297
FXUS63 KICT 220821
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through
  tonight.

- Below average temperatures for the upcoming week.

- Potential for increasing rain chances late week and next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

PRECIPITATION...

TODAY--EARLY MONDAY...An approaching potent shortwave trough in
concert with a strong/deep frontal zone will support continued
widespread areas of rain/storms across the region through about
midday. While instability is lacking, strong forcing amidst high
precipitable waters will support areas of heavy rainfall, and
possibly localized minor flooding of typical flood-prone areas.
Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this
afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated
lift decreases. The available forcing and associated hit-or-miss
precipitation chances will gradually focus across mainly southeast
Kansas by late this afternoon through tonight and early Monday.

TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...Shortwave energy diving south-southeast
across Mid-America may support hit-or-miss mainly light
precipitation. Thinking rainfall amounts will remain light given
marginal precipitable waters.

LATE WEEK--NEXT WEEKEND...The ECMWF and Canadian deterministic and
ensemble consensus continues to support the potential for increasing
meaningful precipitation over mainly eastern Kansas, as a stalled
mid-level trough over the region interacts with dissipating tropical
energy/moisture approaching from the southeast. The deterministic
GFS and ensemble mean still is not supporting this scenario, and the
Canadian solution has backed off some, so for now will only carry 20-
30 PoPs until model agreement increases.

TEMPERATURES...

TODAY--NEXT WEEK...Cooler Canadian air oozing south combined with
precipitation and mostly cloudy skies will support well below
average temperatures today, ranging from the 50s-60s to near 80
degrees, warmest over far southeast Kansas. Below average
temperatures will prevail through the week, with forecast highs
mostly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Several impacts to aviation interests are expected over the next
24 hours.

A slug of widespread showers and storms is currently working
across the eastern half of Kansas early this morning with
pockets of heavy rainfall bringing visibility down to a mile at
times. Despite this activity moving eastward early this morning,
additional thunderstorm development is occurring across portions
of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles which will
likely enter the region later morning into the early afternoon
hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will slowly come to
an end from northwest to southeast. Conditions should begin to
improve around KRSL, KGBD, and KSLN by around 21Z this
afternoon, and improving conditions in and around KCNU may not
occur until after 06Z late tonight.

Meanwhile, a cold front is pushing southeastward across the
region, and is already along a KGBD-KSLN line as of 06Z early
this morning. Winds are generally light and variable south of
the front, but should become more uniform out of the north after
frontal passage with sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots and
gusts up to 25 knots possible at times. Also, much lower
ceilings are expected across the area, especially across areas
experiencing showers and storms. Cigs could drop to IFR levels
at times, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike
during the morning and early afternoon hours today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell today.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for upper 50s or low 60s.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...ADK