Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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758 FXUS64 KLCH 160856 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The upper level remnants of Francine will continue to meander over the ArkLaMiss today while a weak, quasistationary frontal boundary continues to ebb and flow along the gulf coast with about 5 degrees of dewpoint differential on either side of it. Similar to the last two days, high res guidance is in good agreement on isolated to widely scattered convection developing in the vicinity of this boundary this afternoon and early evening with activity waning around sunset. By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the landfalling Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. This will pull the general weakness aloft a bit further to the east as a strong ridge axis nudges into east Texas. This will keep a lid on precip across Southeast Texas with isolated to scattered afternoon convection possible across south central Louisiana. Any convection that manages to materialize should dissipate again around sunset. The ridge will build further east into the area Wednesday which should keep the whole area dry. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through the period. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The second half of the week into the weekend will be dominated by a synoptic Omega pattern aloft. Ridging across much of the central U.S. will maintain no appreciable precip chances and mostly clear skies allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s each afternoon. This pattern begins to break down near the end of the forecast period as the ridge is shunted back south into Mexico. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Conditions to trend mainly VFR / MVFR with respect to ceilings through the remainder of the evening. That said, with some recent precipitation and low level inversion setting up as indicated on earlier upper air analysis, the environment should allow for patchy areas of FG or ground BR. Trending from the early twilight hours through sunrise, temporary reductions down to IFR are possible. Guidance has suggested more widespread development across SE Mississippi, then becoming patchy into central portions of Louisiana. Near the coast, signals are not is congruent, however, with calm VRB winds observational and anecdotal conditions suggest some temporary reductions in VIS are not out of the question for sites along / south of I-10. Additionally the other potential limiting factor will be lowered ceilings near daybreak where the nocturnal boundary layer will cap some low- level BKN clouds, again with best signals over south central Louisiana. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak pressure gradient across the gulf this week will keep winds light and seas low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the near shore waters this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 69 85 68 / 20 10 20 0 LCH 88 72 87 73 / 20 10 20 0 LFT 89 73 89 74 / 30 10 30 0 BPT 92 73 91 75 / 20 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66