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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 241104
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
404 AM MST Thu Jan 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
We will have a sunny, but cool day today through Saturday with our
high temperatures running a few degrees below average. For Sunday
and Monday we will see our highs creep up to near or a few degrees
above average. Then on Tuesday a strong push of cold air will
bring strong winds, much colder temperatures and a slight chance
for lowland light rain and mountain light snow, mainly east of the
Rio Grande. For next Wednesday we will begin a warming trend, but
our highs will still be 5 to 8 degrees below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We will have a relatively quiet weather pattern through Monday
with just a couple of weak cold fronts of note until Tuesday when
a stronger cold front arrives to give us a brief change to our
weather. Currently a short wave was moving through Colorado
embedded in the dry northwest flow aloft. This short wave won`t
directly affect our weather, but it will help push a weak cold
front across the area this evening. Today`s highs will be a degree
or two below average and we might have seen a few degrees of
warming for Friday, but the weak cold front tonight, will help
keep our highs 2 to 3 degrees below average on Friday. On Saturday
we will continue to see slightly below average high temperatures
as a second weak cold front moves across the area. This second
weak front will be pushed across the area, like this evenings
front, with a short wave moving across northeast New Mexico.
Finally on Sunday our highs will have a chance to creep back to
near average and then as an upper level ridge tries to get
organized along the California coast we will see our highs on
Monday 3 to 5 degrees above average. But then things change on
Tuesday.

Early on Tuesday, yet another short wave, this one a little
stronger and a little further south, will move across New Mexico.
This short wave will help usher in a pretty strong back door cold
front. This front will drop our highs on Tuesday 10 to 15 degrees
below average and most lowland locations will struggle to get out
of the 40`s. In addition the front will give us some strong
easterly winds, especially on the west slopes of area mountains.
Finally since this short wave is a little stronger and a little
closer it will help create some light precipitation. Moisture with
this system will be lacking so the rain and snow will be light. We
could see some light snow even in the lowlands, but again the
impacts should be pretty minimal. On Wednesday we will see a few
degrees of warming, but our afternoon highs will still be 5 to 10
degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our ceilings will
be unlimited except for the occasional passing high cloud SKC-
FEW250. Our surface winds will generally be out of the west this
morning at 27008KT, but later this evening a weak cold front will
move down across the area and swing our winds around to the north
at 35010KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will have a generally quiet weather pattern over the next 7
days. A pair of weak cold fronts, one tonight and one on Saturday
will keep our temperatures at or a few degrees below average
through Saturday. Our one day of impactful weather will be next
Tuesday when a strong cold front moves across the region. This
front will drop our high temperatures well below average, give us
strong easterly winds and a slight chance for lowland light rain
and mountain light snow. Our winds for the next seven days will
stay below critical levels, except on Tuesday when we could see
winds of 20 to 30 mph. For today through Monday our min RH`s will
run in the teens in the lowlands to near 30% in the mountains.
Then for Tuesday we will see a slight increase in moisture so that
our min RH`s values will be closer to 30% for most of the area,
but then for Wednesday we will return to the teens in the lowlands
and in the 20`s in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 57  28  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           55  24  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              57  24  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              55  23  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  16  38  19 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   54  23  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             52  23  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  57  23  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               57  25  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      57  28  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               58  22  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            58  25  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              52  25  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  27  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            57  25  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          56  26  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           56  22  55  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   57  23  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                58  24  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               55  23  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 45  19  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                44  18  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 49  17  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               54  21  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               54  22  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            50  19  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  53  21  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   57  22  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              54  24  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 53  22  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  58  25  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          57  25  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  27  57  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/15