Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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506 FXUS63 KOAX 260718 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 218 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate flood stage is ongoing or expected to begin along the Missouri River the next day or two. It`s forecast to last into early next week for areas south of Omaha. See the hydrology section for more details. - Another storm system Thursday into Friday will bring several rounds of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, and heavy rain to the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Busy night at OAX continues with Tuesday eve`s severe weather seemingly making the most of the extremely unstable airmass in place earlier today. As of 2:15 AM, what may be the last of the warnings are lit up along the KS state line. Upscale growth has left damaging wind gust the primary threat as the storms quickly push southeast. Expect to see the last of the convection leave the area by about 3am. In the system`s wake, drier conditions are anticipated both in the form of clearing skies and slipping dewpoints. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid to upper-80s and close to seasonal norms. This represents a drop of 5-15 degrees from Tuesday. The day should be rather pleasant considering what page of the calendar is showing. Northerly winds 5-15 mph will slowly veer with southerly return flow developing by early Thursday morning. High temperatures will be encumbered by broken to overcast skies in response to the approach of the next shortwave. Scattered showers are possible through the day with the passage of the warm front. What a day! Highs will peak near 80! Few will be disappointed. Severe weather may develop by Thursday night. Convection north and west of here is expected to grow upscale and work southeast through central or perhaps eastern Nebraska aided by the summer LLJ. Best chance of severe weather will wait for this MCS`s arrival after midnight. Friday will bring the attendant cold front through the area after seeing southerly winds drive dewpoints back above 70. Highs may sneak into the low 90s for areas south of I-80 before the frontal passage. If the front passes early enough, it`ll leave the best PoPs/severe threat southeast of this CWA. Few will be disappointed. Two more cooler but sunny days coincide with a weekend sure to be booked with plenty of outdoor activities. Highs on Saturday and Sunday are expected to hit a zenith just on either side of 80F. Few will be disappointed. The polar jet`s amplified pattern should leave plenty of opportunities to see summer convection next week with Monday night currently showing the greatest promise as a negatively titled trof ejects from the PNW. Expect confidence in timing and placement to grow as we approach the weekend. Appreciate the cooler weather forecast over the next few days as CPC suggests the first two weeks of July lean warmer than normal as does July as a whole and the remainder of summer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Severe thunderstorms continue across the area overnight, generally moving southeast. Believe OFK is out of the woods for now. OMA has seen regular redevelopment throughout the evening. This may continue through about 2am before storms push southeast. Have added the storms for the same period at LNK as latest guidance has storms clipping the aerodrome there. Primary concern with these storms will be an increasing damaging wind threat with gusts up to 70mph possible as storms grow into a cluster and speed up as they push southeast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .The Little Sioux River... Minor flood stage was reached on the Little Sioux at the Turin gauge just after 7 PM Monday evening with a crest on Tuesday afternoon just above 27 feet. A levee breach upstream has left the crest in minor flooding territory. Current forecasts have the Little Sioux at Turin dropping below flood stage by Thursday afternoon. .The Missouri River... The Missouri River at the Decatur gage is currently reading 37.42 feet. This should be near crest as the river is expected to remain in minor flood stage for the duration of the flooding event which should last through the day today before ending on Thursday. Farther south, moderate flood stage is either ongoing or expected to begin later this week, as water levels at all river gauges from Blair south continue to rise. River levels at Omaha should crest Thursday evening. Current guidance has this crest at 35.1 feet. Trends in gauge data suggest this crest may lag a little later, potentially featuring a slightly lower yet prolonged crest on Friday. Worth noting: QPE over the past 12 hours has likely outpaced QPF, so an updated river forecast may be needed later today. The Missouri River crest will take several days to work its way down the Nebraska-Iowa and Nebraska-Missouri border. The Missouri River at Rulo should crest in moderate flood stage on Sunday and drop below flood stage by next Tuesday. Additional information can be found at water.noaa.gov && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen HYDROLOGY...Nicolaisen