262
FXUS65 KLKN 282030
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
130 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and isolated thunderstorms taper off heading
into the evening. Breezy northwest winds tomorrow may gust to
25-30 mph at times. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler
tomorrow before warming back into the 80s by Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday night.

Some instability has lead to cumulus buildups across central
Nevada progressing northeast into a more favorable environment
for shower and thunderstorm development. Models continue to show
an area of negative lifted indicies (LI) supporting vertical
motion. This area is located across much of Elko county and
extends into portions of Lander and Eureka. Isolated to scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to remain on track in
the forecast for this afternoon, dissipating heading into the
evening. Dew points in the 20s and 30s support most thunderstorms
being dry in nature. 12 LKN sounding data showed DCAPE values of
900J/kg. Model soundings show inverted-V soundings with DCAPE
values in the 900-1100J/kg range. Values this high combined with
previously mentioned low dew points support gusty and erratic
winds from collapsing updrafts. Highs this afternoon are generally
in the 80s across the area. With the trough expected to progress
east and veering winds to a northerly direction Wednesday,
temperatures are forecasted to be 5-10 degrees cooler, especially
across northern Nevada. Highs will remain in the low to mid 70s
for most. Afternoon winds will be breezy out of the northwest
gusting to 25-30 mph at times. Some isolated to scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms are forecasted tomorrow with much of
them remaining east of Wells in Elko county and Ely in White
Pine.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

Look for a mainly west to east flow to develop at the beginning
of the long term Thursday. Conditions will remain dry with highs
in the 70s and 80s and light winds. The weather will be quiet
during the overnight with lows in the 40s.

Friday through the weekend looks mainly dry as the flow remains
somewhat west to east, though models are showing weak trough
energy developing Saturday and Sunday, moving across the area. No
precipitation is anticipated though central Nevada could see an
increase in clouds and build-ups during each afternoon as a low-
level convergent axis sets up each afternoon along US Highway 50
as well as along the northern border with Idaho. Highs will be in
the 80s with some low 90s possible in far central Nevada.
Afternoon breezes to 25 mph will also develop. Look for quiet
conditions each evening with lows in the 40s.

Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue during the early
portions of next week. Highs will remain in the 80s to perhaps low
90s, while lows during the night will dip into the 40s. Winds will
be breezy each afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24
hours. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies during the early
evening with clouds scattering out during the overnight. Isolated,
convective cloud build-ups will also be possible with outflow
winds to 35 knots. There continues chances for ISOLD
TS at KEKO during the early evening and will keep the VCTS in the
TAF. Otherwise, very low potential for TS at KELY at 5% through
the early evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain
elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle
Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter
action stage later in the coming days.

Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next several days.

Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is
forecast to slowly fall below action stage later today.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/86/86