957
FXUS62 KMLB 150600
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions through tonight, with some model guidance hinting
at MVFR conditions along the coast later this morning. However,
confidence was not high this will occur, so have left it out for
the time being. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the
period outside of convection. Light and variable winds tonight
will increase to 5-10 KT by late morning and become E/SE from
ISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB- TIX, and W/SW from MLB- VRB-FPR-SUA.
SCT/NUM SHRA and ISM/SCT TSRA in the afternoon. Have included
VCTS for all sites starting at 20Z for all inland terminals and
DAB, starting at 18/19Z for coastal terminals from TIX southward.
Have not included any TEMPOs as of yet for Saturday`s convection.
Activity will dissipate or move away from the local area shortly
after sunset. Winds will become light and variable once again
overnight Saturday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Shower and storm activity has diminished across east central
Florida this evening, with most activity shifting westward across
the peninsula. Model guidance continues to indicate limited
chances for continued development overnight, so went ahead and
reduced rain chances quite a bit across southern portions of the
forecast area. In general, a 15 to 25 percent chance of rainfall
from the Orlando metro to Melbourne and areas southward remains,
though confidence in even this remains low.

Outside of the rain chances, the forecast for east central Florida
remains on track with minimal adjustments. Winds are forecast to
become light and variable tonight, with skies remaining mostly
cloudy across the south. Less cloud coverage across the Volusia
area and even northern Lake County could lead to some patchy fog
development as hinted at by guidance. Any fog that does manage to
develop will diminish near to shortly after sunrise. Overnight
lows will remain in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Today-Tonight (modified previous discussion)... Invest 90L will
continues to move N/NE away from the eastern US coast. The
Stationary front will remain in place across central Florida. Seas
1-2ft across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore
waters. East winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer offshore
overnight. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and
scattered lightning storms will continue this evening as deep
tropical moisture remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral
southward.

Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)... The stationary
front will remain in place across central Florida through the
early part of the weekend before gradually fading into the latter
part of the weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE
through Sunday, remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure
will build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on
Sunday and continue through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday
will veer E/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
forms. Onshore flow will develop on Sunday and continue through
early week as the high pressure builds over the local area. Breezy
conditions are forecast early next week, with speeds generally
10-15 KT will 15-20 KT possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday
afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms will continue each day, especially across the southern
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  89  76 /  30  10  20  20
MCO  89  74  89  75 /  60  20  40  10
MLB  88  74  88  77 /  60  20  40  30
VRB  88  73  88  76 /  60  20  30  20
LEE  92  76  92  75 /  50  10  40  10
SFB  91  74  91  75 /  50  10  40  10
ORL  90  75  91  75 /  60  20  40  10
FPR  87  72  88  75 /  60  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Watson