Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
205 FXUS66 KHNX 220815 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 112 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 CORRECTION && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue this weekend into early next week with a 25 to 50 percent probability of temperatures reaching the triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail during this time. 2. With the warming trend over the weekend and early next week, relative humidity values will drop which will lead to elevated grass fire concerns, especially in eastern Kern County. 3. A cooling trend will take place between Wednesday and Friday, however temperatures will remain above normal and dry conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model ensembles have a strong ridge of high pressure building across the Pacific Coast. This ridge has brought us and will continue to bring us above average temperatures well through the week. Latest probabilities have a 25 to 50 percent probability of triple digits for the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday. However, a cooldown is expected from Wednesday through Friday as the ridge slides away from our area. Model ensembles are in agreement that a trough will move close to the coast on Wednesday before quickly lifting on Thursday into the Pacific Northwest flattening the ridge and cooling us in the San Joaquin Valley. The ensembles are in agreement that the trough will quickly weaken as it moves towards the Pacific Northwest and dissipating by next Sunday. This pattern will keep us dry for the upcoming week. This warming trend and lower humidity values will lead to elevated grass fire concerns in Eastern Kern County through the week. One thing that would work against the potential of fires is that the winds will not be as strong in Eastern Kern County and will be terrain driven. The dry and warm conditions are expected to continue as the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both give a 40 to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures for the San Joaquin Valley and the Mojave Desert. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford