839
FXUS64 KMEG 150201
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
901 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SKies are clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A warm summer night is
in store for the region with lows Saturday morning in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Current forecast looks good with no update
needed.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Dry and progressively hotter conditions will persist through Sunday.
Rain chances return early next week resulting in a slight relief
from hotter temperatures. Hot and more humid conditions will
return in the latter part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Current satellite imagery denotes remnant clouds pushing southeast
over the Mid-South brought in from this morning`s decaying MCS.
Otherwise, light and variable winds remain under mostly clear
skies as a 1014 mb high remains fixed over the ArkLaMiss. A chance
for sporadic fog development exists once again overnight, as
winds go calm, in areas east of the Mississippi River, primarily
in low-lying areas.

Beginning early tomorrow morning, a relatively large mid-level ridge
will begin building in over the region. This will lead to hotter
and drier conditions for tomorrow and Sunday. A hot airmass will
also move in to place and remain through the weekend. Highs
Saturday will be in the low to upper 90s with heat indices likely
reaching the triple digits in areas along and south of the
Tennessee and Mississippi state line. Our hottest day of 2024
will exist on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 90s as the
aforementioned mid-level ridge continues to build east and
amplify. Heat indices will likely reach into the triple digits
across the entire Mid-South Sunday as continue to temperatures
climb. One thing to note about our weekend heat: heat indices will
likely not meet or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (>105 degrees F)
as dew points are not expected to exceed the low to mid 70s both
Saturday and Sunday. Even if heat products are not issued, we
still strongly advise limiting outdoor activities and taking
frequent breaks as we head into the weekend.

Slight relief from the heat will return Monday as the mid-level
ridge moves east and continues to amplify over the east coast. As
the ridge builds east, Gulf moisture will edge in increasing our
moisture profile here in the Mid-South. Rain chances also return as
Gulf moisture is ushered in. 20-30% PoPs remain in the forecast
Monday and Tuesday to account for this moisture return along with
southerly flow. Though rain chances remain on the lower end
heading towards the latter part of next week, diurnally driven
pop-up convection will be possible each afternoon. Ample moisture
will also lead to more humid conditions in the latter part of next
week. Hot and humid conditions may result in a need for heat
headlines late next week. The CPC 8-14 day outlook has us above
normal through the end of June. Needless to say, Summer has
arrived and is here to stay.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

No significant aviation weather impacts expected. Light winds and
VFR will prevail, courtesy of high pressure aloft and at the
surface.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB