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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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436 FXUS64 KLZK 271124 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 624 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An upper level ridge is over New Mexico which is providing northwest flow over Arkansas. The upper ridge will move east tonight, will be over Arkansas by Friday morning, and will remain in place through Friday night. High pressure and subsidence will keep dry conditions over the state through Friday night. Warm conditions will continue today but warmer conditions are expected Friday as a warm front moves north through the state. Highs today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90 and in the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and in the 70s Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 SATURDAY/SUNDAY: In the upper lvls, the elongated ridge center will be positioned over a region from the Southern Plains eastward over Arkansas and into the Southeastern CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front will be approaching the state from the northwest on Saturday with the front moving through Arkansas during the day on Sunday. Expect an increase in POPs that will begin across northern Arkansas and spread southward along the frontal boundary during the day on Sunday. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the region of northern Arkansas on Saturday and transition into central and southern Arkansas during the day on Sunday. Temperatures in both terms of lows and highs over the weekend will begin on average 8 to 10 degrees above normal on Saturday and become cooler on Sunday as temperatures will remain near to just above normal by a few degrees compared to climatological normals. MONDAY/TUESDAY: In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge becomes placed directly over the Natural State. At the sfc, high pressure remains across the Mid-Western region of the CONUS as the state will be positioned between two dynamic synoptic systems. Expect hot and dry conditions with intense heat and heat index values moving back into Arkansas by Tuesday. Plentiful amounts of sunshine and nil chances for rainfall will be noted. Temperatures in both terms of lows and highs over the beginning of the workweek (Monday/Tuesday) will start near normal as the airmass behind the frontal boundary will be slightly cooler. However, by Tuesday, the airmass has modified back to around 10 degrees above normal with many locations across the state eclipsing the century mark on Tuesday. WEDNESDAY/LOOKING BEYOND: In the upper lvls, the center of the high pressure slides southward to position directly over the Deep South of the CONUS with a second ridge becoming amplified over the Western region of the CONUS with an approaching shortwave nearing the state on the northern periphery of the ridge. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the northwest and in cohesion with a sfc high pressure in the Mid- Atlantic region of the CONUS will usher moisture into the Natural State. Expect and increase of POP chances across northern and central portions of the CWA as we close in on Independence Day. Luckily, this appears to be isolated activity and not a widespread event at the current time so I wouldn`t cancel any plans for the Fourth of July holiday timeframe, but we will continue to monitor this period closely. Temperatures in both terms of lows and highs over the period of Wednesday and into Thursday will be on average 8 to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure continues to build into Arkansas. Winds will continue out of the north. VFR conditions will continue through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 67 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 91 68 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 88 66 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 92 68 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 91 72 96 79 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 89 72 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 91 66 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 88 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 90 68 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 90 70 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 91 69 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 91 68 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 89 71 92 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...51