Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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232 FXUS62 KJAX 240609 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 209 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 210 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 17Z. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop along the inland moving Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes after 18Z, with coverage and intensity expected to increase near the northeast FL terminals through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Confidence was high enough to maintain PROB30 groups at the Duval County terminals and GNV, mainly after 20Z through around 02Z Tuesday. Stronger storms at these terminals will be capable of producing briefly wind gusts of around 30 knots and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours. Vicinity coverage was maintained at SSI, and we removed the PROB30 group from SGJ, as confidence in impacts was only high enough for vicinity coverage from the mid-morning through early evening hours. Southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots overnight at the terminals, except below 5 knots at GNV and VQQ. Surface winds will veer to west-southwesterly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will progress slowly inland on Monday afternoon, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly and increasing to 10-15 knots at SGJ after 19Z, with southerly winds forecast at SSI. The sea breeze should reach CRG and JAX after 20Z as convection begins to develop. Following evening convection, south- southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots are expected at the regional terminals after 03Z Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Isolated convection at about 8 pm continues to diminish this evening and will end all the precip in the forecast by about 10 pm, as lingering instability continues around the SuwanNee Valley area and where outflows converged. Localized rainfall amounts recently around Live Oak were near 4 inches. Not much in terms of thunderstorm wind gusts recorded at stations this afternoon and evening with highest values around 35-40 mph. Rest of tonight, the low level flow is primarily be southwest to south and will slowly veer around by sunrise. Partly cloudy skies will decrease in coverage, though there may be a small area of low stratus over the Suwannee Valley area late tonight and early Monday morning. Could see a few showers or a storm develop late tonight toward Marion county. Warm overnight lows expected in the lower to mid 70s given the moist low levels and winds of about 5-10 mph. Some stronger southerly winds anticipated at least for first part of tonight along the coast at 10-15 mph at times. Little change for Monday`s forecast with scattered showers and storms in the aftn. Best chances expected over northeast FL. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are indicated. Heat indices will be near advisory levels Monday across northeast FL. Climate-wise, we tied the record high at JAX today, and we may see record warm minimum temps next 24 hours. On Monday, record high possible at Craig Airport, with current record at 98 deg from 2019. For the marine forecast, little overall change rest of tonight with small craft exercise caution headline in effect. Only slight wind and sea changes anticipated for this update. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A weakening frontal boundary approaches the area on Monday, with a south to southwesterly flow persisting out ahead of if it as the Bermuda high will be centered almost due east of the First Coast. The flow should be strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned in the vicinity of I-95 and towards the coastline. The focus for sea breeze convection will be generally along this area, although the presence of the diffuse boundary as well as perhaps some outflow from earlier convection from the northwest could also play factor, and therefore possibly a source of "secondary" chances over more inland southeast GA. The aforementioned boundary essentially stalls and weakens/becomes diffuse just north of southeast GA counties Monday Night and into Tuesday. Guidance is suggesting some lingering drier air bleeding into areas generally from about Waycross northward tomorrow, with PWATs in the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range (below climo). Therefore, convective chances look to be lower in these areas and mainly focused approaching I-10 and southward. The southwesterly flow regime will result in temperatures above average for both Monday and Tuesday: in the mid to upper 90s, almost all the way to the immediate coastline. The majority of the area is expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria, though some spots could see heat indices flirting with that threshold at times, especially around the St. Johns River to the coast and Suwannee Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The pattern remains pretty stagnant into Wednesday with south to southwest flow and diurnal convection along the sea breeze collision area inland. Another frontal boundary approaches Thursday and similarly stalls out and becomes diffuse to our north, though will bring increased layer moisture ahead of it which should essentially last into Friday and the start of the weekend. High pressure behind the front will start to build more to our northeast by Friday and into the weekend, which should return more of a weaker flow out of the east to southeast and therefore a pretty typical summer sea breeze type of pattern. Temps start above average for this period, but gradually trend more towards normal as the synoptic flow becomes more broad and weaker compared to earlier in the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 South-southeasterly winds develop this afternoon over the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Winds will shift to south- southwesterly and will surge to Caution levels throughout our local waters this evening outside of ongoing thunderstorm activity. West-southwesterly winds will prevail for the rest of the week as another trough settles over the southeastern states, with scattered thunderstorm chances prevailing each afternoon and evening as activity moves eastward across our local waters. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches. The easterly swell will begin to fade on Monday, dropping the risk to low for the southeast GA beaches, while onshore winds during the afternoon keep a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 75 98 74 / 30 20 40 20 SSI 95 79 93 79 / 30 30 30 30 JAX 97 75 96 75 / 40 30 50 30 SGJ 96 77 94 76 / 50 30 50 40 GNV 95 74 95 73 / 60 20 70 30 OCF 94 75 94 75 / 70 20 70 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$