Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042147
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
347 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and rain chances will increase tonight through Wednesday.
And with the clouds and rain, we will see our afternoon high
temperatures dip a little below average through midweek. For the
end of the week, into the weekend, we will see lower rain chances
and higher afternoon temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
Currently, the satellite imagery shows a few towering cumulus and
cumulonimbus clouds mainly across areas west of the Rio Grande plus
the Sacramento mountains. Under these clouds are moderate to heavy
rain is falling indicated by the doppler radar. This is due to a
ridge of high pressure across the Southern Mississippi Valley and a
trough of low pressure across the Pacific West. Also some pieces of
energy moving up from the south is helping generate these storms.
For tonight, showers and thunderstorms will become scattered to
numerous with better upper level forcing. A deep plume of moisture
will be present with the dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
The climatological precipitable water value for this time of the
year is around 0.99. The precipitable water values are forecast to
be between 1.0 and 1.5 inches overnight. This could in turn lead to
heavy rainfall. Slow moving strong storms could bring continuous
heavy rain to areas where rain has already fallen over the past
couple of days that could result in flash flooding. There is
currently a flash flood watch for the Gila Region and the Sacramento
Mountains until 10 p.m. These areas should see the greatest amount
of rainfall. The low temperatures will be similar to that of this
morning`s low temperatures. For Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms
will continue mainly across areas along and east of the Rio Grande.
A few storms will be possible across the Gila Region. The storms by
then look to be more scattered across the aforementioned area
suggested by the CAMs. These storms can produce heavy rain and flash
flooding especially in areas where the soils have been saturated.
The high temperatures will be below the normal due to cloud cover
and rain-cooled air.
&&
.LONG TERM...
The long term forecast picks up on Tuesday evening with a
continued moist flow into the region. The upper level ridge to our
east and the upper level trough to our west will continue to pull
tropical moisture into the region. The moisture will help fuel
another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The moisture
plume will be situated a little east of the Rio Grande, so that
is were we will see the best chances for rain Tuesday night. All
the models indicate that we will see even deeper moisture arrive
on Wednesday so scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. There aren`t any clear
triggers for either Tuesday or Wednesday to kick off convection,
so we will have to way for heating and orographics to get
convection going and then see where the outflows will be able to
kick off new convection. With the higher moisture in the
atmosphere, the storms will be efficient and making rain, so a few
spots could see heavy rain with excessive runoff.
For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will build back to
the west and this will slow our stream of moisture. But there will
be plenty of moisture trapped under the ridge so we will continue
to see a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For
Saturday and Sunday both the ECMWF and GFS indicate that the upper
level ridge will center itself over New Mexico. But at the same
time we will still have moisture trapped under the ridge. It will
be interesting to see how these opposing weather ingredients play
out. For now, I have trimmed back on the pops some, for the
coming weekend.
Looking at temperatures, we will see our afternoon high
temperatures running several degrees below average for Wednesday
and Thursday with all the moisture and rain chances. Then for
Friday and into the weekend, as the upper level ridge builds into
the area, we will see our high temperatures creep higher and will
be a little above average by Sunday. Some lowland locations may
see high temperatures creep near the century mark once again.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG SCT-BKN080-250. There will be periods of SKC.
The winds will be from between the northwest and the southwest and
increase between 10 and 20kts with gust up to 25kts from 22Z to
05Z Tuesday. The winds will then subside thereafter to AOB 10kts.
There will be scattered TS across the Borderland through 09Z
Tuesday. VCTS was only mentioned in the TAFs for KTCS; however,
TS is possible at other sites as well. This was not mentioned in
the TAFs, but will amend if this occurs at any of the terminals.
There will be no reduction in the VIS across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
For today through Wednesday, monsoonal moisture will bring showers
and thunderstorms to our area, so due to this, there will be no fire
weather concerns for this period. Heavy rain associated with these
storms could produce flash flooding especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. The winds will be generally light except when
near thunderstorms. The temperatures will be in below the normal for
this time of the year. The min RHs is expected to be mostly above
30% across all of the zones with the ventilation rate being poor to
good. For the rest of the week, afternoon showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rain and flash will continue. Burn scar
areas and mountain regions will be prone to flooding. The min RHs by
then will decrease slightly with similar ventilation rate.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 74 95 73 92 / 60 30 30 30
Sierra Blanca 69 90 68 86 / 50 50 30 40
Las Cruces 69 95 69 91 / 60 20 30 30
Alamogordo 69 92 68 90 / 60 40 30 30
Cloudcroft 51 69 52 68 / 60 60 40 50
Truth or Consequences 69 92 70 89 / 60 30 20 30
Silver City 62 85 63 81 / 60 30 30 40
Deming 67 94 68 90 / 50 20 30 30
Lordsburg 68 91 68 88 / 40 20 20 20
West El Paso Metro 73 94 72 90 / 70 20 30 30
Dell City 70 95 69 92 / 50 40 30 30
Fort Hancock 72 96 70 92 / 60 40 30 30
Loma Linda 67 87 65 84 / 50 30 30 30
Fabens 72 95 71 92 / 50 30 30 20
Santa Teresa 71 93 70 89 / 60 20 30 20
White Sands HQ 73 92 72 89 / 60 30 30 30
Jornada Range 69 93 68 89 / 60 20 30 30
Hatch 69 95 69 91 / 60 20 30 30
Columbus 70 93 70 90 / 50 20 30 30
Orogrande 70 92 69 89 / 60 30 30 30
Mayhill 58 79 57 79 / 60 60 40 50
Mescalero 56 78 56 78 / 40 60 30 50
Timberon 56 79 56 77 / 60 50 40 40
Winston 61 84 62 81 / 60 40 20 50
Hillsboro 64 90 65 87 / 50 30 30 30
Spaceport 67 92 67 89 / 60 30 30 30
Lake Roberts 59 84 59 81 / 60 30 20 40
Hurley 64 90 65 87 / 50 20 20 30
Cliff 60 92 60 89 / 40 20 20 30
Mule Creek 62 87 63 84 / 40 30 20 40
Faywood 64 89 65 86 / 50 30 30 30
Animas 65 91 66 88 / 40 20 20 20
Hachita 66 90 67 87 / 60 20 30 30
Antelope Wells 65 90 65 87 / 30 30 30 30
Cloverdale 62 86 63 84 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402-408-414>416.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Texeira/Brice