Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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935 FXUS62 KJAX 251720 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 120 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The pattern will continue through the night with region between high to the east and trough to the north northwest. Most convection will dissipate this evening with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the middle 70s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and a trough to the north northwest Wednesday through Thursday. With this pattern, the low level flow will continue form the southwest. Convection will initiate during the late morning hours, likely first on the Gulf sea breeze, then move inland during the afternoon hours. The east coast sea breeze will also activate during the afternoon hours, and move inland. The breezes will meet over the east central portion of the area, where the greatest chances for precipitation is expected. Much of the convection which does develop will diminish during the evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will continue above normal through Thursday. For Thursday night through Friday, the high will start to build more toward the east northeast, with the trough remaining to the northwest. With this change in pattern the low level flow will come more from the south. Friday will be another stormy day, with sea breeze interactions enhancing coverage. Temperatures will continue above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Fairly persistent troughing will remain to the north northwest this period. High pressure will be centered to the east early this period, then to the east Sunday through Tuesday. The movement of the high will result in changes in the low level flow, with some affect on the overall movement of storms and initial development zones. In general it will be a stormy period, with much of the convection during the day time hours. Temperatures will continue above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA have already developed across portions of NE FL...expecting coverage to increase near inland TAF sites during the 19z-23z period with sea breeze boundaries coming together in the central portion of FL peninsula. Activity will likely continue well after 00z while gradually decreasing in coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Fairly persistent troughing will be north northwest of the area through the upcoming weekend. High pressure ridge will be east of the region through Wednesday, then to the east southeast into Thursday. The high will be located to the northeast Friday through the weekend. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, low Wednesday for NE FL. Low through Wednesday for SE GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 98 74 94 / 10 50 20 60 SSI 78 92 77 94 / 20 40 20 50 JAX 73 96 74 95 / 40 70 20 60 SGJ 76 93 76 94 / 20 70 30 60 GNV 74 94 73 92 / 30 90 20 60 OCF 75 93 76 92 / 30 90 30 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030- 031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232- 236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162- 163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$