Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 122307
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
507 PM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions through period. Skies SKC-SCT150-200 through 18Z
then expect some FEW-SCT090-110 developing over Hudspeth and
Otero counties. Winds will remain west to southwest west of the
Divide at 5-15KTS with some gusts to 25KTS after 18Z. To the east,
winds will be shifting to the east to southeast at 5-15KTS
overnight and turning south to southwest up to the El Paso-
Hudspeth county line by the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...100 PM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite a fluctuating dryline/cold front lingering along the
eastern CWA boundary, little change is expected in the overall
weather pattern from day to day. Warm conditions and breezy
afternoons will persist through the rest of the work week.
Thursday is forecast to have the gustiest winds of the week along
with widespread high cloud coverage. A slow-moving upper level
trough will skirt by to the north Friday morning cooling
temperatures by several degrees. The main weather feature of the
forecast period will be a stronger backdoor cold front pushing in
from the northeast Friday night into Saturday morning. This front
will cool temperatures significantly for the weekend, and combine
with a developing upper level low to spark scattered showers and
storms across portions of the area Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
This morning`s cloud coverage has moved out of the area and
should result in mostly clear skies the rest of the short term
period. Southwest flow aloft will continue our trend of dry and
seasonably warm weather into Tuesday.

A cooler frontal boundary currently located over southeast New
Mexico and the Trans-Pecos region will shift westward overnight. So
far, southwest flow over the area has held the boundary at bay, but
once the atmosphere decouples we should see another westward
progression like we saw last night. This will be evident by higher
dewpoints and easterly surface winds across far west Texas and Otero
County. This higher moisture won`t reach any further west than the
Rio Grande Valley as convergent surface flow begins to form a
dryline Tuesday afternoon. This boundary will be mentioned quite a
bit in the coming days, but will likely remain confined to our east
with no impacts for the El Paso area (see long term discussion for
details).

Despite the subtle increase in moisture and cooler temperatures
across the eastern CWA, no precipitation is expected on Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to run seasonably warm, with lowland
highs in the lower 80`s. Portions of Hudspeth and Otero County east
of the dryline will be much cooler.

Dry, southwest winds will remain in place across southwest New
Mexico Tuesday afternoon and become breezy once again. Wind speeds
of 15 to 20 mph will be common along with a few gusts to 35 mph.
Weaker southeast flow is expected across far west Texas and the
Tularosa Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Tuesday...
Breezy winds will subside through the evening on Tuesday. The
stalled cold front will push a bit further west overnight into
Wednesday morning, aligning itself with the Rio Grande valley.
Dewpoints will increase into the upper 30s to lower 40s for
eastern areas through the night. As daytime heating picks up on
Wednesday and southwesterly flow increases, the cold front will
retreat back to the east well outside of our CWA. This will mean
all locations will see southwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon.
Surface troughing will move into New Mexico ahead of an upper
level low spinning in the Great Basin. This will result in winds
becoming a slightly breezier Wednesday afternoon. The dryline/cold
front will then push back into far eastern portions of Otero and
Hudsepth Counties overnight into Thursday morning as westerly
winds relax. It won`t have much of an impact on the area aside
from a small increase in dewpoints and a shift in wind directions
out of the east.

The daytime hours on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday
as the dryline retreats back east by mid-day, highs will top out
in the lower 80s, and surface troughing will strengthen right over
the state. Currently expect Thursday to be the windiest day of
the period with the latest GFS run indicating 850mb wind speeds of
25-30 knots. This may result in patchy blowing dust across the
area, especially along the International Border. The most
noticeable difference from Wednesday will be the increase in cloud
cover as high level moisture starts to stream up into the area
ahead of the stalled upper level low finally beginning to move
east into the Four Corners region.

The upper level low will skirt by to the north Thursday night into
Friday finally getting rid of the pesky cold front/dryline to our
east. Winds will become northwesterly by Friday morning as a weak
Pacific cold front pushes through from the west. Expect Friday to
be relatively benign with gradually clearing skies, low-end breezy
winds, and high temperatures cooling by 3-6 degrees. The calm will
be short-lived, however, as a stronger backdoor cold front will
come barreling down the southern Plains and into the Borderland
Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will become easterly by
daybreak Saturday morning as the front rushes to the AZ/NM border.
Stronger gusts will be likely along western mountain slopes and
in the typically windy areas behind the frontal passage. It should
be pointed out that the ECMWF is much slower on the timing of the
cold front, holding it just to our east until Saturday afternoon.
Since it`s more normal for backdoor fronts to move through
overnight, I sided with the faster GFS solution. This would mean
temperatures will cool by at least 5-8 degrees Saturday and Sunday,
with some models even hinting at El Paso struggling to get out of
the low to mid 60s.

Looking aloft Saturday into Sunday, a secondary piece of energy
will drop down on the back edge of the broad trough over the
western US. This will combine with the backdoor cold front to
spark off scattered rain showers mainly east of the Rio Grande on
Saturday, then spreading to cover more of the Borderland through
the day on Sunday. The mountains could see some snow mix in Sunday
morning as snow levels drop to 6500-7000 feet. The best chance
for rain currently looks to occur Sunday evening through the day
on Monday as both models show a closed low carving out over AZ and
NM. This would help create better dynamics and perhaps even
enough instability to fire off some convection across the area,
especially on Monday. The ECMWF remains drier than the GFS, but
the 12Z run is showing a bit more scattered QPF across the higher
terrain. This system and its associated moisture will move out by
Monday night allowing upper level ridging to build back in for
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue over the next several
days as a persistent southwest flow weather pattern keeps conditions
similar day-to-day. Very dry surface air will keep humidity values
in the single digits (5-10%) each afternoon with modest overnight
recoveries (30-40%). Humidity values will be slightly higher
eastward, especially on Tuesday where surface moisture pushes into
the Sacramento Mountains and far west Texas.

Elevated fire danger will remain in place each afternoon as 20-foot
winds increase from the southwest at 15 to 20 mph. At the moment,
forecasted winds look to remain just below Red Flag criteria and
smoke ventilation will be Excellent throughout the week ahead.
Afternoon mixing to above 10,000 feet AGL will also assist with
daytime smoke dispersion. Our next chance of wetting precipitation
won`t occur until at least next weekend, when models suggest a cold
front arriving from the east and the possibility of scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           47  72  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  84  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              50  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  55  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   49  81  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             47  73  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  46  83  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               46  81  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      56  83  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               43  70  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            49  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              47  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  51  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            50  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          54  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           49  80  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   49  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                51  83  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               49  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 35  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               37  66  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                35  61  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 36  74  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               46  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               47  79  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            41  74  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  41  77  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   39  82  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              46  75  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 46  76  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  46  82  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 46  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          47  82  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              47  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/32/26


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