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617
FXUS64 KEPZ 212055
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
255 PM MDT Tue May 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
If you are counting the number of windy days across the
Borderland, add another for Wednesday. Unfortunately it won`t be
the last one upcoming. Another Pacific storm system approaches
Wednesday to bring more strong and gusty southwesterly winds and
areas of blowing dust across the region. Southwestern New Mexico
will be under another Wind Advisory, while Far West Texas sees
strong winds, but falls just short of the speeds required. The
area will continue it`s string of dry conditions through the rest
of the week. This means more clear skies than clouds. Each day the
upcoming weekend temperatures will to run at or above seasonal
averages. Winds will drop off Thursday through the weekend, but
still remain breezy these days, before the next strong wind event
arrives next Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
At this point in the year, the current upper-level weather
pattern suggests we are running about a month and a half behind
the typical seasonal evolution from late winter to spring to
summer. Our deeply amplified wave pattern aloft, and southern jet
position are more typical of early spring offerings than mid-May
dominance as we are currently seeing. Boiled down to measurable
weather elements, it means generally dry, mild, and windy
conditions for our region. This forecast largely follows that
theme.

Yesterday`s low pressure passage is out in the plains, but
a long wave mean trough remains carved out across the Western U.S.
We sit in the base of this trough with a strong jet overhead, and
mean surface troughing to our east. The result is tight pressure
gradients and good daytime mixdown of strong winds aloft to make
for breezy to windy afternoon conditions for most days of this
7-day forecast package.

Wednesday we start a warming trend as we shift winds back to
southwest and keep dry air inbound across the region. The mean
western U.S. trough remains through the work week and we see
another low pressure system swing by, well to our north, for
Thursday. A few more clouds for the Gila but no pcpn expected. We
will see a minor Pacific front passage to cool temps just a few
degrees. The pattern of deep southwesterly flow will continue to
keep our winds in the breezy category. With the surface trough
attempting to reposition over our eastern CWFA, the western CWFA
zones will see the highest winds, while the eastern CWFA (Otero
lowlands and Far West Texas) possibly sees sub-breezy wind
conditions for Fri- Sun. With the surface trough shifting west
over the heart of our CWFA, we will also see the dryline drawn
west into Far West Texas and South Central New Mexico. Current
GFS, and to a lesser degree, the ECMWF indicate the dryline will
wash up against, and slightly intrude, our eastern boundary Friday
night into Saturday. Thus we do have slight PoPs in for Hudspeth
and Otero counties for this period. The gulf moisture should be a
very short-lived ingredient in our region, with it getting shoved
back east Saturday afternoon. However, it does linger nearby and
might try to reenter Saturday overnight into Sunday morning. We`ll
watch that.

Monday and Tuesday of next week look like they could be a carbon
copy repeat of what we saw yesterday (this MON) and today (TUE).
Another deep upper low will approach from the west and then lift
across the Four Corners region. This will again position a strong
jet over the area, and induce a deep lee surface trough to our
east. Strong pressure gradients and deep mixing will bring back
strong winds similar to what we saw yesterday. It will be a dry
passage. Thus winds and dust will be be main impacts.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR conditions prevail thru this period. The upper system that
affected the region yesterday is moving away, but we will still feel
its influence as windy conditions remain thru this evening.
Generally west to southwest winds with speeds between 15 to 25 kts
are expected thru 9Z. Afterwards wind speeds should decrease between
10 to 15 kts with some gusty isolated locations. The approach of
another system will increase the intensity of the winds again
tomorrow after 18Z.

29-Crespo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions continue over the next few days. An
upper level system that is leaving the area is responsible for
today`s critical conditions, but an incoming system is responsible
for tomorrow`s increased risk. More dry air is expected as the next
system tries to move into the region. Minimum relative humidity
values will be in the upper single digits and the lower teens in the
lowlands while the mountains continue in the upper teens and lower
20s over the next few days. While the winds will be around 15 to 25
mph, but stronger for the western zones with speeds in the range of
25 to 35 mph.

The winds intensity is expected to decrease on Thursday which will
prevent the development of fire weather conditions. However, it is
not by a lot. Humidity continues to be in the teens in most areas
late this week and the weekend. Early next week, we may again have
another chance for critical fire weather conditions as another
strong upper system moves in with dry air and windy conditions.

29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           54  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  83  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  59  42  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   51  78  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             45  72  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  49  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               47  80  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      58  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               54  90  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            58  94  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              55  82  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  57  90  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            54  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  83  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  81  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   50  81  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                52  85  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               53  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  71  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               44  69  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                42  69  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 40  69  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               47  76  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               48  78  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            39  72  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   40  79  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              43  72  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 45  77  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  49  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 48  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          50  81  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              47  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111-112.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ402>411-
     414>416.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ414>416.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

14/29