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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021945
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
145 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Thunderstorms will be possible today, but quiet and warm weather
is expected through Thursday. Cooler air arrives sometime Thursday
while low rain chances return on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The Rest of Today:
Busy day is unfolding though impacts have been low so far. Large
UL trough/ low is slowly shifting east with its center over far NE
NV. Jet streak is rounding the base of the main trough, which is
beginning to impinge across NM. At the surface, a dryline is
sharpening across the eastern portion of our CWA with a secondary
tongue of moisture moving up along and west of the Divide. The
eastern boundary has been slow to trigger convection across the
CWA but probably because UL forcing-for-ascent hasn`t arrive yet.
It does appear to have arrived for the western moisture tongue as
scattered thunderstorms have developed, especially across the
Gila. These storms will gradually shift east over the remainder
of the afternoon and evening while the eastern boundary shifts
into ABQ/ MAF`s CWA. A few strong storms will be possible with
damaging winds the main concern. Some flooding could also occur as
northeasterly storm motion has already favored some minor
training of storms. After dark, convection will begin to wane
and/or exit.

Remainder of the Period:
A Pacific front will push through tonight along with the
preliminary UL trough. A portion of the UL trough will lag behind,
which will keep the CWA at the base of the larger trough. Tuesday
and Wednesday will be breezy each afternoon while highs remain
above average though a degree or two cooler than what we`ve seen.
A secondary s/w will swing the base of the trough late Wednesday
into Thursday, which will force a fairly strong Fall cold front
southward. Models have slowed the progression of this front, and
Thursday is looking warmer. Friday does show cooling with more
pronounced cooling on Saturday courtesy of a secondary push of the
Fall air mass. These two cold fronts will switch our winds to the
east. This may open us up to the Gulf, but models are struggling
on where to place moisture and the UL pattern. Will we have an UL
ridge over us as we head into the weekend or will a weak,
introverted trough move in from the south along with healthy
moisture? The former keeps us dry while the latter gives us some
healthy rainfall. The answer changes with every model run. Either
way, NBM QPF probabilities are down since yesterday as are POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Primarily VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with
variable skies. Bases will generally be AOA 090. TSRA/SHRA will be
possible this afternoon and evening for all sites. As of this
writing, a broken line of showers and storms was trying to
develop toward the AZ border. These are expected to shift
gradually to the east and northeast. Storm development will be
possible elsewhere too. The main impacts from any storms will be
gusty winds and brief reductions in visibility though instances of
hail cannot be ruled out. Confidence on timing is a bit low,
however, so amendments will be added as storms approach terminal
sites. Outside of storms, winds will be breezy from the south to
southwest (200-240) with speeds to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots.
Winds should ease after dark while any remaining storms or
showers dissipate.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Minimal fire concerns for the period, but drier air will push in
from the west, which will bring min RH values into the teens for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will top out around 10 MPH. A cold
front is expected to arrive Thursday, but timing is uncertain.
Vent rates will generally run very good for Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  88  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  81  59  81 /  40   0  10  10
Las Cruces               55  82  53  82 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  80  54  81 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  58  41  59 /  30   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    52  80  51  78 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              47  72  49  74 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   51  83  49  82 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  80  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                59  86  59  85 /  30   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             62  88  62  87 /  40   0  10  10
Loma Linda               58  78  59  78 /  20   0   0  10
Fabens                   62  87  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  83  55  83 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range            55  81  52  81 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  83  50  82 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  85  54  83 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  80  55  81 /  30   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  70  46  72 /  20   0   0  10
Mescalero                46  68  44  70 /  30   0   0  10
Timberon                 44  67  44  68 /  30   0   0  10
Winston                  42  73  40  72 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  80  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport                51  80  49  79 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             40  71  41  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   48  78  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  51  77  50  77 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                   49  83  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  83  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  78  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown