991
FXUS62 KMLB 271743
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
143 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Iso/sct convection has initiated generally west of SFB/DAB early
this afternoon, which will bring very brief vis/cig reductions to
interior terminals over the next few hours as activity drifts
eastward. By 19Z, coverage is anticipated to increase, with a more
robust boundary collision occurring near MCO/ISM later this
afternoon. The line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
towards the coast, bringing MVFR/IFR reductions to TIX south to SUA
through 23Z with erratic gusty winds anticipated. Opted to add TEMPO
mention for all sites with the 18Z package, especially based on
current radar trends. Activity will move offshore by 00Z. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Isolated to scattered showers streaming across western Florida
from the GOMEX this morning, with some of the activity pushing
into east central Florida, mainly into Lake/N Volusia. West to
southwest flow will persist today, albeit slightly stronger than
previous days, as the ridge axis of high pressure over the west
Atlantic stays south of the region today. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push inland.
However, due to the stronger offshore flow, the sea breeze may be
pinned closer to the coast, and may not develop at all north of
Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and lightning storms will
develop through the afternoon ahead of the west coast breeze,
with highest coverage (PoP 60 percent) of showers and storms this
afternoon and into early evening will be along the I-95 corridor
as boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze occur.
Lingering drier air aloft will favor a few stronger storms
possible this afternoon/evening. Main storm threats will be
frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Locally
heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also be possible in any
stronger or slower moving storms. Hot and humid conditions once
again today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat
indices of 102-107 degrees. Forecast remains on track with only
minor adjustments of rain chances through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area
today, which will lead to a continued W/SW flow through this morning
around 10 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE this afternoon and remain
around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze forms, but remains
pinned toward the coast. Seas will range from 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving storms are forecast, especially from mid
afternoon through early evening. Some may produce strong gusty winds
and frequent lightning strikes as they move off the coast into the
nearshore waters.

Friday-Monday...Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but
remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward
into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week.
Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5-
10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms
and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at
times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible
each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  92 /  20  60  30  60
MCO  76  93  77  92 /  10  60  20  60
MLB  76  92  77  90 /  30  50  40  50
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
LEE  77  93  78  93 /  10  60  20  60
SFB  76  93  77  93 /  10  60  30  60
ORL  77  93  78  92 /  10  60  20  60
FPR  74  93  75  90 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper