936
FXUS66 KMTR 071038
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
338 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely
near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging
redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as
they did the last few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today remained fairly warm inland with temperatures ranging from the
mid 80s to upper 90s to low 100s in the mountain ranges. Along the
coast, cooler temperatures prevailed with highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. In general, temperatures for most areas were cooler today
than they were yesterday with the end of the heat wave in sight and
the heat advisory set to expire tonight.

Beginning Friday, seasonal to slightly above average highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s are expected inland while coastal areas
continue lingering in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Stratus is expected
to return along coastal areas tonight with elevated fog chances in
the North Bay (particularly for Santa Rosa) and within the Monterey
Bay. For early morning commuters, if you encounter fog while driving
remember to slow down and account for extra time to reach your
destination.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A look at nighttime satellite this morning shows stratus
trickling down the Salinas valley, and attempting to reach up into
the SF Bay Area. An "otter eddy" can be seen swirling about the
Monterey Bay as stratus continues to feed in. Elsewhere, skies are
clear and temperatures comfortable in the mid 50s for most
locations. Speaking of more comfortable temperatures, highs today
will largely be in the low to mid 80s for inland regions, mid to
upper 70s for the SF bay region, and closer to the low 60s for the
coastline. This cooldown comes as a upper level shortwave trough
moves through the region today bringing relief to many regions.
Temperatures will largely be close to seasonal averages, perhaps
just 2-3 degrees above normal for far southern Monterey county and
the northern extremes of Napa and Sonoma counties.

The cooling trend continues into the weekend as models show good
agreement in an upper level trough developing Saturday. This will
also usher in mid to high level clouds that will dot the sky, with
coastal stratus becoming more widespread. The extent of stratus
along the coastline will be helpful in keeping temperatures on the
cooler side through the early part of the day, around 5-10 degrees
lower than normal in some spots. Along the coastline, high temps
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Further inland on Saturday and
Sunday, highs will generally be in the low 80s, with a few
particular warm spots closest to the Central Valley seeing the upper
80s. This upper level trough will also help create breezier
conditions in the afternoons, largely in the Salinas valley and the
SF Bay counties bordering the delta region. Wind gusts towards the
20-25 mph mark in this favored areas are possible, but then ease
into the nighttime.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Starting Monday, the trough begins to be cut off, eventually forming
a cut-off low. This transient low, without any good steering
mechanism, lingers through the mid to late week to our southwest
before exiting off to the east in the later week, lifting into our
region as it does so. Despite this lingering feature, models
indicate slight ridging developing into the early week which will
help to warm temperatures once more. However, as it currently
stands, the warmth will likely not be the the levels seen previously
this week. Low to mid 90s for the inland regions Monday and Tuesday
are forecast, with mid 60s to the lowest 70s at the coast. Tuesday
currently appears to be the warmest day, with high temperatures
generally about 10 degrees above normal for inland locations.
Wednesday, slight cooling returns with high temperatures receding by
a few degrees. This cooling trend persists through the remainder of
the week as the pesky low reconnects with the jet stream and lifts
out to the east.

More zonal flow (west to east) develops over our
region in the late week next week. Current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks suggest near normal temperatures for our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 947 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Poor flying conditions will continue at Monterey Bay terminals
through a good portion of the day on Friday (especially at SNS).
VFR was noted at other terminals, but MVFR ceiling/IFR visibility
is forecast to set in by sunrise Friday at just about all
terminals except SJC and LVK. The potential for MVFR has increased
at SJC, however, the chances remain under 20%. Confidence is
medium on ceiling and the visibility forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR continued this evening, though by sunrise
Friday, MVFR stratus is forecast to be entrenched across the SF
Peninsula. Guidance continues to support mostly MVFR
ceilings/visibility, though an hour or two of IFR cigs/vsby cannot
be completely discounted. There still appears to be an
opportunity for a return to VFR during the afternoon with MVFR
resuming quickly near or just after sundown and continue into the
pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO, though the onset/cessation
time for MVFR stratus may differ by up to an hour.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The poorest flying conditions are
forecast at the Monterey Bay airfields. IFR is well entrenched
across the area, though visibility has been slow to drop. Model
trends still support IFR visibility, though it appears to be a
a little too pessimistic. The current TAF set will advertise
visibility down to 1 SM. VFR is forecast to at MRY, though SNS may
remain MVFR...potentially IFR...through the entire TAF period. If
the marine layer is a bit more established at MRY, VFR may not
return in the afternoon as currently advertised.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Areas of fog and drizzle will cause reduced visibility through
the morning across Monterey Bay and along the Big Sur Coast.
Winds and seas will remain hazardous for areas along and north of
the Greater Farallones through Friday afternoon where Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to subside below 20 knots and 10 feet, respectively. This
will be relatively short lived as 20-25 knot winds increase
during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Seas will respond later
Sunday morning and into the afternoon, likely necessitating
additional marine headlines.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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