Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
157 FXUS64 KEPZ 122322 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - More widespread, and organized thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, starting in the higher terrain, and spreading north to south into the lowland deserts in the evening. These storms will generate periods moderate rainfall, strong wind gusts, and despite recent rainfall, more blowing dust. - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, day time temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for Sunday and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Increased thunderstorm activity will occur this weekend and the rest of the week as a deeper Monsoonal flow of moisture and instability over the region will fuel and enhance thunderstorm development through the week. For today, an active complex of storms in west central texas will push moist outflows westward into southern New Mexico and far west Texas, providing a trigger for thunderstorm formation this afternoon over the higher mountains, and continuing through to the lowlands in the late afternoon and evening hours. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts with blowing dust will be the main impacts from thunderstorms that develop today. Storm Prediction Center has placed much of region under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with strong outflow winds greater 60 mph and possible large hail as the main threats. For Sunday and Monday, increased moisture and weak disturbances aloft will help develop numerous to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region in the afternoon and night time hours both days. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with localized flooding, and strong wind gusts with patchy blowing dust will be the main impacts. Mountain zones will have higher rain amounts with recent wildfire burn scars being particularly sensitive rain, with flash flooding remaining a threat for those areas. Long Term Outlook: Abundant monsoonal atmospheric moisture and general instability from upper level disturbances will continue to help generate widespread thunderstorm activity across the region through the rest of the week. Periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding and strong wind gusts with blowing dusts will continue to be the main impacts from thunderstorms through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 An active evening expected across the region, with all terminals likely to see some shower and thunderstorm activity btween 00z and 05Z this evening. Generally VFR conditions, but with tempo MVFR, and possibly short-lived IFR conditions due to lowering CIGS, and lowering vsby due to either rain or BLDU. Also, expect erratic and gusty windy with convective activity in the 25 to 35 kt range. AFT 05-06Z most activity should be south of all terminals and tracking away into Mexico. With this, we will see calming winds, settling dust, and clearing skies, with VFR conditions through the night and through Sunday morning. We expect another round of shower and thunderstorm development around 18Z tomorrow over area mountains, to be followed by lowland storms aft 20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Moisture will return to the area today with min RH values in the mid to upper teens, except for locations west of the divide where min RH values will be a bit lower. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with strong gusty winds the main concern. We will enter a period of increased moisture while highs drop to near or below normal with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds throughout the period will top out around 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon outside of storms. Venting will range from poor to fair in the Sacramento Mountains with fair, east, ranging to excellent west toward the AZ border for this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 98 72 94 / 50 40 50 30 Sierra Blanca 66 89 64 84 / 40 40 40 50 Las Cruces 68 96 66 91 / 50 50 60 30 Alamogordo 67 94 64 89 / 20 50 40 40 Cloudcroft 49 71 48 66 / 20 70 40 70 Truth or Consequences 70 97 67 91 / 40 50 60 50 Silver City 62 92 60 85 / 50 70 80 80 Deming 70 100 68 94 / 50 60 80 40 Lordsburg 68 99 67 92 / 30 70 80 70 West El Paso Metro 73 96 72 90 / 50 40 50 30 Dell City 70 94 68 89 / 20 30 30 30 Fort Hancock 72 98 71 93 / 30 40 40 50 Loma Linda 65 89 63 84 / 30 40 40 40 Fabens 72 97 70 92 / 30 40 40 30 Santa Teresa 71 95 69 89 / 50 50 60 30 White Sands HQ 72 96 70 90 / 50 50 50 40 Jornada Range 67 96 66 89 / 50 50 60 40 Hatch 69 99 67 93 / 50 60 70 40 Columbus 72 99 70 92 / 40 60 80 30 Orogrande 68 92 66 87 / 30 40 40 40 Mayhill 55 80 54 76 / 20 70 40 70 Mescalero 54 83 53 77 / 20 70 40 70 Timberon 54 78 53 74 / 30 60 40 70 Winston 57 90 56 84 / 50 60 70 70 Hillsboro 63 95 62 89 / 50 60 70 60 Spaceport 66 95 64 89 / 40 50 60 40 Lake Roberts 57 93 56 86 / 50 80 80 80 Hurley 63 94 62 87 / 50 70 80 70 Cliff 65 99 64 93 / 40 70 70 80 Mule Creek 63 96 61 90 / 40 60 70 80 Faywood 64 93 63 87 / 50 70 80 70 Animas 68 99 66 92 / 20 70 70 60 Hachita 67 98 65 90 / 30 70 80 50 Antelope Wells 68 97 66 90 / 30 70 80 60 Cloverdale 65 93 63 87 / 30 70 70 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird