Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182135
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
235 PM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant borderland weather with passing high clouds and light
winds will continue into early next week, before another disturbance
returns breezy conditions and rain chances to the area later
Tuesday. Active weather pattern remains on tap going forward, as
westerly flow carries additional systems in from the west coast.
These will be dry for the most part, with breezy to locally west
winds expected as the main impacts from each feature. Highs most
days will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
New Mexico and west Texas remain under broad westerly flow aloft,
with a weakened upper level trough just upstream aligned nearly
east-west from srn NV to wrn KS. Feature will continue weaken, as
it is forced southeast out of the area. Influence is from building
ridge of upper level high pressure over the IM west and four corners.
Current imagery continues to depict scattered Ci over the borderland.

Areas of high pressure aloft over the west coast will continue to
organize into upper lvl ridge, which translates eastward across
the IM west Mon and Tue.  Minor upper level trough aloft will
continue our way from southern Ca, while weakening under increasing
influence from the upper ridge as it approaches.

More progressive zonal flow will follow and feature a fetch from
California through remainder of next week. Next in a series of
disturbances should move across later on Thursday, with breezy to
locally windy west winds anticipated at that time. Localized
blowing dust along sensitive areas such as I-10 west of Lordsburg,
would serve as the main impact in this area. Upper level trough
should remain mostly dry, with only slight chances of rain and
high elevation snow generally at 8000 ft and above in the forecast.
Feature carries a weak pacific cold front across with only a few
degrees of cooling anticipated by end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
Continue to expect VFR conditions thru the period. Winds are
generally light around 5 kts, except over the Gila Region where
speeds are between 5 to 10 kts. Wind direction will be variable
early on and shifting to the north after 09Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak high pressure area aloft will move through the region
tomorrow. This will continue to bring dry weather and a slow warm up
to near normal temperatures for the season. Humidity will remain
usually between the mid to upper 20s and 30s as the ridge moves on.
By Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper trough brings a chance for
precipitation, especially for areas east of the Rio Grande. The
higher elevations of the Sacramento Mountains have chance for snow.
After this system, there will be a series of upper level
disturbances moving over us which have slight chances for
precipitation, but it is still a bit unclear as models diverge in
their solutions. Ventilation rates continue to be mostly poor with
some fair areas, due to generally low mixing heights and light
transport winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  65  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           33  62  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              33  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              33  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              25  48  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   34  61  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             31  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  29  64  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               34  65  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  64  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               32  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            36  67  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  61  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  34  66  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            34  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          35  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           29  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   29  63  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                34  64  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               34  62  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 27  56  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               28  56  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                27  54  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 27  57  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               32  61  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               29  61  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  29  62  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   22  63  21  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              22  62  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 31  60  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  34  66  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 30  64  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          35  65  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              36  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22/29


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