Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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581 FXUS63 KPAH 280452 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The humidity returns Friday with heat indices back around 100. - Shower and storm chances return on Saturday and linger into the first half of Sunday. Another rain chance returns Wednesday. - Pattern into next week features a battle between oppressive heat and short periods of relief in between. Saturday and Wednesday are forecast to be the most uncomfortable days of the next week. The 4th of July looks stormy for now. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Warm and less humid today following the passage of a "cooler than it was" front yesterday. Mid 70s dewpoints are not far away however and should pick up where they left off tomorrow. Heat indices will push to near or slightly above 100 by tomorrow afternoon. A residual 700mb inversion and poor mid-level lapse rates should prevent much in the way of shower/storm development despite the moisture advection. An upper/mid level shortwave trough passes to the north Friday night into Saturday which sends a "cold" front towards the area once again. The lower level flow gets pretty parallel to the front by the time it arrives and it looks like it could slow down/stall or become pretty ineffective at clearing out the higher dewpoints through Sunday. The pattern looks relatively favorable for MCS development, especially to our northwest Friday night. Deep layer shear is fairly good, with MLCAPEs at about 2500 J/kg by the afternoon, assuming we don`t get a morning MCS clearing things out. I think thunderstorms are a pretty good bet Saturday but timing them will be difficult. If we don`t end up with clouds and storms the heat index will be a front row factor as it won`t take much with mid 70s dewpoints to get into advisory territory (105 F). For now lingered PoPs on Sunday given the lingering moisture. Things do clear out more definitively Sunday night into Monday, with Monday looking a lot like today. Moisture/humidity returns by Tuesday with another broader/stronger upper trough beginning to approach. This sets us up for now with a fairly stormy 4th of July forecast across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Surface ridging will remain to the northeast providing light winds overnight and clear skies. Surface flow increases from the south by the afternoon, generally between 5-10 knots. VFR conditions will continue. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...RST