307
FXUS62 KMFL 281906
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today as troughing
moves into the eastern US displacing the mid-lvl ridge which had
been in place over our area the last couple days. At the same time
a weak cold front will shift into the vicinity of Northern
Florida and then largely stall north of the area for much of the
upcoming week. A warm and moist airmass will be in place over SFL
with highs once again increasing well into the 90s area-wide and
peak heat indices into the triple digits. Heat indices may
increase over 105 degrees over portions of the area, with some
potential for some sites over the east coast meeting heat advisory
criteria, however, ongoing convective initiation and cloud cover
will limit the duration component of our heat criteria. The low-
lvl mean flow will still have a mean westerly component, making
the east coast sea breeze once again the main forcing mechanism
for convection and also focusing the highest rain chances over the
eastern Interior and east coast metro. Deep-layer flow will
remain weak (albeit increasing slightly as a shortwave approaches)
so don`t expect convection to be particularly organized, although
strong winds from individual cell microbursts will remain a
threat given steep low-lvl lapse rates and DCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg. Cooling temperatures aloft (particularly over Palm Beach
county) will result in some hail potential as well, although not
particularly confident in the large hail potential.

The overall synoptic setup will be pretty similar on Wednesday
with the stalled front remaining north of the area, local winds
being largely driven by sea-breeze circulations, and hot
temperatures persisting. Convection will once again be sea-breeze
driven although spatial coverage may be a little more equitable as
westerly synoptic flow weakens allowing for greater inland
progression of the sea breeze. Convective coverage and intensity
may be marginally lower than today given the lack of shortwave
forcing and somewhat warmer mid-lvl temperatures, however on the
whole scattered coverage (i.e. 35-50 PoPs) seem reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Longwave troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through most
of the long term period and then several shortwave segments will
pass through the Florida Peninsula heading into next week. Easterly
flow looks to begin establishing itself over South Florida for
Thursday and Friday, though it will be on the weaker side.
Nevertheless, scattered convection will initiate in the afternoon
both Thursday and Friday with the focus of that expected for the
interior and west coast areas under the low level easterly flow. The
stationary boundary will remain north of the area through Friday,
keeping generally hot conditions across the area. East coast areas
will likely be a few degrees cooler given easterly flow and sea
breeze effects.

Over the weekend and into next week, high pressure will strengthen
off the coast of the Carolinas with easterly flow becoming
increasingly breezy. In addition, this will cause the stalled
frontal boundary to shift southwards as a weak backdoor cold front
on Saturday which should bring some relief from the increased heat.
Thunderstorm chances will be reduced behind the boundary as more
stable air filters in, although moisture will be high enough for
some quick-moving coastal convergence induced showers and pop-up
storms along the sea/gulf breezes. With stronger easterly flow, the
focus for most convection over the weekend will be for interior and
west coast areas.&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Some sub VFR periods will be possible with VCSH/TS over the
Atlantic sites through this evening and may result in TEMPOs.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
period. SE winds around 10kt along the Atlantic sites, with the
westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Winds go light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through at least the
middle of the week over the Atlantic waters, while the Gulf
waters will see more westerly winds, particularly over the near-
shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of the
Gulf breeze. Seas will remain 3 feet or less through the period.
Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through the mid-week period resulting in brief periods of locally
hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  93  77  91 /  50  50  20  30
West Kendall     75  95  74  93 /  40  40  20  30
Opa-Locka        77  95  76  93 /  50  40  20  30
Homestead        77  93  75  91 /  40  40  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  91  78  90 /  60  40  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  93  77  90 /  60  40  20  20
Pembroke Pines   78  96  77  95 /  50  40  20  20
West Palm Beach  75  93  75  91 /  60  30  20  10
Boca Raton       77  93  76  91 /  60  40  20  20
Naples           77  93  76  95 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver