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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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720 FXUS64 KEWX 270648 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A weakness in the 500mb ridge may afford the Hill Country, portions of the I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains a quick round of showers or storms Thursday afternoon/evening. A complex of storms over the Panhandle will slide southward under weak northerly flow around the eastern periphery of the 500mb High situated over SW Texas today. These storms may send an outflow boundary into our CWA, and during peak heating, we may see a few storms fire up along any boundary that moves into our neck of the woods. Most will remain dry, but a lucky few may get a quick round of relief. A Heat Advisory will be in effect once again through 7pm this evening for the I-35/I-37 Corridor and points eastward. Temperatures will top out in the upper 90s to near 100 today, making it the hottest day of this latest stretch of heat. Heat indices are expected to climb into the 105-112 range, so make sure you find a way to stay cool and hydrated if you must be outdoors this afternoon. On Friday, expect more of the same in the heat department, as temperatures soar into the upper 90s to near 100. Heat indices will again climb into the 105-112 range for the I-35/I-37 Corridor and points east and another Heat Advisory may be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The upper level ridge will remain centered just north of the area over the weekend maintaining an influence over the area. A subtle increase in moisture across the southern areas, south of U.S. 90, is indicated Sunday and could generate very isolated showers. However, most of the deeper moisture will be well south of the region with the tropical wave. The ridge is forecast to center northeast of the area during the early to middle part of next week. Continued warm and dry for most of the region, with the exception of a 10-20% chance of stray afternoon showers in the Coastal Plains. Will continue to monitor for heat advisories during this time. Only other thing of note, we are entering the Saharan dust season. The first round of light dust could arrive as early as Saturday, with more moderate and noticeable amounts arriving Sunday and Monday per dust aerosol optical thickness and vertical concentration forecasts from GMAO. Anticipate slightly more colorful sunrises and sunsets Sunday and Monday and hazy/milky appearance to the sky during the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR CIGS can be expected through the period at AUS and DRT, with a brief round of MVFR CIGS at SAT and SSF. Confidence is low in these MVFR ceilings however, so opted to bump about 2000 ft at SAT and SSF. Overall, winds should remain less than 10 kts, but some gusts up to 20kts are possible at DRT as early as late morning Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 101 78 99 80 / 20 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 77 98 79 / 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 77 98 79 / 10 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 99 77 98 79 / 20 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 81 103 82 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 77 98 78 / 20 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 99 77 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 76 97 77 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 77 94 79 / 20 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 78 98 80 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 78 99 80 / 10 10 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales- Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...76 Aviation...MMM