405
FXUS64 KHUN 131657
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure centered over the Gulf will be the main influence
on the local pattern. As a result, clear skies this morning have
resulted in temperatures warming quickly into the low to mid 80s
as of 10am. By this afternoon, temperatures will top out in the
low to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to around
100F. Satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture stretching from
south TX northeastward into the Midwest. With no significant
forcing expected to move through the Tennessee Valley today,
thunderstorms will be diurnally driven. CAMs are not in much
agreement in how much storm coverage we will see today. However,
based on trends of what occurred yesterday, would not be surprised
to see a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
therefore kept the low to medium precip chances. No severe weather
is anticipated but a few storms could become strong with gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall the main concern. Any showers and
storms that form this afternoon and evening will quickly
dissipate after sunset resulting in a tranquil night. Overnight
lows will drop into the lower 70s under clear skies. Some fog
formation is possible early Monday morning, but based on recent
trends the last few days, any fog will be patchy and isolated to
sheltered valleys and along area rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Heat and humidity continues to build heading into the new
workweek as the high pressure over the Gulf strengthens. With
temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, heat index values rise into the 100-108F range. The highest
values will be along and west of I-65. If the trends continue a
heat advisory may be needed for some or all of the local forecast
area. As it typical this time of year, there are low to medium
chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Not expecting severe storms,
but any stronger thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall. Storms will end after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating. However, not much relief from
the heat overnight is expected with lows dipping only into the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Without any significant synoptic features to disrupt our current
pattern, the forecast will remain largely unchanged as we head into
the long term forecast. For a majority of the forecast period we will
again find ourself sandwiched between mid level troughing to our
north and ridging to our south. At the surface this will amount to
hot and humid conditions with continued daily chances for
afternoon thunderstorms. While the weather conditions listed above
have become quite familiar for residents of the TN Valley this
summer, their inherent risk still warrants discussing. Starting
with heat and humidity, high pressure to our SE will allow high
dew points in the mid 70s to remain situated. This paired with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day will easily push
apparent temperatures above 100 degrees for most locations. We
will be keeping a close on on Wednesday and Thursday should a Heat
Advisory be needed. Regardless of any heat products, individuals
should continue to practice proper heat and sun safety each day.

While we will retain a low to medium (30-60%) chance of afternoon
shower and thunderstorms each day, the good news is that we are not
forecasting a widespread severe risk at all in the long term
forecast. Rather, diurnal heating will allow for significant CAPE
each afternoon with outflow boundaries being a primary forcing
mechanism for storms. Storms that do fire up will be capable so gusty
outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. For those with
outdoor activities next week make sure to remain weather aware and
remember when thunder roars go indoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period as afternoon.
After Cu field has remained mainly away from the terminals, but
have added a TEMPO group for the potential for some afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms. After sunset chances decrease and VFR
conditions return.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH