Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 042147
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
347 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and rain chances will increase tonight through Wednesday.
And with the clouds and rain, we will see our afternoon high
temperatures dip a little below average through midweek. For the
end of the week, into the weekend, we will see lower rain chances
and higher afternoon temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
Currently, the satellite imagery shows a few towering cumulus and
cumulonimbus clouds mainly across areas west of the Rio Grande plus
the Sacramento mountains. Under these clouds are moderate to heavy
rain is falling indicated by the doppler radar. This is due to a
ridge of high pressure across the Southern Mississippi Valley and a
trough of low pressure across the Pacific West. Also some pieces of
energy moving up from the south is helping generate these storms.
For tonight, showers and thunderstorms will become scattered to
numerous with better upper level forcing. A deep plume of moisture
will be present with the dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
The climatological precipitable water value for this time of the
year is around 0.99. The precipitable water values are forecast to
be between 1.0 and 1.5 inches overnight. This could in turn lead to
heavy rainfall. Slow moving strong storms could bring continuous
heavy rain to areas where rain has already fallen over the past
couple of days that could result in flash flooding. There is
currently a flash flood watch for the Gila Region and the Sacramento
Mountains until 10 p.m. These areas should see the greatest amount
of rainfall. The low temperatures will be similar to that of this
morning`s low temperatures. For Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms
will continue mainly across areas along and east of the Rio Grande.
A few storms will be possible across the Gila Region. The storms by
then look to be more scattered across the aforementioned area
suggested by the CAMs. These storms can produce heavy rain and flash
flooding especially in areas where the soils have been saturated.
The high temperatures will be below the normal due to cloud cover
and rain-cooled air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
The long term forecast picks up on Tuesday evening with a
continued moist flow into the region. The upper level ridge to our
east and the upper level trough to our west will continue to pull
tropical moisture into the region. The moisture will help fuel
another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The moisture
plume will be situated a little east of the Rio Grande, so that
is were we will see the best chances for rain Tuesday night. All
the models indicate that we will see even deeper moisture arrive
on Wednesday so scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. There aren`t any clear
triggers for either Tuesday or Wednesday to kick off convection,
so we will have to way for heating and orographics to get
convection going and then see where the outflows will be able to
kick off new convection. With the higher moisture in the
atmosphere, the storms will be efficient and making rain, so a few
spots could see heavy rain with excessive runoff.

For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will build back to
the west and this will slow our stream of moisture. But there will
be plenty of moisture trapped under the ridge so we will continue
to see a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For
Saturday and Sunday both the ECMWF and GFS indicate that the upper
level ridge will center itself over New Mexico. But at the same
time we will still have moisture trapped under the ridge. It will
be interesting to see how these opposing weather ingredients play
out. For now, I have trimmed back on the pops some, for the
coming weekend.

Looking at temperatures, we will see our afternoon high
temperatures running several degrees below average for Wednesday
and Thursday with all the moisture and rain chances. Then for
Friday and into the weekend, as the upper level ridge builds into
the area, we will see our high temperatures creep higher and will
be a little above average by Sunday. Some lowland locations may
see high temperatures creep near the century mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG SCT-BKN080-250. There will be periods of SKC.
The winds will be from between the northwest and the southwest and
increase between 10 and 20kts with gust up to 25kts from 22Z to
05Z Tuesday. The winds will then subside thereafter to AOB 10kts.
There will be scattered TS across the Borderland through 09Z
Tuesday. VCTS was only mentioned in the TAFs for KTCS; however,
TS is possible at other sites as well. This was not mentioned in
the TAFs, but will amend if this occurs at any of the terminals.
There will be no reduction in the VIS across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today through Wednesday, monsoonal moisture will bring showers
and thunderstorms to our area, so due to this, there will be no fire
weather concerns for this period. Heavy rain associated with these
storms could produce flash flooding especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. The winds will be generally light except when
near thunderstorms. The temperatures will be in below the normal for
this time of the year. The min RHs is expected to be mostly above
30% across all of the zones with the ventilation rate being poor to
good. For the rest of the week, afternoon showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rain and flash will continue. Burn scar
areas and mountain regions will be prone to flooding. The min RHs by
then will decrease slightly with similar ventilation rate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  95  73  92 /  60  30  30  30
Sierra Blanca           69  90  68  86 /  50  50  30  40
Las Cruces              69  95  69  91 /  60  20  30  30
Alamogordo              69  92  68  90 /  60  40  30  30
Cloudcroft              51  69  52  68 /  60  60  40  50
Truth or Consequences   69  92  70  89 /  60  30  20  30
Silver City             62  85  63  81 /  60  30  30  40
Deming                  67  94  68  90 /  50  20  30  30
Lordsburg               68  91  68  88 /  40  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro      73  94  72  90 /  70  20  30  30
Dell City               70  95  69  92 /  50  40  30  30
Fort Hancock            72  96  70  92 /  60  40  30  30
Loma Linda              67  87  65  84 /  50  30  30  30
Fabens                  72  95  71  92 /  50  30  30  20
Santa Teresa            71  93  70  89 /  60  20  30  20
White Sands HQ          73  92  72  89 /  60  30  30  30
Jornada Range           69  93  68  89 /  60  20  30  30
Hatch                   69  95  69  91 /  60  20  30  30
Columbus                70  93  70  90 /  50  20  30  30
Orogrande               70  92  69  89 /  60  30  30  30
Mayhill                 58  79  57  79 /  60  60  40  50
Mescalero               56  78  56  78 /  40  60  30  50
Timberon                56  79  56  77 /  60  50  40  40
Winston                 61  84  62  81 /  60  40  20  50
Hillsboro               64  90  65  87 /  50  30  30  30
Spaceport               67  92  67  89 /  60  30  30  30
Lake Roberts            59  84  59  81 /  60  30  20  40
Hurley                  64  90  65  87 /  50  20  20  30
Cliff                   60  92  60  89 /  40  20  20  30
Mule Creek              62  87  63  84 /  40  30  20  40
Faywood                 64  89  65  86 /  50  30  30  30
Animas                  65  91  66  88 /  40  20  20  20
Hachita                 66  90  67  87 /  60  20  30  30
Antelope Wells          65  90  65  87 /  30  30  30  30
Cloverdale              62  86  63  84 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402-408-414>416.

TX...None.
&&

$$

Texeira/Brice


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