Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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214 FXUS64 KFWD 112013 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 313 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ /Today and Wednesday/ A decaying complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east/southeast. While this activity will gradually dissipate over the next few hours, a reinvigoration of showers and storms is expected along any outflow boundaries through the afternoon as surface heating results in further destabilization. Strong subsidence will keep much of the Metroplex and areas further west quiet, with additional development likely concentrated in northern parts of the Metroplex and eastern North Texas, as well as portions of Central Texas. Coverage should remain fairly scattered with this afternoon`s activity, and the severe threat will be low given marginal deep-layer shear. However, we can`t rule out an isolated strong or marginally severe storm capable of producing 1" hail and strong wind gusts. The best potential for an isolated severe storm will be across Central Texas. Since much of the afternoon convection will be diurnally-driven, showers and storms will wane near sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A brief lull is expected overnight, but with an upper low remaining overhead, additional scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late tonight and continue through Wednesday morning. While most of this activity will remain across Central Texas, latest CAMs are depicting some development further north (including the Metroplex). Storm chances will be lower as we head into Wednesday afternoon, but we can`t rule out a few additional diurnally-driven showers and storms for the remainder of the day. 10% PoPs were introduced for most of the area to reflect this potential. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today but still near-average by mid-June standards, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday through next Tuesday/ A relatively dry and seasonably warm pattern will persist across the region from the middle of this week through the early portion of next week. In the near-term, a compact upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico will expand in coverage across the Southern Plains. Subsidence associated with this high will produce mostly clear skies, an absence of precipitation, and most significantly, an increase in daytime temperatures as we reach the latter portion of the workweek. Many locations will see afternoon highs in the mid 90s by Friday, a marked increase from the cooler readings experienced early this week. Fortunately, daytime dewpoints should remain in the 60s for the most part, limiting any extremes in heat index values. The axis of the upper ridge will become elongated more west-east and shift just south of our area by the weekend. In addition, a distinct weakness in the ridge will emerge as a vigorous shortwave trough zips out of the Rockies across the Central Plains. Large-scale subsidence should diminish accordingly, but given abundant insolation, believe highs should still manage to reach the mid 90s in many areas both days. The weakness in the ridge should linger into the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, coupled with the evolution of a weak inverted trough extending from the western Gulf into Southeast Texas. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this trough will tick up across East/Southeast Texas by Monday afternoon. Some of this precipitation may build into our southeast counties during the afternoons, and this is reflected in low end chance PoPs depicted both days. Otherwise, daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s will remain the rule areawide through Tuesday - just a touch above seasonal norms for mid-June. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ A decaying complex of storms continues to move east and should dissipate over the next few hours across North Texas. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along any lingering outflow boundaries this afternoon, but this activity is expected to remain north and east of the terminals. Confidence is not particularly high with precisely where storms will develop, but we`ll be monitoring trends closely and will adjust the TAF as necessary. The potential for additional development of showers and storms across Central Texas warranted maintaining VCTS in the KACT TAF through the evening. We`ll have to monitor for another round of convection late tonight into Wednesday morning. At this time, most of the convection is expected to remain across Central Texas, but there are some indications of development further north (including D10). VCTS was introduced to the KACT TAF late tonight, but confidence was too low to include in the D10 TAFs at this time. MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely again Wednesday morning, and MVFR ceilings are now advertised in the KACT TAF. Held off on including a mention in the D10 TAFs for now given uncertainty is high. Otherwise, light E to SE winds near 5-7 knots or less will continue through the period, outside of any nearby thunderstorms. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 72 93 73 / 30 10 0 0 0 Waco 71 88 71 91 70 / 30 30 0 0 0 Paris 65 88 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 68 89 69 92 68 / 30 10 0 0 0 McKinney 68 89 68 92 68 / 20 10 0 0 0 Dallas 71 89 71 93 70 / 30 10 0 0 0 Terrell 68 89 68 91 68 / 20 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 72 89 71 93 70 / 30 20 0 0 0 Temple 71 89 71 92 71 / 30 30 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 89 70 94 70 / 30 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$