563
FXUS61 KILN 261446
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1046 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again through today as a
cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a
drier airmass will return for Thursday and Friday. Before warm
and humid air returns again by Saturday, along with the chance
for additional rounds of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCV pushing through central OH late this morning before exiting
our fa. Shower activity becoming less extensive with the
eastward progression of this MCV. Only thunder coverage is now
limited to portions of west-central OH, up near Mercer/Auglaize
County.

There will be a lull in convective activity early this
afternoon, with coverage in shower/storms expected to increase
from the west later in the afternoon hours with an approaching
cold front. There will be an opportunity for some atmospheric
recovery in our southeastern counties, with visible satellite
already showing low level clouds clearing out in some of our
northern KY counties. There is still some isolated shower
development however in portions of KY ahead of the front, which
may hinder improvement this afternoon as this translates
eastward. Some CAMs and the SPC mesoanalysis still suggests
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE building in this afternoon SE of
I-71, whereas other hi-res models such as the HRRR are pretty
meager with instability recovery (~200 J/kg). In general, it
does seem that instability will be more limited across our CWA,
which will lower the overall severe risk. Still mentioning the
potential for isolated flooding given that PWATs are ~150% of
normal values. However, flooding will likely require training
storms ahead of the frontal boundary given that precip will
become more progressive once this front starts moving through.
Antecedent dry soils will also help limit hydro concerns to a
more isolated threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Drier air and cooler temps filter in from the N tonight,
allowing for temps to dip into the lower/mid 60s by daybreak
Thursday. Temps will rebound into the lower/mid 80s amidst
plentiful sunshine, light northerly sfc flow, and a few
afternoon-driven Cu. Dewpoints will dip into the upper 50s
for many near/N of the OH Rvr Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overnight lows into Friday might be some of the coolest we`ve seen
all week, falling to the upper 50s with patchy cloud cover. However,
the next disturbance is on the horizon as a shortwave moves through
the larger flow. Friday daytime hours we`ll see an increase in
mid/upper level cloud cover as warm, moist air is pumped back into
the region behind the lifting warm front and highs will reach the
upper 80s again.

The parent shortwave continues to move along the CONUS/Canadian
border and slowly open up into a wave. The associated surface
disturbance, while rather broad, is loosely organized and looks to
pass along the northern Great Lakes Saturday, dragging a cold front
in its wake. Given that the ILN CWA will still be in the open warm
sector during this time, Saturday will likely be quite muggy with
highs in the 90s and dew points in the upper 70s. Additionally,
there is decent consensus that PWATs will be above 2 inches (nearly
three sigmas above normal) and with the chance for showers in the
muggy airmass ahead of the cold front, do have some concerns that any
storms that train may produce localized flooding.

Right now, it looks as though the cold front will be pulled through
the region sometime Saturday into Sunday hours. Bit too early to get
hung up on severe threat, however, should the front move through
while there is still enough daytime instability present (combined
with marginal mid-level forcing) we may end up with a few storms
that are able to produce some stronger winds.

After the front moves through, temperatures on Sunday and Monday
reach upper 70s (north) to mid 80s (south) with a decline in muggy
conditions thanks to some northwesterly flow. The next disturbance
looks to move into the region mid-week as a broad 500H trough digs
into northern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An initial cluster of SHRA/TSRA has developed and will drift
into the Tri-State after 12z, generally tracking to the ENE
through the morning into early afternoon, potentially impacting
each of the local sites to some degree, especially between about
14z-18z. This may be followed by a several hour break mid
afternoon, especially for KCVG/KLUK/KILN where it will clear out
faster behind this initial activity. However, additional
widespread SHRA/TSRA will pivot back in from the N between about
22z-01z, likely impacting each terminal for at least an hour or
two with some reduced VSBYs and TSRA. Did not yet have
confidence to add significantly reduced VSBYs into the fcst for
the evening, but certainly some MVFR/IFR VSBYs are to be
expected in the heaviest activity. Could also see some brief
MVFR CIGs as well.

A drying trend should evolve from NW to SE after about 01z,
particularly for the local TAF sites. Light SW winds early in
the period will increase to about 12-15kts, with gusts to around
20kts, during the afternoon before abruptly shifting to out of
the N with the passage of the front during that 22z-01z time
frame. Light northerly winds at 5-7kts are expected for the
final part of the TAF period. Skies should scatter out a bit
late in the period, with borderline FEW/SCT MVFR/VFR clouds and
some patchy BR and MVFR VSBYs toward daybreak Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC