Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261946
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2468

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy extending from the
western Great Lakes into northwest KS with a cold front extending
from eastern Nebraska into far western KS.

Cold front will continue to push south tonight but not expecting
much if anything in the way of precip due to airmass being so dry.
Airmass to follow behind the front isn`t expected to be very cold,
with overnight lows a degree or two above where they were last
night. While low lying areas may see some patchy frost, don`t
think it will be as widespread as early this morning.

After this impulse pushes off to the southeast, we will finally
get into a more prolonged warming spring-like pattern. This will
be due to a slow moving closed low coming on shore tonight over
northern CA and approaching the northern Great Basin by Sat
night. This will push the surface high east as lee troughing
increasing each day. The downside is that south winds will get
cranked up for Sun, especially west of I-135 with sustained 30mph
speeds a good bet. ECMWF and GFS both agree on taking a lead
impulse out of the Rockies and into the central Plains Sat night
which may result in some elevated activity over mainly central KS.
Elevated instability doesn`t look that great, so not expecting
severe storms with this activity.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2468

By 12z Mon, upper energy will still be lingering over the Great
Basin as it becomes a bit less organized. Meanwhile, a more
robust wave will dive down the backside of the trough and will be
approaching the desert southwest for Tue. This pattern will keep
return flow over the Plains to start the work week with very
strong south winds expected during the day Mon.

With an upper impulse digging over the southwest CONUS through
Wed, we will maintain southwest flow aloft over the southern
Plains for a few days. This will provide a more classic spring
severe weather setup to the southern Plains for Mon-Wed, with Tue
and Wed looking like severe wx being more widespread. While a few
storms look possible along the dryline Mon, still quite a bit of
capping not too far east of the dryline due to warmer mid level
temps. However, less capping Tue and Wed should allow more
widespread activity.

Tough to talk about specifics this far out, but there does seem to
be some model agreement in a synoptic front slowly moving south
into northern KS Tue with a triple point somewhere between I-135
and Highway 283, with a dryline south through OK. With upper flow
staying out of sw, dryline should move just a little east for Wed
and will still be a factor for KS and OK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2468

VFR conditions currently dominate the region this afternoon. The
only area that does not have VFR conditions at the moment is far
Southeast Kansas near CFV and PPF. These terminals are expected to
clear this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to reign through
the remainder of the TAF period. The only issue tonight appears
to be some LLWS which will develop for a few hours over parts
South Central and Southeast Kansas. This will mainly affect HUT,
ICT and CNU terminals. This LLWS is expected to abate before
sunrise Friday morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2468

Fire danger concerns will pick back up for the Sun-Tue time frame.

Relatively light winds are expected for both Fri and Sat as a
surface high gradually slides east. South and southeast winds will
be on the increase for Sun and especially Mon. For Sun, sustained
speeds around 30 mph, with higher gusts, will be common for areas
west of I-135. For Mon, these higher speeds will overspread the
entire area. This will result in very high fire danger for most
of the area for both Sun and especially Mon. Fire danger maybe
mitigated a bit by grasses greening up, due to recent rains, and
strong south winds increasing the low level moisture across the
entire area. We are looking at afternoon RH values both Sun and
Mon in the 35% to 45% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  74  45  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      40  74  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          39  73  44  70 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        41  73  45  71 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   42  73  45  74 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         36  76  41  72 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      37  75  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          38  75  42  72 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       38  74  42  71 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     44  72  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         42  71  44  69 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            41  71  44  69 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    43  72  45  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



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