Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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611 FXUS64 KLCH 101756 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows a cool front located roughly along the I-20 corridor from nern TX to cntl MS at this time while high pressure lingers over the nrn Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place over the ern 1/2 of the country, emanating from a cutoff low over nrn ME...an initial shortwave is noted dropping through the Ozarks this morning while another is noted further upstream in the Plains. mid/upper-level ridging centered roughly overhead at the moment. Satellite imagery shows patchy thick cirrus from convection near the front beginning to impact the area, while sfc obs don`t show a lot of lower cloud cover around the area. Local 88Ds show just scattered nocturnal showers over the coastal waters, although coverage is slowly increasing. After a few days of drying out, rain chances return to the area today as the Ozarks disturbance continues swd, taking the sfc front with it into the forecast area. With forecast soundings still indicating improving moisture (mean RH values to 70 percent and PWAT values to 1.9 inches which is roughly the 90th percentile per SPC climo), expect scattered showers/storms to gradually develop across the area, initially near the coast (nocturnal activity moving inland) and across the nrn extremes (combo of disturbance and frontal influences) before filling in the middle. This activity will linger past sunset before dissipating with loss of heating. Tuesday appears to be a day with more of a widely scattered convection potential across the area as the front stalls over the coastal waters and potentially begins to lift back nwd towards the coast. Meanwhile, another disturbance aloft sweeps into the region. Wednesday`s looking like more of the same, although the next shortwave in the series appears to keep most of its better lift out west of the forecast area...thus just slim POPs are in the forecast for the end of the short term. Temperatures are progged to be rather seasonal throughout the short term period. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Forecast guidance continues to trend drier Thursday and Friday as there is better agreement on drier air advecting into the region around the eastern periphery of a strong ridge over the southwestern U.S. This should keep convection at bay along whatever is left of the quasistationary frontal boundary just off the coast. This drier air aloft will likely mix down to the surface both Thursday and Friday afternoons bringing dewpoints down into the low to mid 60s. This will certainly be beneficial from an apparent temperature standpoint, but with RH values falling into the 30s, a low end risk for grass/marsh fires could develop. The area has been wet enough recently that there shouldn`t be any significant fire risk from other fuels. The lower dewpoints and mostly clear skies should allow low temps to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday morning Surface winds will turn back out of the south late Saturday afternoon in advance of a closely watched tropical disturbance moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. Latest guidance depicts this disturbance tracking further West into the northwestern or northern gulf and trended PoPs upward Sunday to account for this, but there has been a lot of windshield wipering (back and forth) amongst guidance in recent days so forecast confidence Sunday is lower than normal. In the interest of rumor suppression, it continues to be worth mentioning that there has been no consistent guidance indicating tropical cyclone development at this time. That said, the wave will have the potential to become a flash flood threat across parts of the gulf coast by next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Weakness aloft has resulted in area showers and isolated thunderstorms to form across Gulf terminals with ceilings ranging from 2500 to 5000 feet. Expect this trend to continue with all terminals expecting at least vicinity thunderstorms through the early evening. With growing updrafts, tropical funnels will be possible through 20z or so, and when updrafts come crashing down, variable winds and heavy rain will be possible. After sundown, expect convective activity to diminish with light variable winds and generally VFR ceilings. Some guidance is hinting at light ground fog again overnight, but confidence is low. For now, mentions of this were not included in TAFs. 11/Calhoun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 66 89 66 88 / 20 10 0 10 LCH 72 91 70 90 / 30 30 10 20 LFT 73 92 71 91 / 30 30 10 20 BPT 73 93 72 91 / 30 30 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...11