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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 260939 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 339 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west Texas today. As a result there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Several storms may produce damaging winds...hail and heavy rainfalls. West to southwest winds will bring warm dry weather with above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will cause cooler temperatures this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... East to southeast winds will advect low level moisture into southern New Mexico and west west Texas today and this will result in surface dewpoints around 45 to 50 across central and eastern zones by late afternoon. The combination of of warm temperatures and moisture will destabilize the air mass causing CAPE`s to rise to around 700 to 1400 J/kg by late afternoon. In addition water vapor content will be well above normal with precipitable water around .75 to 1 inch for central and eastern areas. Thus risk for deep convection will exist. Deep layer surface to 6 km shear will be over 40 kt as 40 kt mid level westerly winds overlay low level southeasterlies indicating possible updraft rotation and enhancement. Wet bulb zero heights will be near 9000 feet while DCAPE`s will be mostly above 1000 J/kg. These factors all suggest a few storms could produce strong damaging winds and/or large hail. In addition precipitable water water amounts suggest several storms may produce torrential rains especially if it includes a rotating updraft. Main question is extent of storm coverage due to uncertainties in effectiveness of any storm initiation mechanisms. The GFS model hints at weak embedded waves aloft in flow while NAM and especially ECMWF keep most convection suppressed under weak ridge aloft. Low level convergence focused on surface dry line trough will exist though it may be too far west of greater instability. Finally little convective inhibition expected so surface heating may initiate a few storms with subsequent outflows sustaining activity. All things considered will forecast mainly isolated storms this afternoon with mostly scattered activity this evening per mesoscale and convection allowing models. By Wednesday low level flow becomes west to southwest under westerly winds aloft band this scenario will advect warmer dry air mass into the CWA. Thus expect dry weather with above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. A passing upper wave and associated surface cyclogenesis to the northeast may also cause breezy to marginally windy conditions Friday though wind speeds should stay below advisory criteria most areas. Pacific cold front will move across the CWA later Friday causing cooler below normal temperatures Saturday. Models continue to have significant disagreements after Saturday with ECMWF having a colder wetter solution Sunday due to deeper upper trough moving into the area. Blended model solutions and ensembles suggest this may be an outlier so will have a mostly dry not-so-cold outlook Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...valid 26/12Z-27/12Z. A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms mainly from 21z-06z. Storms may produce hail up to an inch in diameter and wind gusts to 50 kt. Otherwise VFR conditions with skies SCT050 SCT-BKN100-200. Surface winds around 5-15KTS outside of thunderstorm areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west Texas today. As a result there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Several storms may produce damaging winds...hail and heavy rainfalls. West to southwest winds will bring warm dry weather with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday. Surface winds around 5 to 15 mph today and Wednesday and around 15 to 25 mph Thursday and Friday. Thus Red Flag conditions may exist over a few locations Thursday and Friday afternoons. A cold front will cause cooler below normal temperatures this weekend and early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 58 82 57 / 20 40 0 0 Sierra Blanca 72 51 78 50 / 20 40 0 0 Las Cruces 75 52 80 50 / 20 40 0 0 Alamogordo 72 52 81 51 / 20 40 0 0 Cloudcroft 59 41 63 41 / 20 40 0 0 Truth or Consequences 72 52 81 50 / 20 30 0 0 Silver City 67 47 75 47 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 75 48 81 45 / 20 30 0 0 Lordsburg 76 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 58 78 56 / 20 40 0 0 Dell City 71 50 82 49 / 20 40 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 56 86 53 / 20 40 0 0 Loma Linda 70 51 79 52 / 20 40 0 0 Fabens 78 56 83 54 / 20 40 0 0 Santa Teresa 76 53 80 52 / 20 40 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 55 81 55 / 20 40 0 0 Jornada Range 73 51 80 49 / 20 40 0 0 Hatch 75 50 82 48 / 20 30 0 0 Columbus 77 52 83 51 / 20 30 0 0 Orogrande 72 51 80 50 / 20 40 0 0 Mayhill 64 44 74 45 / 20 30 0 0 Mescalero 66 45 73 45 / 20 30 0 0 Timberon 61 42 70 42 / 20 40 0 0 Winston 67 40 77 42 / 20 30 0 0 Hillsboro 71 47 81 48 / 20 30 0 0 Spaceport 72 48 80 47 / 20 30 0 0 Lake Roberts 68 42 77 41 / 20 20 0 0 Hurley 69 45 79 44 / 0 20 0 0 Cliff 73 43 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 71 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 69 47 79 46 / 20 20 0 0 Animas 78 48 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 77 45 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 77 48 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 74 50 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 05 Rogash
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