664
FXUS62 KMLB 250234
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1034 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The east coast sea breeze over-performed a bit, pushing winds to
15-20 mph with higher gusts for a few hours after 5 PM. This was
higher than pretty much all guidance, with only the NBM 90th
percentile coming close, so updated winds through the evening with
that plus a few upward nudges, then diminishing through the late
evening and early overnight, which has been working out pretty
well. Conversely, PoPs under- performed due to high bias in the
NBM. Updated PoPs with latest high-res guidance which brought them
down a fair amount to 30-50 pct in the late afternoon, decreasing
through the evening to 20-30 pct across the interior by 10 PM,
and a few showers lingering after midnight before a mostly dry
rest of the night. No changes to the rest of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 808 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Mainly VFR conditions Tuesday morning. TS/SH has underperformed
for the most part this afternoon, so pulled TEMPOs and stuck with
just VCTS through 02Z at the inland terminals (VCSH to 04Z at
KLEE) for TS/SH INVOF the sea breeze collision between KLEE and
KMCO/KISM. On the other hand, ECSB overperformed a little briefly
increasing winds to 15-20 kts late this afternoon, which have
settled to 10-15 kts, and are still expected to become light
overnight. Light SW-W flow Tuesday will favor the WCSB and slow
the ECSB. Coastal terminals turn onshore around or a little
afternoon, while inland terminals remain somewhat light and
variable. Slightly higher coverage of TS/SH forecast INVOF the
inland terminals Tuesday, with bulk of activity staying west of
the coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain over the local
waters while shifting slightly south and eastward. Winds will be
southerly flow into this evening, with winds shifting southwest
overnight. Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft
across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible
through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface
ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on
Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore
southwest to west component into mid week. Seas will generally be
2 ft with seas up to 3ft well offshore. Deep moisture will
continue to promote higher coverage of showers and lightning
storms across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  30  70
MCO  77  93  76  92 /  30  70  30  70
MLB  76  91  75  91 /  10  70  30  70
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
LEE  77  95  77  93 /  40  70  30  70
SFB  77  94  75  93 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  77  94  77  92 /  30  70  30  70
FPR  74  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley