445
FXUS63 KICT 251732
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected today with heat indices between 105
  and 110 expected during the afternoon hours.

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms possible this afternoon
  through early Wednesday morning.

- Not as hot Wednesday & Thursday with low rain chances along
  I-70 each night.

- Hot conditions return on Friday, with more widespread rain
  chances possible Friday evening through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this morning shows a
stout mid to upper ridge across southern plains and Desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, despite an extreme amount of inhibition, a
cluster of showers and storms across portions of western and central
Kansas continues ahead of a subtle vort-max embedded in within
modest upper flow. There`s low confidence about how long this
activity will continues slowly southward considering this activity
has already overperformed expectations. The progression of this
activity will likely be a key factor in storm chances this afternoon
and evening, and perhaps the temperature forecast for this afternoon
as well.

That being said, expect much of the area to be hot and humid today.
Afternoon temperatures are most likely going to rise into the upper
90s to lower 100s with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the low
70s. As a result, heat indices between 105 and 110 are expected this
afternoon and early evening provided no precipitation occurs.
Meanwhile, a frontal boundary and the associated subtle upper trough
embedded in northwest flow should be enough to trigger at least
isolated storms late this afternoon/early this evening across
northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Some of 00Z CAMs suggest
the ongoing activity this morning will lead behind a remnant
boundary or MCV near the Oklahoma/Kansas border, but this aspect
of the forecast has low confidence so lower PoPs (20-30%) were
kept across southern Kansas. Similarly, other short term models
are suggesting a thermal surface trough across central and
western Kansas will be enough to trigger some isolated
convection. Again, it`s hard to justify any PoPs above 30% given
the uncertainty across central Kansas. Forecast soundings
indicate copious amounts of DCAPE, and as a result, strong to
marginally severe wind gusts are going to be possible with any
storms that manage to develop across the area during the
afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, an organized MCS is
expected to develop across northeast Nebraska and progress
south-southeastward. As this complex of storms pushes into far
eastern Kansas/Missouri overnight tonight, there is some
uncertainty about the westward extent. Therefore, it`s difficult
to keep higher than 40% PoPs east of the Flint Hills. By
Wednesday morning, this complex of storms is expected to exit
the region.

Temperatures are expected to be closer to average for this time of
year behind this frontal passage as weak to modest zonal flow
returns to the region. Subtle perturbations should allow for storm
development across the High Plains Wednesday and Thursday; however,
confidence is low if this activity can make it east enough to impact
portions of central and south-central Kansas. Higher chances will
generally remain along and north of the I-70 corridor. A stronger
frontal boundary will approach the region on Friday, and another day
of hot and humid conditions is expected south of the front. This
frontal boundary will also increase storm chances from Friday
evening through Saturday night. However, there are lots of details
to work out between now and then, and the forecast for the beginning
of the weekend is subject to change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the first several hours of this TAF
period. The main issue between 22Z and 07Z tonight will be the
areal coverage of the shower and thunderstorm activity. At this
time, it appears KSLN and KCNU will be the most likely
terminals to get the thunderstorm activity. KHUT and KICT have
lower chances this evening. Very heavy rain and brief gusty
winds are the most likely issue and may bring VSBYs down into
the IFR level for periods of time. Confidence on timing is not
very good. By 07Z, the thunderstorm activity will diminish and
VFR conditions will return to the region for the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Record highs for Today:

          Today (Record) | Today`s Highs

Wichita     107 (1911)         101
Salina      114 (1911)         102
Chanute     104 (1933)          98
Russell     108 (2012)         102

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ELM
CLIMATE...ELM