175
FXUS64 KHUN 261844
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
144 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A shortwave trough is currently moving through the TN Valley
today. This is expected to promote more unsettled weather compared
to the last few weeks. This shortwave, along with outstanding
boundaries from the MCS to our west, may enhance convection along
any boundary. With this unsettled weather, we are also looking at
a marginal risk of severe weather as well. Model soundings
indicate near dry adiabatic lapse rates by the afternoon once we
break the cap and mix out at the surface. CAPE values around 2000
J/kg should also help the air parcels to become more buoyant once
we get the forcing in place. PoPs are higher to the west as this
is where we have the best mosaic of parameters. This will likely
begin to take place after 18z, especially to the west. With weak
shear, we do not expect organized convection this afternoon. The
main threats from scattered strong to severe storms should mainly
be damaging winds and frequent lightning.

Besides that, high temperatures should reach the mid to upper-90s
closer to KHSV as there is less cloud cover. KMSL should reach
the low to mid-90s before the storms are forecast to move through.
There is some model disagreements with how the dewpoints will mix
throughout the day. However, moisture advection from the
southwest should help to moisten the atmosphere throughout the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convection should gradually wane with the loss of daytime heating
this evening. A mild night is in store with overnight lows only
dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fog may be possible if
there are breaks in the cloud cover, especially in locations that
see some rainfall this afternoon. However, it should be sparse in
coverage.

A relatively "cool" day is forecast on Thursday with afternoon
highs only expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is due
to lingering clouds in the morning and the potential for more
thunderstorms during peak heating hours. After several days in
the upper 90s, this will feel somewhat refreshing. With the
convection being diurnally driven, expect scattered coverage and
for storms to end by the evening.

The upper and mid level ridge begins to shift back east to end the
work week. Southwesterly flow at the sfc will advect in both a
warmer and more moisture rich airmass. As a result, afternoon
highs once again soar into the mid 90s on Friday and the upper 90s
on Saturday. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s,
which would push heat index values above 105 degrees during the
afternoon hours. However, the blended guidance may be a bit too
high with the dewpoints, especially if the area does not see any
appreciable rainfall over the next few days. This will be
something to keep on eye on in future forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through
the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and
the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal
thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get
each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions should persist through most of the day for both
KHSV and KMSL until around 20z. At 20z, storms are likely to fire
off, especially around KMSL through about 00-04z on Thursday.
Visibility will likely lower as storms near or on top on the
terminal. After 00z, most storms should begin to dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating, with returning VFR conditions likely
by this time.

For KHSV, VFR conditions are still forecast through the TAF
period. However, storms are likely to to be in the vicinity of the
terminal between 21z through 01z on Thursday. Storms should begin
to dissipate by 01-05z Thursday.

In between storms, winds should primarily be out of the SW at
about 5kts with some scattered clouds.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...Serre