an outlier so will have a mostly dry not-so-cold outlook
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 26/12Z-27/12Z. A few areas of MVFR or IFR
ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms mainly from
21z-06z. Storms may produce hail up to an inch in diameter and
wind gusts to 50 kt. Otherwise VFR conditions with skies SCT050
SCT-BKN100-200. Surface winds around 5-15KTS outside of
thunderstorm areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas today. As a result there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Several storms may
produce damaging winds...hail and heavy rainfalls. West to
southwest winds will bring warm dry weather with temperatures
around 5 to 10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday.
Surface winds around 5 to 15 mph today and Wednesday and around 15
to 25 mph Thursday and Friday. Thus Red Flag conditions may exist
over a few locations Thursday and Friday afternoons. A cold front
will cause cooler below normal temperatures this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 77  58  82  57 /  20  40   0   0
Sierra Blanca           72  51  78  50 /  20  40   0   0
Las Cruces              75  52  80  50 /  20  40   0   0
Alamogordo              72  52  81  51 /  20  40   0   0
Cloudcroft              59  41  63  41 /  20  40   0   0
Truth or Consequences   72  52  81  50 /  20  30   0   0
Silver City             67  47  75  47 /   0  10   0   0
Deming                  75  48  81  45 /  20  30   0   0
Lordsburg               76  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      75  58  78  56 /  20  40   0   0
Dell City               71  50  82  49 /  20  40   0   0
Fort Hancock            78  56  86  53 /  20  40   0   0
Loma Linda              70  51  79  52 /  20  40   0   0
Fabens                  78  56  83  54 /  20  40   0   0
Santa Teresa            76  53  80  52 /  20  40   0   0
White Sands HQ          73  55  81  55 /  20  40   0   0
Jornada Range           73  51  80  49 /  20  40   0   0
Hatch                   75  50  82  48 /  20  30   0   0
Columbus                77  52  83  51 /  20  30   0   0
Orogrande               72  51  80  50 /  20  40   0   0
Mayhill                 64  44  74  45 /  20  30   0   0
Mescalero               66  45  73  45 /  20  30   0   0
Timberon                61  42  70  42 /  20  40   0   0
Winston                 67  40  77  42 /  20  30   0   0
Hillsboro               71  47  81  48 /  20  30   0   0
Spaceport               72  48  80  47 /  20  30   0   0
Lake Roberts            68  42  77  41 /  20  20   0   0
Hurley                  69  45  79  44 /   0  20   0   0
Cliff                   73  43  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              71  44  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 69  47  79  46 /  20  20   0   0
Animas                  78  48  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 77  45  82  43 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          77  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              74  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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