Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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733 FXUS64 KHUN 262309 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Storms should begin to dissipate shortly after sunset, as we lose daytime heating. Some forcing is possible along convergence boundaries, though without daytime heating, it`ll be tough for storms to ignite. The marginal risk of severe weather from the afternoon should also subside as storms become less organized. However, an isolated strong storm, capable of producing gusty winds, is possible. Some lingering clouds are possible, but skies should be mostly clear. This should help temperatures to drop throughout the night, into the mid-70s across much of the area. Winds should also relax and become more light and variable. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the duration of the short term forecast. Mid level ridging will build in from the west through the short term reinforcing the presence of mid level dry air. At the surface, the return of southerly flow will advect in higher dew points from the Gulf. With a warm moist environment in place, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. With no appreciable shear present, no organized severe weather is expected. Rather, storms will likely mirror typical pop up summer convection with some storms having a low chance of becoming strong to severe. That being said, any storms that do form will pose a threat for damaging winds and frequent lightning each afternoon. Given the scattered coverage of storms expected, those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to closely monitor weather condition. Aside from rain and storm chances, heat will unfortunately remain a threat through the weekend as well. Both temperatures and dew points will gradually increase through the duration of the short term forecast yielding to a gradual increase in heat index values. The current forecast includes heat index values on Saturday afternoon exceeding heat advisory criteria (105F+) west of I-65. If current forecast trends continue, a heat advisory will likely be needed for at least a portion of the CWA for Saturday and potentially Sunday. Regardless of the exact temperatures or presence of a heat advisory, it is going to be hot for everyone. Make sure to practice proper sun and heat safety through the weekend especially for those partaking in outdoor activities. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Vicinity showers are forecast to continue at KMSL and KHSV tonight with VFR conditions prevailing. However, low chances of LIFR to IFR conditions are possible overnight into Thursday morning during periods of showers due to lowered clouds and decreased visibilities. VFR conditions are forecast to return Thursday afternoon to KMSL with MVFR conditions lingering at KHSV. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Serre SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...HC