274
FXUS61 KILN 120539
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
139 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will bring above normal temperatures to the
region for the next week. A system will bring a chance for
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday with additional
thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High clouds spilling in from the west/northwest are expected to
transit the region relatively early, with just a few remnants
found in northern KY and eastern CWA after midnight and a
continued clearing trend through daybreak.

Winds will be light and river valley fog should develop with
dewpoint depressions at KLUK expected to be 1-2 degrees in the
predawn hours. Continued the mention of patchy dense fog in
river valleys and did not make any changes to low temperatures
in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The warming trend will continue on Wednesday with above normal
temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Lows Wednesday night
will drop down into the middle 50s to lower 60s. A weak system
will bring the potential for a few sprinkles near and north of
Interstate 70 Wednesday night. Moisture is limited with this
system and therefore limited any precipitation mention to
sprinkles.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some mid level troughing will develop across the Great Lakes,
southeast Canada, and New England during the Thursday into Friday
timeframe. This will push a weak cold front southeast through our
region. Thursday should remain dry as the cold front will not make
in roads until Thursday night. Thus, it will be warmer and a little
more humid than Wednesday. Highs will range from the mid to upper
80s. For Thursday night into Friday, as the cold front pushes
through, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chance will be across our northwest Thursday night. There could be a
strong storm or two early on before instability wanes overnight in
this location. Pcpn threat will end by Friday evening everywhere,
allowing drier and a little cooler air to move back into our region.
After lows in the 60s, highs on Friday will be in the mid 80s. Lows
Friday night will drop into the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather pattern on Saturday.
Under mostly sunny skies, highs will range from the lower to mid 80s.
Mostly clear skies Saturday night will allow temperatures to drop
into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

The surface high will have moved east by Sunday. As has been
advertised, an upper level ridge is forecast to build northward into
the Ohio Valley. There will be an increase in humidity with
developing low level southerly flow. And with rising mid level
heights and rising low level temperatures, it will become hot. Highs
will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat indices
peaking into the mid 90s along and south of the Ohio River.

Monday is looking like the hottest day as the upper level high
remains in place. After lows in the lower 70s, highs will warm into
the mid 90s. These temperatures, combined with humidity, will push
heat indices into the 100 to 105 degree range. Also, can not rule
out a pop up shower/storm in the afternoon/evening due to diurnal
instability.

Uncertainty begins to creep into the extended as we head into mid
week next week as models differ as to whether the upper level high
will hold sway or will it break down some, allowing weak
disturbances to rotate around its periphery through the Ohio Valley.
As such, have temperatures a little lower by Tuesday, but it will
still be hot and humid along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes from the 00Z TAFs. Haven`t seen the onset on BR
at LUK yet so delayed this by a few hours. Otherwise, continue
to see a mixture of high-level clouds overnight across the area
with prevailing VFR restrictions through the rest of the period.

Winds through the period will be light and variable, with a
predominant south or southwesterly direction Wednesday afternoon
around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...McGinnis