Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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107 FXUS64 KOUN 142318 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The area of rain and storms early this morning across parts of western Kansas and the Panhandles continues to dissipate. A MCV just north of DDC is moving to the east, but it appears unlikely this feature will have much impact on the weather in northwestern Oklahoma. Additional storms are developing near the Texas/New Mexico state line and farther to the west. Lift associated with a shortwave trough just beginning to enter western Colorado/New Mexico will aid in further development through the afternoon. By mid to late evening, it possible that some of the convection developing to our west will enter mainly northwest Oklahoma, but chances are on the low side. Gusty winds are possible, but not as strong as yesterday evening. Unlike today, a breezy southerly wind is expected Saturday in response to the aforementioned shortwave lifting across the central Plains Saturday afternoon/night. This will certainly provide some relief from the afternoon heat and humidity. With the timing of the shortwave trough, storms may develop earlier in the afternoon across mainly northwest Oklahoma, but expect better storm coverage to our north. Afternoon convection should also develop to our west and this may enter parts of western and northern Oklahoma during the late afternoon/evening. Strong winds are possible with some of the storms. Will have to see if a strong low level jet will keep a few storms organized past mid- evening or if they dissipate near sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 After the shortwave trough moves northeast of the southern Plains, the area will generally be between a mid and upper level ridge to our east, and a trough to the west. This overall pattern will generally remain in place through at least the middle of next week. Daily thunderstorms chances will remain on the low side through this period. However, parts of southeast and western Oklahoma will likely have better opportunities for some rain. Generally Monday through Tuesday, weak disturbances may skirt western Oklahoma where the mid-level flow (west to southwest) will be slightly stronger. This may result in late afternoon and evening storms moving into far western Oklahoma from West Texas. There is also a chance of at least one or two disturbances moving around the western periphery of the ridge. This may bring showers and storms to mainly the eastern third of Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 There is the potential of some scattered showers in northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, and have a PROB30 group at KWWR for these. Showers and thunderstorms this evening are expected to remain west of the TAF sites. Otherwise generally mid and high level clouds and no significant aviation concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 92 74 93 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 71 95 72 94 / 0 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 95 70 96 / 20 30 30 0 Ponca City OK 71 95 73 95 / 0 0 20 0 Durant OK 69 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...26