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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
Suspended DU has resulted in reduced VIS and HZ over the last
several hours. MVFR VIS has been reported at KDMN and KLRU,
expecting VIS to slowly rise back to VFR after sunrise as the HZ
lifts. Otherwise, another round of mountain SHRA and TSRA this
afternoon, with around a 10% chance for terminals between 20 to
02Z, so no inclusion as confidence is low. Better chance will be
for gusty N to NE outflow winds during the evening hours, with
associated BLDU and VIS reductions.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...356 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see another hot day on Sunday, but not as hot as we saw on
Saturday. We will also see a slight chance for evening
thunderstorms which could produce some gusty winds and blowing
dust this evening. For most of next week, we will see a slight
chance for a thunderstorms, mainly in area mountains. High
temperatures for most of the week will be a few degrees above
average, which will keep most lowland locations near the 100
degree mark each day. For next weekend we will continue to see a
slight chance for thunderstorms and our high temperatures will
slowly begin to increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Sunday and Sunday Night.
Another hot afternoon expected as the upper shifts slightly to the
NW of the CWA, strengthening by a few Dm. Still, this shift should
be enough to cool temps to around 104 to 106 most lowland locations
(instead of the 109 at KELP Saturday...). Heat advisories follow
through Sunday night as a result.

Another afternoon of modest at best moisture, but enough instability
to get the ball rolling, across area mtns especially. The Sacs and
adjacent lower elevations have the best shot at modest to moderate
precip and a stronger storm. The Gila/Black Range will be another
focal point for convection. CAMs indicate popcorn type storms pop
across some lowland locations, so broad brushed 10 POPs basically
north of El Paso to include Deming and Las Cruces late this PM into
the evening, although actual precip reaching the ground in these
locations will likely be rather light. General NE flow aloft and the
N to S or NE to SW movement of potential storms off the higher
terrain suggest the potential for rather potent outflow winds down
the Tularosa Basin and into portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
Blowing dust will be another concern once again.

Most if not all activity will diminish shortly after sunset, and
certainly by Midnight. Presumably nothing too out of the ordinary
for Sunday night, just continued mild to warm low temperatures. Did
note the HRRR has a decent outflow from convection to our north
approach the area by the end of the period (Monday AM). We`ll see if
this manifests in subsequent runs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
For the long term forecast we will continue to watch the slow
journey of the upper level ridge. On Monday the upper level ridge
will continue it`s slow travels to the Four Corners Region. Aloft
we will have a dry northeast flow, while at the surface we will
continue to see an east flow. The east flow, tries and pull in a
little moisture, but the dry air aloft is just too much. Each day
this coming week we will see just a slight chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. Right now the slight chance pops are
mainly in the mountains and really just in the Gila Region. Our
high temperatures this week will run a few degrees above average,
which will put most lowland locations right at the 100 degree
mark. The upper level ridge will be slow to move much, once it
settles over the Four Corner Region, that is why our weather won`t
change much this week. For next weekend, the upper level ridge
will be on the move as it drops slowly south into Arizona. This
will allow our high temperatures to creep a little higher, but it
also may allow some moisture to slip into the region, so we will
see a slight chance for thunderstorms in both the mountains and
the lowlands this weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening, focusing across the Sacramento mountains, Black Range, and
adjacent lower elevations. Iso dry lightning possible as well,
especially outside of the Sacramento mountains. Gusty winds will be
the primary concern with this activity. Continued hot conditions,
with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal, continuing at
about 5 degrees above normal through early to mid next week.
Expecting mostly dry conditions through much of next week, although
could be a very isolated storm across the highest terrain early next
week. Ventilation generally Good to Excellent as winds remain 8 to
15 mph most afternoons outside of convectively driven outflow
winds.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                105  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           99  68  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             104  72 103  72 /   0  10   0   0
Alamogordo             104  71 102  69 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              79  55  78  52 /  20  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences  103  73 103  72 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City             98  71  97  68 /   0  10   0   0
Deming                 105  70 105  69 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg              105  73 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     105  78 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              102  68 100  67 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Hancock           105  71 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              97  71  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 106  75 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           104  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ         103  76 102  76 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range          103  71 101  70 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                  106  71 104  70 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus               105  73 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande              104  72 101  72 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                 90  58  89  56 /  30  10  10   0
Mescalero               89  58  89  56 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                87  56  86  55 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                 95  59  97  59 /  20  10   0   0
Hillsboro              101  70 100  68 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport              104  70 101  69 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts           100  55 100  62 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                 100  66 100  64 /   0  10   0   0
Cliff                  103  56 108  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek             101  56 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                100  71  99  68 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                 106  69 105  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                104  71 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells         105  71 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale             100  69 100  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ404>407-409>413-
     417.

TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

35-Delizio/15/35