904
FXUS64 KOUN 071734
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into western Kansas from
eastern Colorado, and additional showers have been developing
recently in the north central Texas panhandle and central
Oklahoma panhandle. These have not been predicted by most of the
models, although the 00Z HiRes-FV3 and 06Z NAM did hint of them
albeit not exactly in the right place. Cloud top are cooling
slowly. A couple of small showers have developed in Garvin County
and in southern Pushmataha County where there had been no
significant model signal for any convection this morning. Clouds
tops are still relatively warm in these areas. So, confidence is
not high on any model having a good handle on the short-term
evolution. Have kept some low POPs spreading east across northern
Oklahoma this morning for the convection in western Kansas
perhaps developing southward toward the area, and will watch radar
and mesoanalysis trends to see if we may see persistence in the
south central/southeast Oklahoma convection or the north central
Texas panhandle convection.

Tonight there is a stronger and more consistent signal among the
models of convection developing across the northern panhandles and
southwest Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, and
spreading east into northwestern Oklahoma. The upper flow and the
projected path of the shortwave looks like much of the
precipitation will be in Kansas once we get into the late evening,
but it`s worth keeping some POPs in northern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The relatively weak mid-level ridge from Texas toward New Mexico
never builds strongly into the area, and we remain close enough to
the mid-level flow to get a series of shortwaves riding over the
ridge over the next few days. Potentially stronger waves are
projected to move through Saturday night and Sunday night that
both look to develop afternoon storms on the High Plains of
Colorado and then push thunderstorms toward the area overnight. On
Saturday night, the storms will initially primarily be in
northern Oklahoma, although they may spread south into central
Oklahoma early Sunday morning as a surface cold front moves south.
Sunday night`s wave looks to be farther south as it moves across
the area and bring higher chances throughout the forecast area.
After this, there are more significant differences in the medium-
range models. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a strong mid-level low
over Manitoba or Saskatchewan on Saturday with a west-east trough
axis across southern Canada. The GFS brings this low into the
northern U.S. Plains and then southeast into the central
Mississippi Valley area by Monday night. With this, the surface
front gets pushed to our south well into Texas. But the ECMWF has
this mid-level low wobbling over the southern Canadian prairie
provinces into early next week and therefore not pushing cooler
air very far south. The main impact on these differences will be
how long precip chances linger into Monday night/Tuesday, and the
high temperatures on Tuesday and right now the NBM is going for a
middle ground.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR category is expected at most terminals during the period.
Areas of widely scattered precipitation/thunder continue to decay
across portions of western/northern Oklahoma early this
afternoon. Showers/storms in the vicinity of CSM/PNC cannot be
ruled out this afternoon, though probability is too low for
mention at this update.

Otherwise, an additional semi-organized round of convection is
expected to spread into portions of northern/north-central
Oklahoma this evening (after 00-02 UTC/8th). Impact is most likely
at WWR, though at least some chance will continue towards
northeastern Oklahoma early on Saturday morning. Low-level wind
shear is also expected at most sites early Saturday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  96  72  88 /  10   0  10  40
Hobart OK         76 100  73  91 /   0   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  75  95 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           72  99  65  80 /  30  20  50  30
Ponca City OK     73  99  69  81 /  20  20  40  40
Durant OK         73  94  72  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...34