237
FXUS66 KMTR 111752
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1052 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

 - Well above normal temperatures through the forecast period

 - Widespread minor HeatRisk through Saturday, areas of moderate
   HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(Today through Friday)

Our region will be on the eastern periphery of upper-level shortwave
ridging across the Eastern Pacific Ocean through Thursday. As a
result, a quick warmup will ensue with temperatures around 15
degrees above normal away from the immediate coast. Fortunately the
location of the ridge will still allow for onshore flow which will
keep things comfortable at night and temperatures from running away.
The only record high in jeopardy in the short term is SJC on
Thursday with a maximum temperature forecast of 81 degrees which
would tie the record from 2007. A passing subtle upper-level
shortwave trough will tamp down the ridge and reinforce onshore
flow, pressing pause on the warming trend on Friday. Of most impact
in the short term will be minor HeatRisk. To mitigate your risk:
increase hydration with water, reduce time spent outdoors or stay
in the shade when the sun is strongest, and open windows at night
and use fans to bring cooler air inside buildings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(Saturday through Tuesday)

Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high
amplitude upper-level longwave ridge will begin to move into the
region from the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. As the
aforementioned ridge encroaches our area Sunday, this will veer
winds to become northerly which will only act to further warm and
dry the region. The axis is expected to be overhead on Tuesday,
which will yield the hottest day of the forecast period. While
beyond the official seven day forecast, there is uncertainty in the
evolution of the ridge. Even with the uncertainty, global ensemble
clusters illustrate that it is likely that we will be dealing with
anomalously high heights through Thursday of next week. To put this
into context, we will be in record breaking territory Sunday through
Tuesday. This is not just with temperatures (read the CLIMATE
section below), but monthly records for 850 mb temperatures and 500
mb heights which are both good indicators for the type of air mass
that we are dealing with. Impacts wise, widespread minor HeatRisk on
Saturday will give way to areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through
Tuesday. To mitigate your risk: reduce time in the sun during the
warmest part of the day, stay hydrated with water, stay in a cool
place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler
times of the day, and for those without a/c, use fans to keep air
moving and open windows at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Mostly moderate winds build in the mid
afternoon, staying below 15 kts for most areas. Winds reduce into
the evening and night, becoming light across the region. Moderate
winds return Thursday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate west winds
build in the mid afternoon, peaking around 13 kts. These winds
linger into the night before becoming light. Winds build again into
Thursday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate
northwest winds last into the evening and early night before becoming
light.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Breezy to gusty north winds continue to affect the outer waters,
causing rough seas. Expect these winds to last through the weekend
with some of the inner waters being affected over the weekend
itself. Winds and seas ease into the next work week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 12th, 15th, 16th and 17th.

Location         Mar 12      Mar 15      Mar 16      Mar 17

Santa Rosa       83 in 2007  88 in 2004  91 in 2004  87 in 1996
San Rafael       81 in 2007  83 in 1972  87 in 1972  84 in 1972
Kentfield        83 in 2005  85 in 2004  86 in 2004  87 in 1914
Napa             86 in 2005  86 in 2004  88 in 2004  92 in 1914
Richmond         81 in 2005  85 in 2004  84 in 1972  83 in 2004
Livermore        84 in 1916  83 in 1972  88 in 1972  87 in 1972
San Francisco    79 in 2007  82 in 2004  85 in 1914  85 in 1914
SFO Airport      77 in 2007  81 in 2004  82 in 2004  82 in 2004
Redwood City     83 in 2005  84 in 2004  84 in 2004  85 in 2004
Half Moon Bay    75 in 2014  74 in 1974  78 in 1972  83 in 2004
Oakland Museum   80 in 2007  85 in 2004  85 in 2004  85 in 2004
San Jose         81 in 2007  82 in 2004  85 in 1914  88 in 1914
Salinas Airport  83 in 2007  83 in 1972  87 in 2004  87 in 2004

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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