242
FXUS62 KGSP 291745
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM: Omega block in full force across the central and
eastern CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows trough over the upper
OH Valley and Northeast, with nearly cutoff embedded shortwave
spinning near Pittsburgh. Via this pattern, some degree of DPVA
will occur over our area this aftn and evening although the
shortwave will pass by to our north. Similar to yesterday, a
relatively shallow convective layer will be present beneath this
feature but still capped by subsidence inversion. Some
congested or towering cumulus thus may be seen across the CWA
thru evening, perhaps resulting in brief, isolated sprinkles,
but chance of measurable rainfall still looks near zero. Deep
mixing will result in low- end wind gusts at times.

A dry, reinforcing cold front will push across the area overnight
behind the departing shortwave, promoting a further decline in
dewpoints. Despite temps also trending a few degrees below normal,
the drying should make for a fog-free night once again, except
for some of the SW NC mountain valleys. Temps likewise end up a
little below normal for Thu. Another embedded shortwave will rotate
thru the trough late Thu but without enough moisture to justify
mentionable PoPs. Mixing won`t be as deep but a few cumulus again
will pop out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Wednesday: No changes to the going forecast to
round out the month of May as we remain under dry Northerly flow
aloft on Friday.  In the wake of vort energy rippling toward the
base of eastern seaboard trough axis, full sunshine is expected with
Piedmont maximums around 80 along with surface dwpts well below
climo.  Progressive upper ridge axis builds into and translates
across the region on Saturday and the llvl flow will come around to
south. This will aid in boosting maximums a couple of deg F above
Friday`s readings.  The atmosphere will also become weakly unstable
Saturday afternoon, and coincident with weak Ohio Valley s/wv energy
skirting by, there could be a few showers developing in the NC
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: Diurnally enhanced summer-like
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the latter half of
the upcoming weekend as a quasi-zonal wavy pattern develops atop the
SE CONUS.  In fact, there is little disernable change expected for
the daily sensible weather through the early part of next week as
tiggering mechanisms for daily thunderstorm chances will be driven
by a mix of synoptic scale s/wv and mesoscale features, along with
the typical terrain aided forcing here in the southern Appalachians.
Temperatures will be warming through the period, maximums rising to
the early June climo on Monday, but into the upper 80s by Wednesday.
Along with a daily increase in sfc dwpts will promote summertime
heat and humidity by the middle of next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. A few congested cumulus will be seen
this aftn and evening at the top of the deep mixed layer but rain
not expected. A few low-end gusts of 15-20 kt will occur; winds
should prevail from the NW quadrant although some variability
will occur at the SC sites. Reinforcing dry cold front may keep
some cu into the evening, but in general front should promote
further drying so no fog expected at daybreak Thu at any of the
TAF sites. Lighter, less gusty winds and fewer cumulus on Thu.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist with the drier weather
conditions through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...Wimberley