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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191945
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
145 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture was moving into the region today and this will
combine with an upper level storm system to give us several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain is possible with this
system and we could see some flash flooding this evening through
Thursday. For Friday and the weekend we will see a drying trend
with temperatures running at or a little below average. Our dry
weather will continue into the first of next week, but our high
temperatures will creep a little above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
All the pieces are coming together for some much needed, but
potentially heavy rain over the next 24 hours. At the surface and
aloft moisture is beginning to move in. We will see our moisture
continue to increase over the next 12 to 18 hours. Our
precipitable water (PW) value this morning on the balloon sounding
was 1.3 and the models have it moving to 1.5 to 1.7 (or higher) by
tonight (approaching record high values). To our north is an
upper level trough slowly dropping out of the Great Basin. Then to
our southwest is Tropical Depression 19-E which is trying get
organized over the Gulf of California. This system will have very
little time to strengthen and will quickly move into northern
Mexico. All the models merge the remnant circulation of the TD
into the Great Basin trough just south of the New Mexico Bootheel
early on Thursday. All the moisture combined with the trough
north and TD south will give us a good chance for heavy rain over
the next 24 to 36 hours. Rainfall totals of 1 inch will be likely
across the area with isolated 2 to 3 inch totals in a few spots.
This heavy rain could lead to some flash flooding, so a flash
flood watch is in place for this afternoon till around noon on
Thursday. We will see scattered areas of heavy rain this afternoon
and evening, then as the trough approaches from the west, we will
see more widespread rain activity tonight. Then as the TD phases
with Great Basin trough tomorrow morning we could see another
round of heavy rain move across the area, Thursday morning. The
GFS swings the trough through us between 18Z to 21Z, but the NAM
trails some of the trough back through at least 00Z on Friday.
Once the trough slides through, our threat for heavy rain will
diminish, but as long as the trough is to our west the threat will
continue. Right now the flash flood watch goes through noon, but
if the NAM is correct we may need to extend the watch, especially
east of the Rio Grande to later in the day on Thursday.

Once the trough swings by, things will begin to dry out. For
Friday, there will still be a slight chance for rain in area
mountains and eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties. On Saturday we
will see about the same for the rain chances, but on Sunday and
Monday we will be mainly dry. Our dry conditions look to continue
through the middle part of next week.

Looking at the temperatures, we will see above average highs
today (another factor helping getting the thunderstorms going)
then on Thursday as the main plume of moisture and rain move
across the area we will see our high temperatures running 5 to 10
degrees below average. Then as we dry out on Friday we will see
highs rebound quickly close to average. On Saturday a weak back
door cold front will move across the area (a sign that Fall is not
to far away) and that will cool Saturday and Sunday`s highs a few
degrees below average. But as westerly winds settle over the area
for the start of next week, we will see our highs creep back
above average for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
Expanding shower and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon into
tonight. VCTS to begin 20Z and continue through the evening. Brief
IFR conditions within thunderstorms. Skies SCT050-060CB BKN100-120
becoming BKN040CB OVC100 after 03Z. Winds 170-220 at 8-12KTS with
VRB25G35KT near TSRA. MVFR conditions after 09Z with BKN025-030.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mid-level tropical moisture has increased across the borderland
today as flow around the upper high to our east pushes moisture in
from the south. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, beginning near the AZ/NM border this afternoon and working
their way eastward over the El Paso and Sacramento Mountain areas
this evening. Flash flooding is the primary threat today and
tomorrow with widespread rain totals near 1" with a few locations
receiving as much as 2-3". Overnight showers are likely tonight into
Thursday. Friday into the weekend will be drier with only isolated
showers over mountain zones. Temperatures will be below normal on
Thursday and near normal into the weekend. Ventilation rates will be
good to very good this afternoon and fair to good on Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  77  63  86 /  80  70  30  20
Sierra Blanca           62  75  59  82 /  70  70  50  30
Las Cruces              63  74  59  86 /  80  70  30   0
Alamogordo              63  75  58  84 /  80  60  30  20
Cloudcroft              47  58  47  63 /  80  70  30  30
Truth or Consequences   61  73  58  84 /  80  50  20   0
Silver City             57  69  53  81 /  90  50  30  10
Deming                  61  73  57  85 /  80  60  20   0
Lordsburg               61  73  58  85 /  80  50  30   0
West El Paso Metro      66  75  63  85 /  80  70  30  10
Dell City               64  80  61  84 /  70  70  50  30
Fort Hancock            65  78  62  87 /  80  70  40  20
Loma Linda              61  72  58  80 /  80  70  40  20
Fabens                  65  77  62  86 /  80  70  30  20
Santa Teresa            65  75  62  85 /  80  70  30   0
White Sands HQ          64  75  59  85 /  80  70  30   0
Jornada Range           63  74  59  85 /  80  60  20   0
Hatch                   63  75  57  86 /  80  60  20   0
Columbus                62  74  59  86 /  80  60  20   0
Orogrande               65  76  61  85 /  80  70  30  20
Mayhill                 54  66  50  70 /  80  70  30  30
Mescalero               53  65  50  71 /  80  70  30  30
Timberon                52  64  50  71 /  80  70  30  30
Winston                 53  68  48  77 /  90  50  30  10
Hillsboro               59  71  54  82 /  90  50  20   0
Spaceport               60  73  57  84 /  80  50  20   0
Lake Roberts            51  68  47  79 /  90  50  30  10
Hurley                  57  70  53  81 /  80  50  20   0
Cliff                   57  73  52  85 /  80  50  30   0
Mule Creek              57  71  54  83 /  90  50  30   0
Faywood                 59  70  55  81 /  90  50  20   0
Animas                  61  74  59  84 /  80  60  30   0
Hachita                 59  73  56  84 /  80  60  30   0
Antelope Wells          59  71  57  82 /  80  60  30  20
Cloverdale              57  68  55  80 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through Thursday
     morning for NMZ409>417.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NMZ401>408.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NMZ401>408.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through Thursday
     morning for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice/Dennhardt